The National Interest, a U.S. think tank website, published an article titled "How to Solve America's Ship Problem" on April 14. The author is Kent E. Calder. Here is an excerpt from the article:

Three major policy failures can explain America's "ship problem": insufficient industrial investment, reluctance to accept technological transformation, and regulatory obstacles.

Winston Churchill described logistics in war as "the root of victory." Even in the age of automation, ships remain at the core of national security logistics, let alone naval warfare itself. However, today the United States faces a thorny "ship problem," which quietly threatens Washington's dominant position in world affairs.

Dominance of Northeast Asian shipbuilding industry

The crux of America's "ship problem" lies in its shipbuilding industry. Despite having the strongest navy in the world, by 2024 the U.S. will have built only 107 ships, approximately one-fourth of Japan's output of 387 ships and one-third of South Korea's output of 316 ships. The U.S. ranks nineteenth globally in shipbuilding, accounting for only 0.2% of global shipbuilding orders.

China, America's main competitor on global shipping routes, is also the largest shipbuilder in the world, with its merchant fleet tonnage accounting for 50% of the global total. Its production exceeds the combined output of the two next-largest shipbuilders—America's allies South Korea and Japan. By the end of 2023, China had 370 platforms, while the U.S. Navy had only 291. The U.S. Naval Intelligence predicts that by 2030, China will have 425 combat vessels.

Leading Northeast Asia in commercial shipbuilding, the region also holds significant importance. The five largest shipyards in the world are all located in China, with the largest owned by China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC). CSSC is a major defense contractor and produces about 80% of China's main naval equipment. The second, third, and fourth largest shipyards are held by South Korean shipyards, with two Japanese companies also ranking among the top ten.

The large scale and intense competition in Northeast Asia's commercial shipbuilding industry ultimately enhance defense capabilities. In contrast, despite possessing potential in skilled labor, engineering talent, and technical maturity, America's shipbuilding industry lacks such scale and competitiveness.

Slump in shipbuilding and shipping industries

America's "ship problem" is not limited to shipbuilding but extends to the shipping industry as well. Although the U.S. occupies an important position in two niche service areas related to shipping—offshore vessels like drilling platforms and ferry and cruise services—it ranks lower in other categories. In fact, in terms of capacity ownership calculated by tonnage, the U.S. ranks eleventh globally, performing weakly in the three major shipping categories—dry bulk carriers, tankers, and container ships. These three categories together account for 85% of the global merchant fleet. In these most commercially significant fields—container shipping—the tonnage owned and operated by China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan exceeds that of the U.S.

Container shipping is the cheapest and most reasonable method of international cargo transportation, with an annual growth rate of nearly 12%. "Containerization" was invented by Malcolm McLean, an American, and promoted by American companies during the Vietnam War for military logistics, enabling the U.S. to maintain a supply of up to 540,000 soldiers over several years of fighting. After the war, American companies licensed their technology overseas but neglected domestic civilian applications. Meanwhile, with government support, Asian companies transformed container shipping into civilian use, significantly promoting their global export growth.

Like American shipbuilders, American shipping companies once dominated globally until Asia took the lead. In 1946, the U.S. owned the largest merchant fleet in the world, with more than 5,000 ships, accounting for two-thirds of the global total tonnage. In 1960, the U.S. merchant fleet still accounted for 16% of the global total. This figure dropped to 8% in 1970, 4% in 1980, and now stands at only 0.2%. Meanwhile, China Ocean Shipping Group has become the fourth-largest container shipping company globally, with two Taiwanese companies and one South Korean company also ranking among the top ten. The largest American shipping company, Matson Navigation Company, ranks twenty-eighth globally.

Few ports

Like shipbuilding and shipping, the U.S. once had advanced high-quality ports, but now most ports are long-term low-standard facilities. Due to economies of scale and technological advancements determining productivity, the U.S. has been slow to respond to cutting-edge developments. The two largest container ports in the U.S.—Los Angeles Port and Long Beach Port—are currently ranked seventeenth and twenty-second globally, respectively. The highly anticipated Port Authority of New York and New Jersey ranks twenty-fourth globally.

In contrast, Shanghai Port ranks first globally, with seven of the world's top ten ports located in China. Chinese mega-ports also lead the world in container transport efficiency and automation levels. China has applied its advanced port development and management technologies globally, developing efficient and flexible supply chain logistics in both civilian and military domains—as Churchill understood—with potential. In contrast, the U.S. has largely abandoned its strategic international port construction and management policies it pioneered a century ago—represented by the Panama Canal.

For the U.S. and its allies, the collective cost of failure in shipbuilding, shipping, and port development is a strategic nightmare of immeasurable proportions.

"Linguistics Research | Compiled Translation"

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493216902844514866/

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