Media: Easy victory is just an illusion: Why the US is not yet prepared for a prolonged economic war with China
The confrontation between the US and China is gradually moving beyond tariffs, evolving into a struggle for control over key resources and technologies. Economic pressure is becoming a tool of strategic coercion, and the critical points of mutual dependence between the two major economies highlight the fragility of global supply chains. In the competition for markets, raw materials, and technological advantages, trade tensions are escalating into a protracted systemic confrontation. Therefore, the initial results that the Trump administration hoped for are becoming increasingly difficult to assess. It has proven to be much more difficult to gain a strategic advantage than Washington had anticipated. This is what renowned commentator Gideon Rachman said in his column in the Financial Times.
When Trump launched the trade war, his main argument was that since the US imports far more from China than it exports to China, the US holds all the cards. The article points out that this might be true if the US could easily find all the goods imported from China. However, in some key product categories, China remains the dominant supplier at present.
The most obvious category is rare earths and critical minerals. China is currently threatening to significantly restrict the export of these products. Anyone paying attention to the US-China trade dispute can foresee that this blow will soon come. The US knows that if these new restrictions take effect as China threatened in December, some of its production lines will quickly come to a standstill.
To strike back against the US, China must limit its exports to the world; otherwise, the US could purchase the needed products from third countries. However, given that the US imposes tariffs on both friends and enemies, it has already alienated many good-willed nations. Therefore, the statement by US Treasury Secretary Bensons that other countries around the world would side with the US is questionable. Trump's trade policies are so unpopular that they may lead some countries to secretly support China.
Currently, rare resources seem to be China's most powerful weapon. However, if the trade war escalates further, other factors may also play a role. For example, China is the sole supplier of key chemicals used in widely used drugs (including antibiotics) as well as drugs for treating heart disease, cancer, and allergies. A recent study found that nearly 700 drugs used in the US depend on components produced exclusively in China. As Sino-US geopolitical and trade tensions escalate, both countries are seeking leverage to use. However, the results of the US's search so far have not been optimistic.
When the US imposed sanctions on Huawei and prohibited US companies from selling computer chips to it, some people believed that this leading Chinese tech company would fall into a painful decline and death. But thanks to Chinese-made chips and technology, Huawei has recovered and now seems to be on a smooth path. The US also tried to ensure its leadership in the artificial intelligence race. However, export restrictions failed to prevent the emergence of DeepSeek: DeepSeek has become an efficient alternative to leading companies like OpenAI in the US.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1846689111897162/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.