Key Minerals in Africa: China's Investment in Mali's Lithium Mines, Mining Revenue Expected to Rise Significantly by 2026

¬ In 2024, gold revenue accounted for 40.93% of Mali’s national fiscal income, reaching a record high and solidifying its central role in the country’s economy

¬ Rising gold prices and mining reforms are expected to significantly boost government revenue by 2026

¬ Income growth depends on the recovery of mineral production and effective control of security risks

In 2024, revenue collected from extractive industries in Mali’s national budget reached 978.29 billion CFA francs (approximately $1.728 billion), representing 40.93% of total public revenue that year. Given that gold prices have been rising steadily for over a year, how much more could gold contribute to Mali’s public finances by 2026?

According to a report released in March 2026 by the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), extractive industry revenue reached a historic high in 2024, compared to 27.81% in 2023 and 34.8% in 2022. In 2024, the sector accounted for 78.8% of Mali’s total exports, with gold remaining the country’s largest export product.

The commissioning of two lithium mines has not fundamentally altered Mali’s reliance on gold. The Goulamina lithium mine, operated by China’s Ganfeng Lithium, began operations in December 2024, followed by the Bougouni lithium mine, operated by UK-based Kodal Mining Company, which started production in February 2025. These two mines have placed Mali among Africa’s leading lithium producers, but their contribution to fiscal revenue remains negligible compared to the scale of the gold industry.

Potential Impact of Positive Mining Reforms

The record-breaking performance in 2024 was primarily driven by a strategic initiative aimed at increasing the state’s share in mining value. The 2023 Mining Law raised the public participation rate in mining projects from 20% to 35%, with 5% reserved specifically for local investors. Following an audit of the sector, the government initiated renegotiation procedures with multiple operators. According to the EITI report, these renegotiations enabled the government to recover 331.64 billion CFA francs—less than the 500 billion CFA francs cited by Minister of Economy and Finance Alousseni Sanou, but sufficient evidence of the government’s efforts to reclaim greater mining revenues.

Gold prices in 2024 were already favorable, further boosting these gains. Data from the World Gold Council shows that gold prices hit 53 new record highs in 2025, with an average annual price of $3,431 per ounce—a 44% increase from the previous year. While final EITI data for 2025 has not yet been released, recent information indicates that gold producers operating in Mali paid 888.5 billion CFA francs in that period.

Although gold prices rose by about 70% in 2025, declining output limited revenue growth; nonetheless, revenue still increased by 6.4% year-on-year. Long-standing disputes between the Malian government and Barrick Gold Corporation over the implementation of the new Mining Law led to the shutdown of Mali’s largest gold mine—the Loulo-Gounkoto gold mine. Industrial gold production in Mali fell by 22.9% in 2025 to 42.2 metric tons, down from an estimated 54.8 metric tons in 2024. Eventually, a compromise was reached between the Malian government and Barrick, and the Loulo-Gounkoto mine resumed production by the end of 2025.

2026: Recovery Prospects Remain Uncertain

Mali entered 2026 under conditions showing some more positive signals both in production and market trends. In the first quarter of 2026, Barrick’s gold output reached 80,000 ounces, with a full-year target exceeding 360,000 ounces. According to World Bank projections, gold prices rose 17% sequentially in the first quarter of 2026, with prices surpassing $5,000 per ounce in February. Bretton Woods institutions forecast an average annual gold price growth rate of 37% for the full year.

In summary, these trends present Mali with a tangible opportunity to substantially increase public revenue derived from gold. The International Monetary Fund forecasts Mali’s economic growth rate for 2026 at 5.5%, partly due to the recovery in gold production. Whether this projection can be realized will depend on the operational performance of the Loulo-Gounkoto mine and other mines across Mali, while terrorist threats remain a persistent risk facing the country’s mining sector.

Source: ecofinagency

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1867999573953674/

Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author