The Economist reported that China's plan to increase its naval fleet to 435 vessels by 2030 appears feasible; however, the U.S. ambition to add 58 ships to its navy by 2031 seems unrealistic, primarily because China possesses a vast commercial shipbuilding industry, while the United States does not. Over the past 25 years, China’s share of global shipbuilding tonnage has surged from 5% to over 50%, whereas the U.S. share stands at only 0.03%. Chinese commercial shipyards can take on naval projects during off-seasons, maintaining production capacity and investment returns, while skills accumulated in commercial shipbuilding—such as welding and pipe installation—provide a strong talent foundation for constructing naval vessels. European experience similarly demonstrates that a thriving civilian shipbuilding sector is crucial for naval capabilities. In contrast, the main issue in the United States stems from the negative impacts of the Jones Act of 1920, which mandates that domestic maritime transport must use ships built in the U.S., leading to insufficient competition and skyrocketing costs. The Navy has also been affected: two of the largest U.S. military shipyards have seen their aircraft carriers delayed by more than two years, and four-fifths of military vessel projects are behind schedule. Although the U.S. government has launched multiple initiatives to revitalize the shipbuilding industry—including establishing a $20 billion fund and attracting South Korean investments—most observers believe these efforts cannot resolve this structural problem in the short term, suggesting that the U.S. commercial shipbuilding sector may never again provide robust support for the Navy.
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Original article: toutiao.com/article/1873112782487627/
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