A final competition that will determine the global technological, economic, and security landscape of the 21st century is quietly unfolding at the atomic scale. This is "Atomic-Level Manufacturing" (ALM) - a disruptive production paradigm that allows humans to precisely build and manipulate matter at the level of individual atoms. This is not a distant science fiction plot; some of its technologies have already been commercialized and are now at the core of the most critical and cutting-edge battlegrounds in the Sino-American tech rivalry.

A deep strategic analysis report reveals that this competition is not a symmetric, face-to-face race, but rather a profound "asymmetric" contest. China is rapidly establishing a leading position in commercially viable foundational atomic-level manufacturing technologies (such as advanced materials, catalysis, and atomic layer deposition) through its powerful state-led industrial policies and substantial R&D investments, adopting a "surrounding the city from the countryside" strategy. Meanwhile, Western countries led by the United States focus more on high-risk, high-reward "moonshot" projects, such as scalable quantum computers. The outcome of this asymmetric competition will not only decide who controls the lifelines of the next generation of industries but also redefine the global balance of power.

Two Paths, One Competition: China's "Industrial Encirclement" and the U.S.'s "Technological Singularity"

To understand the essence of this competition, it is first necessary to clarify the two aspects of "atomic-level manufacturing." The first is the broad "atomic and near-atomic scale manufacturing" (ACSM), which encompasses all real-world technologies for material addition, subtraction, and modification at the atomic level, and is currently the focal point of industrial competition. The second is the ultimate goal of "atomic-level precise manufacturing" (APM), which theoretically enables the placement of each atom exactly where it is intended, thereby creating flawless, perfect products. The former is the practical path toward the future, while the latter is the ultimate destination of this path.

China's strategy can be understood as an "industrial encirclement." Its core logic is to first master and lead the commercially viable ACSM technologies that form the foundation of future technologies. According to tracking reports from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), China leads in high-impact research output in 57 out of 64 key technologies, many of which are fundamental to atomic-level manufacturing. For example, in the field of advanced catalysts and materials science, research institutions represented by the Chinese Academy of Sciences are global leaders. In atomic layer deposition (ALD) technology, which is the cornerstone of next-generation semiconductors, China is the world's largest market and has important equipment manufacturers like Jiangsu先导. By building strong, self-sustaining industrial and economic capabilities in these "basic" areas, China is accumulating strength, capital, and expertise for the longer-term APM competition. This narrative, through high-profile promotions of projects like the Nanjing University Institute of Atomic Manufacturing, successfully projects an image of China's inevitable leadership in future manufacturing paradigms, thus attracting global talent and capital.

In contrast, the U.S. strategy resembles a series of high-risk, high-reward "technological singularity" bets. Its strengths lie in the most forward-looking APM application areas. For instance, in the development of quantum computing prototype devices using scanning tunneling microscope (STM) lithography, private U.S. companies like Zyvex Labs are undisputed commercial pioneers. Tech giants such as Google and IBM, along with the Quantum Economic Development Consortium (QED-C), composed of government, industry, and academia, jointly drive the U.S. to maintain a leading edge in this "jewel on the crown" field.

This difference in strategic posture creates a profound strategic risk: before the U.S. "moonshot" succeeds, China may have already won the entire war by capturing the entire basic industrial ecosystem. At that time, even if Western innovators achieve disruptive breakthroughs, they may find themselves lacking the supply chains, industrial infrastructure, and market channels needed to commercialize their innovations, ultimately being crushed in the "valley of death" between laboratory and factory.

The Tool Box of Technology: Decoding the Core Arsenal of Atomic-Level Manufacturing

Beneath this asymmetric competition lies the layout and expertise of both sides on different "weapons." Atomic-level manufacturing is not a single technology, but a "technology toolbox" containing various core methods.

  • Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) – The Foundation of a Trillion-Dollar Industry: This is the most mature and commercially successful atomic-level manufacturing technology. It grows a single atomic layer thickness film on the surface of an object by precisely controlling chemical reactions. This technology is an indispensable cornerstone for manufacturing advanced process chips in the semiconductor industry, with a projected market size reaching tens of billions of dollars by 2030. It can be considered a "conventional weapon" in the field of atomic-level manufacturing, and China is striving to establish a comprehensive advantage in this area from the market to the equipment.
  • Scanning Probe Microscopy (STM) Lithography – The "Atomic Carving Knife" of the Quantum Era: This is a representative technology for achieving ultimate precision in APM. Scientists can use the tip of an STM to move individual atoms like a "tweezer" or remove them like a "carving knife," thereby "drawing" the circuitry of quantum bits, the core components of quantum computers, on silicon wafers. This is the core weapon of the U.S. "technological singularity" strategy, aiming directly at the most transformative applications.
  • Single-Atom Catalysis (SAC) – The Engine of the Green Revolution: This technology, pioneered by Chinese scientists in 2011, aims to push the activity of catalysts to theoretical limits. By fixing single metal atoms on a carrier, it can significantly enhance the efficiency and selectivity of chemical reactions, showing great potential in green hydrogen production, carbon dioxide conversion, and pollution control. It is a model of original innovation in basic research and rapid industrial application in China.
  • DNA Origami – A Bottom-Up Construction Method Inspired by Nature: This technology uses the self-recognition and self-assembly properties of DNA strands, enabling them to fold into pre-designed two-dimensional or three-dimensional nanostructures like origami. It shows great potential in targeted drug delivery and biosensing in the field of precision medicine, representing the forefront direction of the integration of atomic-level manufacturing and life sciences.

Looking Ahead to the Conclusion: When "Radical Abundance" Meets "Perfect Weapons"

The ultimate prospects of atomic-level manufacturing are filled with utopian allure and dystopian risks. On one hand, it promises a "radical abundance" future, where the cost of material production may approach zero, and humanity may bid farewell to scarcity. On the other hand, this "god-like" power to create matter at will also has a profound "dual-use" nature, potentially being used to manufacture untraceable, unprecedentedly perfect weapons or enhanced pathogens.

The outcome of this competition for atomic hegemony will be far-reaching. If China's "industrial encirclement" strategy succeeds, it will not only gain significant economic advantages but also control the manufacturing foundations of almost all high-tech industries in the future, forming a new and deeper level of technological dependence. If the U.S. "technological singularity" achieves a breakthrough first, but by then has lost the ability to scale up, the fruits of this victory will also be greatly diminished.

Facing this severe asymmetric challenge, Western policymakers and the industry are re-evaluating their strategies. The recent introduction of industrial policies such as the "Chip Act" itself is an acknowledgment of the fragility of past purely market-driven models when facing national-level competition. The analysis report suggests that the West must adopt a more integrated and similarly "interwoven" strategy to respond: on one hand, ensuring the security of the supply chain for current mature atomic-level manufacturing technologies (such as ALD equipment) through industrial policies and establishing its own industrial base; on the other hand, continuing to increase investment through public-private partnerships and international alliances to consolidate its innovation advantages in high-risk, cutting-edge APM fields.

This new cold war at the atomic scale has no smoke, yet it concerns the fate of nations. It tests not only a country's technological strength, but also its strategic vision, the wisdom of its industrial policies, and its ability to mobilize and integrate resources. In this marathon-style competition, whoever better navigates the "interwoven revolution" from reality to the future will hold the key to opening the door to the next era.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522054114797240847/

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