According to Indian media The Print on August 14, US Treasury Secretary Bensons warned that if Trump's meeting with Putin in Alaska does not go smoothly, India should be prepared for higher collective sanctions.

This warning probably leaves Modi confused, as the Ukraine-Russia war is a confrontation between Russia and the West. India has not joined the war and is not a party to it, yet it has repeatedly been targeted as a victim of retaliation.

American logic remains unchanged, shifting the responsibility for the failure of pressure on Russia onto India, implying that if New Delhi buys fewer barrels of Russian oil, Putin will lay down his arms and surrender.

But the key point is that India is not the only one buying Russian oil. India is also a partner of the United States. What is meant by partnership? Why has it become a repeated target of retaliation?

Bensons

Trump's insistence on targeting India is actually not complicated behind the scenes.

India's purchase of Russian oil is indeed a sin, but the US may care more about something else: it is not that India provides money to Russia, but that India resells cheap Russian oil to Europe, making profits without giving anything to the US, and even taking away the US's energy export business. It must be dealt with.

Secondly, it's about Trump's economic warfare. In Trump's view, any country with a trade surplus against the US becomes a target. And India just happens to have all these: it has a trade surplus, and it stubbornly holds on to its agricultural and dairy markets, refusing to make concessions.

Finally, from Trump's personal style, he has always liked to use punitive measures as a bargaining chip, especially with countries like India, which have little ability to fight back and consider themselves great powers. There would be no serious consequences, only results that satisfy himself.

Under this logic, India becomes the ideal target for action.

Modi

To the Trump administration, India is indeed an easy target that can be squeezed at will.

This is not because India is really weak, but because in America's calculation, pressuring India is low-cost and high-reward.

India is neither an enemy nor a staunch ally; the cost of suppression is controllable.

The US clearly knows that although India claims strategic autonomy, it relies heavily on the US market for exports. Industries such as information technology, pharmaceuticals, and textiles maintain employment through US orders.

In terms of geopolitics, the US's demand for India is not irreplaceable. Japan, Australia, Vietnam, and even European countries can take over.

Therefore, the US dares to punish India through various means, forcing New Delhi to make concessions to the US.

The so-called soft plum refers to this kind of pressure object with low risk and high reward: when the US takes action once, it can gain some benefits, without worrying about severe backlash.

Modi and Trump

Why India has ended up in this situation is also a problem that cannot be ignored: it has gradually narrowed its own path.

India has always dreamed of getting benefits from both sides: enjoying the benefits of the US-India strategic cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, while consuming large amounts of Russian oil for energy, and maintaining protectionism in the economy.

The result is that when facing someone like Trump, who doesn't care about reason, you have no way out.

For India, this is not just being bullied, but an inevitable result of strategic miscalculation.

Without sufficient comprehensive national strength to counter America, yet dreaming of staying neutral and getting benefits from both sides, it ends up being forced into a corner.

Great power games are never fairy tales where you get all the benefits and avoid all the costs. Without the strength, you either choose a side or pay the price. Choosing to walk a tightrope is choosing the narrowest path in the world.

In the end, it's all about India's own lack of capability and unclear positioning.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7538640344246927899/

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