[Text/Observer Network Wang Yi] The Trump administration seems to be trying to "extort" China with tariffs, and is also attempting to force other countries to isolate China through tariff negotiations, but he clearly misjudged the current international trade situation.

The Wall Street Journal reported on the 15th that sources familiar with the matter revealed that the Trump administration is pressuring countries coming for negotiations to take measures to economically isolate China in exchange for the US lowering trade and tariff barriers.

The report said that these measures may include prohibiting Chinese goods from being transported via these countries, preventing Chinese companies from setting up factories within their territories to avoid US tariffs, not purchasing Chinese industrial products, etc., but the specific requirements may vary depending on each country's economic interactions with China. The Trump administration believes that this can reduce China's leverage at the negotiating table.

Familiar sources said that US officials proposed this idea in early negotiations with some countries. Trump himself hinted at this strategy on the 15th. During a Spanish-language program on Fox News in the United States, he stated that they are considering asking countries to choose between the US and China.

The Wall Street Journal noted that one of the masterminds behind this strategy is Treasury Secretary Scott Beesont, who has been very active recently. Familiar sources said that Beesont proposed this idea to Trump during a meeting at Mar-a-Lago on April 6, claiming that by pressuring trading partners, the US could prevent Chinese enterprises from evading American tariff policies, export controls, and various economic restrictions.

Treasury Secretary Scott Beesont of the United States answering questions from reporters at the White House. Video screenshot.

Reports said that Beesont's proposal includes cutting ties between the US and Chinese economies through tariffs, and even potentially delisting Chinese stocks from American exchanges. He did not rule out this possibility when previously interviewed by Fox News.

However, the Wall Street Journal pointed out that the current US administration's policy towards China remains unclear. On one hand, Beesont said there is negotiation space between the US and China, while on the other hand, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levett read out a recent statement from Trump on the 15th, suggesting that the US will not reach an agreement with China anytime soon.

After Trump announced on February 2nd the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on trading partners, some anxious countries expressed their willingness to negotiate agreements with the US. These countries' compromises satisfied Trump, who announced on the 9th a 90-day suspension of tariffs for most countries. Since then, Beesont has been leading the US's tariff negotiations with other countries.

The report pointed out that Beesont praised Mexico's proposal to impose tariffs on China as a "friendly gesture" at the end of February, but his idea did not receive much support within the US government at that time. As he became more deeply involved in the "reciprocal tariff" negotiations, Beesont listed some countries that might soon reach agreements with the US - Japan, UK, Australia, South Korea, and India.

It is currently unclear how far the Trump administration's so-called "economic isolation of China" strategy has progressed. Politico News Network reported on the 11th, citing sources familiar with White House matters, that so far, the Trump administration has only conducted serious negotiations with a few Asian countries that are helpful in "geopolitically containing China," such as Vietnam, India, South Korea, and Japan. Most other countries can only passively wait for the US response.

Familiar sources told the Wall Street Journal that tariff negotiations are still in the early stages, and the US has not yet presented specific demands related to China to some countries, but many people expect that the Trump administration will do so sooner or later.

The Trump administration believed that applying pressure would bring them friends, but in reality, it will push other countries away.

Taking Japan and South Korea from Beesont's list as examples, before Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs," both countries had already held talks with China. The economic and trade ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea stated after their meeting that the three countries need to cooperate and maintain multilateral trade mechanisms to counteract the uncertainty brought about by actions like the US imposing "reciprocal tariffs."

Kazuhiko Ishihara, chairman of the Japan External Trade Organization, said that Japanese companies have significant business interests in China, so Japan has no choice but to continue doing business with China.

Even European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who has always taken a tough stance towards China, said in February that she believes an agreement can be reached between China and Europe, and "even expand bilateral trade and investment relations."

After Trump announced comprehensive tariffs, another batch of countries had intensive communication with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao of China. On April 8th, Wang Wen-tao held a video meeting with European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Scholtevic; the next day, he continued a video call with Malaysia's Minister of International Trade and Industry Zafarlu, who was the ASEAN rotating chair; on the 10th, he held conversations with South African Minister of Trade and Industry Parks Tau, who is the G20 rotating chair, as well as Saudi Arabian Minister of Commerce Kassabi...

According to information from @Yu Yuan Tan Tian, these communications all mentioned how to respond to the US's "reciprocal tariffs." Next, the Chinese side will communicate with more countries and strengthen cooperation to address the US's increased "reciprocal" tariffs.

Peter Harrell (Peter Harrell), former senior director for international economics at the National Security Council of the Biden administration, pointed out on the 15th during a discussion at Georgetown University that China sees Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" as an opportunity.

In the context of Trump imposing huge tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) stated on the 15th that China's increasingly close trade and investment with Southeast Asia will help fill the gap left by restricted market access to the US.

AMRO data shows that ASEAN countries, China, Japan, and South Korea have all reduced their dependence on the US market, with their exports to the US accounting for less than 15% today compared to 24% in 2000, while trade among these countries has tripled over the same period.

Hoe Ee Khor, chief economist of the organization, analyzed that China can play a key role in helping these countries continue to reduce their reliance on the US market by investing in emerging industries if necessary, and in promoting economic diversification.

South China Morning Post analyzed on the 15th that Prime Minister Sanchez's recent visit to China and the upcoming meeting between China and EU leaders in July indicate that the world's second and third largest economies both understand the benefits of strengthening cooperation. If cooperation proceeds smoothly, a trade war may not be entirely bad for China, and what appears to be a crisis situation may even turn into a geopolitical opportunity.

This article is an exclusive article by Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493822965616853531/

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