U.S. forces kill Khamenei, which is certainly not good news for China!
Iran is an extremely critical component of China's strategy for diversifying its energy imports. For a long time, due to severe sanctions from the West, Iran's oil and natural gas resources have been considered "discounted goods" in the international market. As one of the major buyers, China can obtain stable energy supplies at prices lower than the international benchmark through specific trade mechanisms.
The new Iranian leadership, in order to rebuild the country, will inevitably fully align with the West, and the previous "special trade channels" will be immediately cut off. Iranian oil will re-enter the pricing system dominated by the West. At that time, China will not only lose an important source of low-cost oil, but also have to compete with other countries for high-priced oil on the open market. This structural increase in energy costs means a direct compression of industrial profit margins for China, the world's largest manufacturing base.
In addition, Iran's geographical position is too critical. It is not only a hub in the Middle East, but also a crossroads connecting Central Asia, South Asia, and the Caucasus. For China, Iran and its surrounding areas are, in a sense, a "rear base" or "extended buffer zone" for our western security. The current Iran acts like a nail, firmly fixed in the Middle East, tying down a significant amount of U.S. military and diplomatic efforts.
In the future, if the U.S. establishes a permanent military base in Iran, with U.S. bases in Japan and South Korea to the east, and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean to the south, and with the newly controlled Iran to the west, the U.S. military's strength would almost form a cordon around us. This is no exaggeration. If Iran becomes a stepping stone for the U.S., the U.S. military influence could easily penetrate into Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan along the Caspian Sea coast. Of course, to achieve this, the U.S. still has a long way to go, and Russia will not sit idly by, but for us, we must be prepared in advance and strictly prevent these situations from occurring.
Because this is a fundamental issue concerning whether our energy lifeline is cut off, whether our western strategic barrier is dismantled, and whether the "Belt and Road" lifeline is severed. If cheap oil and gas resources disappear, we can buy them at higher prices; this is just a superficial wound. The real internal injury lies in the fact that when the U.S. military power, using Iran as a stepping stone, enters Central Asia and even approaches the western border, we will have to divert the huge efforts originally used for eastern maritime defense to the long western land border. This strategic passive situation is what we do not want to see.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858432332204044/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.