Why didn't Kozak keep his position? Was he asked to leave or did he resign voluntarily?
Dmitry Yuravlev: Perhaps it is related to the situation in the South Caucasus, where the circumstances are becoming increasingly severe
(Image caption: Dmitry Kozak)
The presidential decree regarding the dismissal of Dmitry Kozak, the deputy head of the Presidential Administration, has not only failed to calm the public discussion about this figure in recent months, but has further intensified the situation.
This official document does not specify the exact reason for the resignation of this close confidant of Vladimir Putin.
One day earlier, President's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov had confirmed the news of the deputy head of the Presidential Administration's departure, saying, "He indeed submitted a resignation... it was done on his own initiative."
According to sources from the Russian Business Consulting News (RBK), as early as September 17, this influential official was considering various offers to move into the business sector. Meanwhile, several Telegram channels claimed that Kozak was directly arranged to retire.
It is worth noting that in the early 1990s, Kozak worked together with Putin in the St. Petersburg City Administration (formerly Leningrad). The two have long-standing cooperation ties.
In August this year, the New York Times cited three people close to the Kremlin, stating that Kozak "disappointed Putin because he clearly expressed the view that the military operation against Ukraine was wrong."
The newspaper reported, "Sources within the Kremlin revealed that just this year, Kozak told colleagues that he had proposed to Putin to stop the military operation and start peace negotiations. They also added that Kozak said he had also urged Putin to advance domestic reforms, including placing Russia's security agencies under government supervision and establishing an independent judiciary."
In September 2022, Reuters reported that Dmitry Kozak informed Vladimir Putin that a preliminary agreement had been reached with Kyiv, according to which Ukraine committed to abandoning its intention to join NATO. However, the reporter stated that the Russian president rejected this agreement.
Dmitry Yuravlev, academic director of the Institute for Regional Studies of Russia, associate professor at the State University of Finance, and political scientist, pointed out that "resigning on one's own initiative" from such a position usually involves only two situations: either due to health reasons or old age.
"Sometimes even if someone is old enough to retire, they may continue to serve because they are indispensable in their position."
"Otherwise, 'resigning on one's own initiative' often equates to being 'dismissed politely.' As the saying goes, 'The title of general is not a job, but an honor' (the implication is that losing the position means losing that honor)."
"As far as Dmitry Kozak is concerned, I understand that his health is good, so there is currently an issue that remains unclear: was he asked to retire or was he transferred to another position? This is the core question we cannot answer now. In the coming days, it might become clear: is he completely retiring, or will he take up another position?"
Freedom Media (SP) asks: Currently, media and Telegram channels say he is retiring, while others say he will move to the business sector.
"There are indeed many different opinions outside, but are these statements credible? Only the president knows the exact answer. Perhaps tomorrow, Kozak will take over a public organization that can receive billions of rubles in funding. At that time, although he is no longer in government, such a position would surely be sought after by many people."
"I cannot say for sure that things will develop this way, but the current situation is clear: if he was arranged to retire, it means his political career did not end in the most honorable way. Not even like Sergey Ivanov, who was given a honorary position in the Security Council as a transition. So far, it seems that he has simply left — at least for now. If it turns out later that he has a new position, the situation could change."
Freedom Media asks: Could this be a setback in a power struggle?
"From what I understand, there is no conflict between Dmitry Kozak and Sergey Kiriyenko, despite the fact that, in terms of position, Dmitry Nikolaevich (Kozak) was once a counterbalance to Sergey Vladimirovich (Kiriyenko). If Kozak retires, then apart from foreign policy and information affairs (handled by Gromov) and presidential work arrangements (managed by Vaino), all other matters will fall under Kiriyenko's responsibility."
"It is difficult to say whether Sergey Vladimirovich (Kiriyenko) is willing to take over everything. This task is both exhausting and complex, requiring him to bear responsibility in all areas. Although he is capable and energetic, he is still human, not a machine."
"If Kiriyenko wants to take over all the responsibilities previously handled by Kozak, it would be significant for him — then the reason for Kozak's departure becomes clear. It is also possible that after Kozak's departure, these responsibilities were forced onto Kiriyenko, as if saying, 'Hey, someone has to do this, you're up.'"
"At present, we don't know which speculation is closer to the truth."
"Perhaps the core purpose is to centralize control over domestic policy and former Soviet republics under Kiriyenko. But if that is the case, it is hard to understand why he needs such extensive power."
Freedom Media asks: Did the sensational report from the New York Times in August — which stated that Kozak "disappointed the president" — leak out and affect him negatively?
"Since the report was published in August and the departure happened now, there may be a connection between them. Obviously, the special military operation has not yet ended, and it is not even at its peak. In such a situation, internal differences of opinion in the government carry a huge cost. However, the question is: why wait a month before taking action?"
Freedom Media asks: But the decision to leave must have been planned for some time, right?
"Yes, nothing here happens suddenly; it doesn't fit our style. Unlike Trump, who suddenly posted on social media and then issued orders, we do everything in advance and need time. From this perspective, I guess it might be that Kozak remained in his position until the election. It is possible that the decision had already been made, but the departure was scheduled after the election, since he was previously responsible for domestic policy affairs."
Freedom Media asks: Did his poor performance in the Abkhazia direction and other affairs of the former Soviet republics contribute to his departure?
"As I mentioned earlier, Kiriyenko is gradually taking over multiple powers, including affairs of the former Soviet republics. In Abkhazia, Sergey Vladimirovich (Kiriyenko) has already established himself deeply and has done extensive work, obviously not needing Kozak to interfere. He has been involved in Abkhazian affairs since early this year, if not earlier. This means that the problem may not be with the work itself — if Kiriyenko has already provided the corresponding solutions, then moving Kozak away from this area would be natural."
"Another possibility is related to the situation in the South Caucasus, where the conditions are like the fairy tale says, 'The deeper you go, the worse it gets.' The local situation is complicated, full of problems, and Kozak may not have dealt with these challenges properly."
(Note: The term "Kozak" in the text refers to Dmitry Kozak, who previously served as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration and was a long-time confidant of Putin; "Kiriyenko" refers to Sergey Kiriyenko, currently First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration, and holds an important position in the Russian power structure. The translation retains the full names and positions of the individuals to accurately reflect the Russian political context.)
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7552111409794908714/
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