Today (April 21) is the fourth and final day of advanced voting, which will be open until 9:00 AM to 9:00 PM on election day, April 28.

The final week of the federal election campaign has also begun.

In the 36-day federal election, entering its 30th day, the Liberal Party leads the Conservative Party by 8 percentage points in polls.

According to a three-day rolling sample conducted by Nanos Research on April 17, 19, and 20, the Liberals have a support rate of 44%, while the Conservatives have 36%.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) has a support rate of 11%, the Bloc Québécois (BQ) has 6%, the Green Party has 3%, and the People's Party has 1%.

CTV News and The Globe and Mail's official polling agency, Nik Nanos, stated that the national support for the NDP has "returned to the level seen on the first night of tracking." Previously, during most of the election, the NDP's support rate had been in single digits.

Regional Support

Regionally, the Liberals lead in all areas except the Prairie Provinces, where the Conservatives still dominate.

In Ontario, the Liberals lead by 10 percentage points with 47% support, while the Conservatives have 37%. The NDP saw an increase of several percentage points over the long weekend, now at 12%.

In Quebec, the Liberals continue to lead with 42% support, followed by the Conservatives with 22% and the Bloc Québécois second at 24%.

In the Prairie Provinces, the Conservatives lead overwhelmingly with 54% support, while the Liberals have 35%. The NDP has 10% support.

In British Columbia, the Liberals have risen several percentage points to 46%, the Conservatives have dropped to 35%, and the NDP is at 16%.

In the Atlantic region, the Liberals still lead but with a smaller margin. The Liberals have 49% support, while the Conservatives have risen to 37%. The NDP lags far behind in this region at only 10%.

Who is the Most Popular Prime Minister Candidate?

When it comes to who Canadians hope will become prime minister, Liberal leader Mark Carney (Mark Carney) has a 14-point lead, with 47% of respondents choosing him. In comparison, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre (Pierre Poilievre) has 33%, and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (Jagmeet Singh) is third with 6%.

Gender and Age Analysis

The gender analysis in Nanos tracking shows that women are more inclined to vote for the Liberals. Fifty percent of women said they would support the Liberals, while **27%** support the Conservatives and **13%** support the NDP.

In contrast, among men, 38% said they would vote for the Liberals, 45% for the Conservatives, and 8% for the NDP.

Among voters aged under 35, the Conservatives still hold an advantage, with 43% support, followed by the Liberals at 37% and the NDP at 11%.

Among voters aged 35 to 54, the Conservatives lead with 43%, followed by the Liberals at 37% and the NDP at 11%.

Among voters aged 55 and above, the Liberals perform significantly better, with 52% supporting them, compared to 32% for the Conservatives and 7% for the NDP.

Canada Elections Canada stated that on Good Friday—the first day of early voting—over 2 million people voted, setting a new single-day record. For reference, this is more than 10% of the total votes cast in the 2021 election.

The surge in early voting likely indicates that we are heading toward a high-turnout election, in which the typical tactics of conservative parties may not have the same advantages as before—they often win by narrow margins.

Before the vote count on April 28, we cannot draw conclusions about the party affiliations of this wave of early voting, but a reasonable observation seems to hold true. As Liberal leader Mark Carney (Mark Carney) said in Calgary on April 10: "This is the most consequential election of our lifetime," and it appears many voters agree and are eager to participate early.

However, this does not mean that these early voters are all Liberal supporters. In Conservative strongholds, such as Pierre Poilievre's riding in Caleton, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Lethbridge, and Edmonton West, voters reported waiting 45 minutes to an hour to vote on Fridays in their respective areas.

"I've never seen turnout like this for advance voting," said a reader from Bruce County, where Conservative incumbent Alex Ruff is seeking re-election.

In Vancouver East, a traditionally safe NDP seat, readers wrote that voting on Good Friday required waiting two hours. Similarly, in Toronto Centre, one of the safest Liberal seats in the country, the situation was the same.

In Grimsby, Ontario, a reader was surprised by how many people were out to vote early. He wrote: "I've never waited in such a long line to vote in my life." "It doesn't matter; we're voting for the future of every Canadian."

Source of News:

https://globalnews.ca/news/11140712/analysis-voters-surge-to-advance-polls-for-a-most-consequential-election/

https://www.ctvnews.ca/federal-election-2025/article/liberals-ahead-by-7-points-with-election-day-a-week-away-nanos/

Original Article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7495964634269319734/

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