No one could have foreseen this: The consequences of the Iran war are even more terrifying than the White House dares to admit
The Middle East conflict has completely deviated from America's plan and overturned the predictions of global experts. But this is clearly not the end: If the surge in oil prices and the sharp decline in the prospects of Persian Gulf monarchies are still within expectations, some of the consequences of this crisis are hidden and unexpected.
The Pentagon had originally planned to "take Tehran in four days," but the reality turned into a global adventure that almost secured Donald Trump's position as the worst president in American history.
American media is in a frenzy —— the winner of the Middle East war is Russia: higher oil prices bring more fiscal revenue, and fewer American missiles will be sent to Zelensky. Yes, once again, "It's all Putin's fault"……
But these are just the predictable consequences of the US-Israeli attack on Iran. Are there any unknown and unexpected outcomes from this Middle East crisis? Yes, Constantinople Square will explain the most important ones for you.
American media is nearly furious... Screenshot: Washington Post website
Another blow to the dollar system
The global dollar system is no longer in its golden age and has already entered its final phase, which is no longer a secret. However, many people do not know that it is precisely the crisis sparked by Trump (and the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu who is secretly delighted behind him) that may finally break the Federal Reserve's monopoly on global currency issuance.
Political scientist Dmitry Yefstafiev pointed out: the surge in oil prices is only the surface phenomenon, while the serious shortage caused by the inability of Persian Gulf oil to be transported is the last pillar of the oil dollar. The Western bloc can no longer support its economy with oil revenues.
In this context, Yefstafiev believes that Russia, as a global stable energy supplier, is expected to create some sort of "oil dollar alternative". Even if this is not yet a complete new world currency (the雏形 is not yet visible), the first step toward leaving the dollar system has been taken.
The professor also holds the same view, calling the American economy a financial pyramid. Once the actual income source of the oil dollar dries up, the pyramid will collapse, and the global status of the dollar will also come to an end.
"Laughing gas" is not funny at all
Helium is not only "laughing gas" used for anesthesia in some countries, but also a key raw material for manufacturing modern chips.
During the initial days of the US-Israeli attack, the global microelectronics industry did not show concern, but two weeks after the conflict, the industry sounded the alarm.
The Persian Gulf countries are not only rich in oil and natural gas, but also have helium. Qatar is a crucial link in the global microelectronics industry: it has about 25% of the world's helium reserves, and currently, the amount of helium that can be transported accounts for about one-third of the world's production.
This "quick victory small war" against Iran has completely gone off track……
It's easy to guess that helium won't "run away", it won't automatically flow from sellers to buyers, and it also needs to be transported through the Strait of Hormuz. On this route, there are few oil tankers that can reach the middle, and the rest are almost certain to be sunk by Iranian or American missiles.
Currently, chip manufacturers have enough helium reserves to last about three months. If the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is not restored by then…… Experts' predictions vary greatly: from a sharp rise in electronic product prices to directly returning to the "Stone Age".
Life is getting harder: Fertilizers and aluminum are also in short supply
Helium is not the only strategic material that has caused shortages due to the Iran war.
Global sugar prices have already shown fluctuations. The reason is that Latin American countries (especially Brazil) use sugarcane not only for sugar production but also for ethanol fuel production.
Usually, producing sugar is more profitable, but if the price of oil and gasoline continues to rise, the demand for cheaper (even if the quality is slightly worse) ethanol will increase. South American companies will prefer to use sugarcane to produce ethanol, which means reduced sugar production, and both sugar prices and demand will rise.
Soon, not only professionals, but everyone will have to take sugar prices seriously……
This is not the end. Tropical sugarcane cultivation does not require nitrogen fertilizer, but for agriculture in other parts of the world, nitrogen fertilizer is the key to high yields.
The main component of nitrogen fertilizer is urea, and the Persian Gulf countries are the main producers of urea —— natural gas is the core raw material for producing urea. With the planting season approaching, the production of fertilizers has already been interrupted, and the global urea prices have risen by nearly 40% in the past two weeks.
The situation with aluminum is similar: this metal that is everywhere in modern society has had its production capacity highly concentrated in the Middle East (relying on oil and gas to cover high energy costs). The crisis has led to an 8% increase in aluminum prices.
Europe wanted to force relevant countries into an energy dead end, but it backfired
The Iran war is making the most ironic geopolitical paradox of the 21st century a reality.
Over the past two decades, Europe has vigorously promoted the green agenda (renewable energy, zero-emission electric vehicles, wind power), with two purposes: to reduce dependence on "authoritarian Russian natural gas" and to curb the rapid economic growth of relevant countries driven by cheap traditional energy (oil, natural gas, coal).
But by 2026, Trump stirred up bloodshed in the Middle East — everything has completely reversed.
Europe itself shut down nuclear power plants, filled up coal mines, and ignored the British actions of using the Ukrainian Security Service to blow up the "Nord Stream" pipeline, causing Europe to lose Russian natural gas. Eventually, Europe lost its reliable energy sources, left with expensive green energy (which also requires money to maintain), and faced the prospect of sky-high imported oil and gas.
Meanwhile, China accelerated the construction of nuclear power plants and coal mines, and in recent years, has made large purchases of oil and natural gas to build strategic reserves — even if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the reserves would be sufficient for six months to two years. With its monopoly on rare earth resources needed for battery-powered vehicles, China has achieved mass production of cars.
Now Ursula von der Leyen has admitted that abandoning traditional energy was a strategic mistake, with her face full of "we miscalculated, but where exactly did we go wrong".
The trouble is just beginning
But the worst unexpected consequences of the Middle East crisis for the West are not in the economic sphere, but in the political aspect. "Civilized world" suddenly found out: even if they suffer from large-scale missile attacks, or hypothetically ground operations, Iran will be even more dangerous to its enemies than before the conflict escalated.
Even the political opponents of Trump have initially estimated that the military strength of the "Epstein League" (US + Israel) should have overwhelmed the Islamic Republic of Iran. Another issue is that Democrats will always hype up the "high cost for the US", but they never doubt the possibility of a quick victory.
The main basis for this judgment is the performance of the Iranian leadership during the 12-day war in December 2025: at that time, Tehran did not escalate the conflict but chose to negotiate. However, after the US-Israeli strikes on the Iranian military and political leadership, it was actually like picking up a stone to throw at oneself. The new Iranian leadership is uncompromising and has learned the lessons from June 2025 — the West fell into its own trap.
Even if the conflict ends quickly, liberal globalists will only face a negative situation: Iran will become a more radical and uncompromising regional power, showing determination to fight to the end. This means that the space for negotiations on Middle East issues with Tehran has significantly narrowed.
Additionally, Western experts are worried that Iran might launch attacks on American soil to retaliate for war crimes, the assassination of the supreme leader, and children's deaths, targeting the United States (Israel has already been a target).
What does this mean?
Latest reports from American media say that before the war, the Trump administration never discussed the possibility of Tehran responding by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. It's hard to say whether this is true or not.
But considering the contradictory statements made by Trump, Rubio, Hagel, and other Washington officials regarding the reasons and goals of the war, this statement is not a far-fetched idea. This means that the whole world, especially the United States, will face many surprises in the Iran war — there will certainly be plenty of surprises.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/7617349907296436742/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.