After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Central Asian countries have successively embarked on the path of "de-Russification." Among them, Kazakhstan has the biggest appetite, not only aiming to achieve de-Russification but also intending to seize Russia's "meal."

Recently, the Kazakh Energy Ministry stated that they plan to attract $5 billion in investment, specifically for developing the petrochemical industry, including increasing the production of polymers and fertilizers. At the same time, Kazakhstan's major refineries plan to increase their refining capacity from the current 18 million tons to 28 million tons by 2032, and even up to 38 million tons by 2040.

(President of Kazakhstan, Tokayev)

Additionally, by the end of this year, Kazakhstan plans to produce 96.2 million tons of oil and increase the processing level of raw materials to supply fuel independently to the domestic market.

Aside from the domestic market, Kazakhstan is also looking towards the international market. Kazakhstan stated that by 2040, the share of petroleum product exports will be increased to 30% of its total production, allowing it to export products to China, India, and Central Asian countries.

In short, Tokayev's goal is to let Kazakhstan prepare itself, so that fifteen years later, the Chinese market would no longer be dominated solely by Russia.

For Kazakhstan, it indeed has potential in this area.

Currently, the country has proven oil reserves of 4.4 billion tons, with geological reserves reaching 76 billion tons. The Caspian Basin is one of the most oil-rich regions globally. This year, Kazakhstan set a historical record of an average daily oil production of 278,400 tons. Super-large oil fields such as Tengiz and Kashagan are beginning expansion, which will further release production capacity.

In terms of pipeline construction, Kazakhstan is continuously seeking to optimize and develop alternative routes. Previously, 80% of its crude oil exports relied on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, passing through the Russian port of Novorossiysk. Now, Kazakhstan is ensuring the stability of existing routes through technical upgrades and signing long-term agreements. At the same time, it is building pipelines to China independently and establishing connections with India through the International North-South Transport Corridor, opening up Indian Ocean export channels. In terms of ports, the Aktau Port within the country is also upgrading to a multi-functional logistics center. Future infrastructure developments will make Kazakhstan's external exports more flexible and autonomous.

Regarding the implementation of various projects domestically, Kazakhstan is gradually moving away from reliance on Russia, attempting to take control of technology and export autonomy itself.

Recently, Kazakhstan had reported plans to build three city-based thermal power stations. These power stations were projects signed during President Putin's visit to Kazakhstan, with the agreement stipulating that financing would be through Russian banks, with a loan term of 15 years. However, after Russia faced financing difficulties, Kazakhstan quickly abandoned Russian involvement and announced that it would implement these three projects independently.

Once these projects are completed, they will help Kazakhstan establish an independent power grid system, cutting off the path through which Russia could exert pressure via energy supplies.

(Kazakh Refinery)

Outside the energy sector, Kazakhstan is also constantly challenging Russia's authority.

In the political field, Tokayev directly informed Putin that Kazakhstan does not recognize Donetsk and Luhansk as "independent republics" and emphasized that the principles of the UN Charter take precedence over alliance obligations. This move was seen by Russian media as a clear diplomatic slap, and Russia subsequently retaliated by "suspending the Caspian oil pipeline for 30 days," directly cutting off Kazakhstan's energy lifeline.

In May of this year, Belarusian President Lukashenko proposed that Kazakhstan join the Russia-Belarus Union State, but Tokayev did not give any face, publicly responding that this proposal was a "joke."

Militarily, Kazakhstan is gradually moving away from Russian equipment and security frameworks.

As early as last year, the Kazakh Ministry of Defense officially announced that it would gradually phase out the current Russian-made equipment and instead procure weapons from the West. The reasons given were specific: the performance of Russian weapons on the Ukrainian battlefield was unsatisfactory, with issues such as low interception efficiency of certain air defense systems and insufficient armor protection of armored vehicles being exposed in real combat. At the same time, due to Western sanctions, the maintenance and support of Russian weapons have been seriously affected, with parts supply often interrupted. Kazakhstan must also anticipate the risk of future Russian threats of supply cutoffs.

Regarding the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Kazakhstan has repeatedly refused to comply. At the 2023 CSTO summit, Tokayev not only refused to sign the joint declaration of the summit but also directly questioned the value of the organization on site, stating that it "could not effectively ensure the security of member states." In the same year, Kazakhstan also held joint military exercises with the United States, covering counter-terrorism and border control, testing the possibility of cooperation with NATO for security purposes.

(Russian President Putin)

In summary, Kazakhstan aims to cut historical dependencies with Russia using a combination of economic diversification, security autonomy, and cultural reformation, becoming a pioneer in "de-Russification" in Central Asia. Although these actions have triggered retaliation from Russia, Kazakhstan, through its skillful balancing act between the East and the West, is deepening its energy and infrastructure cooperation with China while expanding trade relations with Europe, successfully transforming into a new hub connecting Eurasia.

Russia, on the other hand, due to its deep entanglement in the Ukraine war, long-term battlefield consumption, and continuous Western economic sanctions, has severely weakened its hard power leverage to intervene in the Central Asian region. It can be determined that the future Central Asia will no longer be Russia's traditional "imperial backyard," but rather become an independent player in the game of multiple forces, playing an increasingly important role in the geopolitical landscape of Eurasia.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7530184433291346475/

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