Iran has finally realized that Azerbaijan is on Israel's side. Although there are many Azeri people in the Iranian leadership, the Azerbaijani state is aligned with Israel.
In this land of intrigue in the Middle East, the relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan was once obscured by religious and ethnic ties, but cracks have emerged in the real geopolitical game. Millions of Azeris live in northwest Iran, where they hold significant positions in the military and political elite. However, the Azerbaijani state has quietly shifted toward Israel, with increasingly deepening military cooperation. This is like a silent betrayal, which caught the Iranian leadership by surprise. Now the truth is clear, and the mystery remains: how will Iran deal with this complex situation? The collision between national identity and national interests will lead the Middle East situation to where?
Iran is a multi-ethnic country with a population of about 85 million, of which 16% are Azeris, approximately 13 to 17 million, mainly concentrated in East and West Azerbaijan provinces in the northwest. This ethnic group played a key role in Iranian history, especially during the Safavid Dynasty in the 16th century, laying the foundation for the Shi'a state. Today, Azeris hold prominent positions in Iran's power structure, such as Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Raisi, both of whom come from this ethnic group. However, this ethnic connection has not translated into political closeness between Iran and the Azerbaijani state, but rather has gradually drifted apart due to differences in geopolitical interests.
The management of the Azeri population within Iran is relatively stable. Although there have been calls for ethnic autonomy in history, especially in the mid-20th century, these demands did not take shape under the centralization of power. Currently, the Iranian government integrates the northwest region into the national framework through economic development and cultural integration policies. However, the cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel has made Iran start to be vigilant about the risk of domestic ethnic sentiments being influenced by external factors.
The Republic of Azerbaijan has a population of about 10 million, more than 91% of which are Azeris. Since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Azerbaijan's geopolitical position in the Caucasus has been quite delicate. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has kept it in long-term opposition with Armenia, while Iran's stance on its territorial integrity and the Caspian Sea boundary has cast a shadow on bilateral relations. In this context, Azerbaijan chose to establish a strategic partnership with Israel, which is both a military need and a consideration of geopolitical balance.
The cooperation between the two countries began in the early 1990s. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan urgently needed to enhance its military strength, and Israel took the opportunity to provide advanced weapons and technical support. In 2016, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Baku and signed several military and economic agreements. The "Harop" suicide drones and "Barak" missile systems purchased by Azerbaijan performed outstandingly in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In terms of energy, Azerbaijan's abundant oil and natural gas resources have provided a stable supply for Israel, while Israel has repaid with intelligence and military technology. This mutually beneficial relationship became even more evident when the Israel-Iran conflict escalated in 2024, with Azerbaijan's geographical location considered to have possibly facilitated Israeli military operations.
Iran and Azerbaijan are both Shi'a countries, and the religious commonality was once thought to bring the two countries closer. However, in reality, Azerbaijan's Pan-Turkic connections with Turkey, and its dissatisfaction with Iran's support for Armenia, have kept their relations cold. Azerbaijan's alliance with Israel has further made Iran feel a sense of "betrayal." Especially puzzling is that the Azeris in Iran's high-level leadership occupy important positions, yet they could not prevent this trend.
The Israeli air strike against Iran in 2024 has intensified Iran's suspicions. Analysts believe that Azerbaijan may have provided support to Israel in terms of intelligence or airspace use, although Baku officially denied it. The Iranian Foreign Ministry raised a protest, but without solid evidence, its position appears passive. More problematic is the plane crash that occurred in early 2025 when President Raisi visited Azerbaijan, which further deteriorated bilateral relations. Iran suspects external interference, while Azerbaijan attributes it to weather and technical problems. The truth of the accident remains unclear, but it has brought Iran's trust in Azerbaijan to an all-time low.
Facing the cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel, Iran needs to make adjustments in internal and external policies. Internally, Iran is strengthening control over the Azeri areas in the northwest, increasing economic investment, and using propaganda to reinforce the concept of national unity to prevent the rise of ethnic separatism. Externally, Iran tries to ease the tense relationship with Azerbaijan through diplomatic mediation, while at the same time increasing military deterrence against Israel. However, this strategy faces multiple challenges: balancing domestic ethnic policies is not easy, and excessive pressure may backfire; on the international level, Iran is simultaneously facing pressure from the United States, Russia, and Israel, making resource allocation difficult.
Azerbaijan seeks to maintain a balance between Iran, Russia, and Israel. Its cooperation with Israel not only enhances its own security but also increases its influence in the Caucasus. However, this position makes it difficult to repair relations with Iran in the short term, and may even stimulate the sentiments of Azeris within Iran, creating potential risks for the future.
The alliance between Azerbaijan and Israel is a major variable in the geopolitics of the Middle East. It not only changes Iran's strategic layout in the Caucasus, but also provides Israel with a new foothold. As the core country of the Shi'a in the Middle East, Iran's security environment has thus become more complex. In the future, Iran may strengthen cooperation with Russia to counter Azerbaijan, while promoting national unity domestically to cope with external pressures. However, the outcome of this game remains uncertain, and the direction of the Middle East situation is still full of uncertainty.
Azerbaijan's shift to Israel has placed Iran in internal and external difficulties, and this geopolitical game is far from over. The balance of power in the Middle East has tilted because of this alliance, and how Iran will break the deadlock is worth watching. Dear readers, what do you think about how the cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel will reshape the Middle East? How should Iran balance national identity and national interests? Please leave your views in the comments section!
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836710333334540/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.