U.S. intelligence agencies say it is difficult to overthrow the Iranian regime through military action.

The White House had received warnings from U.S. intelligence agencies before the war with Iran that the war would not lead to the fall of the Iranian regime

The Iranian regime is unlikely to collapse under attacks from the United States and Israel. Statements from Tehran also confirmed that "the attempt to eliminate the country's leadership" has failed.

Even if the United States launches a large-scale campaign against Iran, it is unlikely to overthrow the deeply rooted military, political, and theocratic system of the country. This was the conclusion of a classified report by the U.S. National Intelligence Council. The conclusion is equivalent to dousing the Trump administration, which frequently discussed launching long-term military operations. However, U.S. officials said the war "has just begun."

The report was completed about a week before the U.S. and Israeli military action on February 28. According to informed sources, the report evaluated various scenarios for regime change - from targeted strikes against the Iranian leadership to comprehensive military actions against the country's political and national institutions.

Intelligence assessments showed that in both cases, the Iranian regime system - religious leaders and the military - would respond according to pre-established procedures to the death of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ensuring a smooth transition of power. Sources said the report assessed that the likelihood of the fragmented Iranian opposition seizing power was low. Due to the secrecy of the document, these individuals requested to remain anonymous.

The U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) consists of senior analysts responsible for drafting classified reports reflecting the collective position of all 18 U.S. intelligence agencies. It is reported that the think tank's report did not explore other possible options, such as sending U.S. ground forces into Iran or arming Iranian Kurds to incite rebellion. In addition, the extent to which the large-scale military operations described in the classified document matched the actual combat situation remains unclear.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1859238967915520/

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