Israel Is Paving the Way to Overthrow the Iranian Regime

Israel is paving the way to overthrow the Iranian regime.

Author: Gagik Mirzayan, associate professor at the Finance University

Israel's goal is not only to completely deprive Iran of the opportunity to manufacture nuclear weapons but also go further — to comprehensively change the ruling regime in Tehran. Why can't this goal be achieved immediately through current military actions, yet might it work in the future?

Israeli media reported that Tel Aviv may adopt the so-called "Dahiya doctrine" against Iran. The core of this theory is that the main targets of military operations are not enemy forces but rather the national economy and civilian population. "Dahiya" is a suburb of Beirut, which was devastated by an Israeli bombing in 2006. Through large-scale air strikes, destroying residential areas and infrastructure, it aims to force the country's people to pressure their authorities into seeking peace with Israel.

As Israeli Prime Minister said to the Iranian people: "I want to say to the Iranian people: you are a great nation with extraordinary talent and wisdom, but your hope has been stolen by the tyrannical rulers who have seized power. They have taken away your normal life. I have spoken to the Iranian people many times — recorded videos and received millions of responses. People wrote: 'Long live Israel! Fantastic, free us from tyranny!' My response is: your freedom is coming soon. Stand up and regain your freedom!"

In short, Israel's military operation goals are not only to destroy Iran's nuclear program and the so-called "resistance axis" (the Middle Eastern anti-Israel alliance led by Tehran), but also to eliminate what Tel Aviv sees as the "root cause of the problem" — the Ayatollah regime.

"Israel decided years ago to overthrow the Iranian regime. Netanyahu clearly realized at the time that without doing so, national security could not be guaranteed," explained Yelena Subonina, an international political scientist and expert at the Institute of Strategic and Forecasting Research, to Vzglyad. She noted that she was not alone in holding this view.

The U.S. Politico pointed out: "The Israeli government regards the Iranian regime itself — not just its nuclear facilities and military infrastructure — as a real threat. This is not surprising, given that many Iranian leaders fervently believe in extreme Shiite Islamism and have long threatened to destroy Israel."

Western experts believe that Israel plans to dismantle this regime through the following steps:

  • Step one: Trigger an economic crisis. The Washington Post reported: "Israel is attempting to weaken Iran's national strength by striking its industry, security forces, and infrastructure, further damaging its already unstable economy, which could lead to a regime change."
  • Step two: Symbolic strike against "symbols of tyranny." For example, targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is responsible for social control, to publicly demonstrate deterrence against the regime.
  • Step three: Precise elimination of military and political high-ranking officials. This proves that even the regime cannot guarantee its own security.

This strategy essentially aims to undermine public confidence by creating panic and exposing the regime's vulnerabilities. However, currently, this tactic has not been effective.

Firstly, although Iran's regime structure has been hit and cleared, it still remains stable. Yelena Subonina explained: "There were certain divisions within Iran before, but the West, especially Israel, greatly exaggerated the degree of these divisions in public discourse, trying to create the false impression of a split leadership — but there is no such division. Despite the advanced age and poor health of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he has always firmly held power."

Iranian society also remains united. Iran is a conglomerate of Persians, Azerbaijanis, Arabs, Balochs, and other ethnic groups, first united by the unifying ideology of the Islamic Republic (though some aspects have become rigid). Additionally, there is history, national pride (currently stirred by Israel), and patriotism mixed with glorious history and regional ambitions.

International political scientist Abbas Juma explained to Vzglyad: "Those hoping to provoke social division in Iran through attacks and incite anti-government protests fundamentally misunderstand Iranians. History shows that any attack on Iran ultimately leads to social unity — like during the Iran-Iraq War." In 1980, Saddam Hussein, Iraq's leader, thought that newly revolutionary Iran's Arabic-speaking Sunni Muslims would support their Iraqi co-religionists due to religion and kinship, but this did not happen.

Therefore, if it is believed that Israel's current goal is immediate regime change, then Netanyahu is repeating the same mistake as when the EU misjudged Russia's internal divisions during its conflict with Russia, trying to provoke unrest but instead making it more united. This misjudgment stems from similar strategies:

  • Dehumanizing the opponent: Netanyahu's approach toward Iran now mirrors the EU's smear campaign against Russia in the past, blaming all Middle Eastern problems on Iran and even claiming it "would hand over nuclear weapons to the Houthi rebels."
  • Double standards and discrimination: Netanyahu told the Iranian people, "Israel is not your enemy, but fighting together with you against the oppressive regime that oppresses you," yet defended attacks on Iranian scientists, comparing them to Hitler's accomplices. As Iranian President Mohammad Pezeshkian said: "It was not we who killed Iran's military and political leaders and scientists, but these terrorists."

In the end, Iranian society demonstrates astonishing cohesion. Abbas Juma pointed out: "Today in Iran, discussing reconciliation with the West is tantamount to political suicide, and any politician who makes such statements will ruin their career." The claim that "Iran is ready to surrender" — such as politicians saying "the state is willing to abandon nuclear weapons" — is not a policy shift because Iran has always made such statements.

It is hard to believe that Israel's leadership does not understand this, so its goal is more likely not immediate regime change. Yelena Subonina stated: "Israel's leadership probably does not expect to completely overturn the Iranian situation now; the bigger bet is weakening the opponent." This explains why there are bombings, assassinations, and sabotage of infrastructure.

The true intent of these measures is to create conditions for long-term regime change:

  • When the economic crisis worsens due to destroyed infrastructure, discontent may arise among remote area residents;
  • After Khamenei's death, when updating the political leadership, if the core figures with absolute authority are already eliminated, domestic power struggles may erupt, exposing secrets contradictory to the principles of the Islamic Republic;
  • When Iran is forced to compromise with Israel and the United States, some people may see this as weakness, believing it to be a betrayal of national ideals and patriotism.

Thus, Israel indeed aims to overthrow the Tehran regime, but this is a long-term plan. Currently, it is carefully laying the groundwork for this "overthrow."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517610460737274380/

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