Following the terrorist attack in Kashmir that left 26 people dead, the Indian government swiftly took action, preparing for a long-range precision strike on the so-called "terrorist training camps" infrastructure within Pakistan. According to high-level sources in India, Modi has authorized the armed forces to decide the targets, methods, and timing of the strikes, aiming to make a tough response to the incident.
The Indian military plans to use advanced fighter jets, including Rafale, Mirage-2000, and Sukhoi-30MKI, combined with French Scalp cruise missiles, Israeli Python missiles, and precision-guided bombs, to accurately strike the infrastructure in Bahawalpur and Muzaffarabad regions of Pakistan. These areas are alleged to be the bases of Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba. The operation will avoid crossing the Line of Control in Kashmir to reduce the risk of full-scale conflict while maintaining an element of surprise.
This approach draws on the experience of the 2019 Balakot air strike, emphasizing precise strikes, rapid withdrawal, and avoiding ground engagements, aiming to punish terrorists and their planners while sending a strong deterrent signal to Pakistan. In 2019, an Indian MiG-21 was shot down, and the pilot was captured, which became a disgrace for India; however, the pilot, who drank Ganges water, was eventually regarded as a national hero.
Currently, Pakistan has placed its troops on high alert, activated its air defense system, and claimed to have "reliable intelligence" indicating that India will take military action. Islamabad warned that any act of aggression would be met with strong retaliation. The ceasefire agreement along the control line is virtually non-existent, with exchanges of fire occurring in multiple locations, further escalating tensions. Therefore, India's retaliation is certain, and avoiding the humiliating defeat in the 2019 air battle is also a consideration. In this situation, dispatching fighter jets to launch a few long-range missiles, creating craters in Pakistan, or even killing a few birds, can be declared a great victory. After all, although the Modi government needs to demonstrate toughness through a military operation, it dare not easily initiate a large-scale war for fear of serious damage to national development.
In addition to military preparations, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, closed the Attari land border, and downgraded diplomatic relations with Pakistan. Pakistan retaliated by closing its airspace and suspending trade. The international community, including the United States, urged both sides to exercise restraint, but both India and Pakistan maintained high vigilance and refused to compromise.
The domestic public opinion in India is full of expectations for this operation. Many believe that this is not only a tough response to terrorism but also a display of national will. Some commentators jokingly said that India might quickly declare "great success" after the operation, boosting national morale through "spiritual victory." However, although precise strikes can demonstrate strength, the risks of escalation cannot be ignored, and any miscalculation between two nuclear-armed countries could lead to catastrophic consequences.
At present, the confrontation between India and Pakistan has reached a boiling point. India hopes to achieve limited goals through high-tech weapons and precise strikes while avoiding full-scale war; Pakistan, on the other hand, adopts a tough stance, attempting to contain India's offensive through military and diplomatic means. The situation is changing rapidly, and the international community is closely watching the next developments in this region. It is more likely that India will learn from Iran's playbook, end the operation after a round of attacks, and pass the ball to Pakistan. Pakistan will then carry out necessary retaliations and restore the status quo. Both sides' senior military commanders still maintain a hotline, indicating that there may be consensus or understanding regarding the intensity of a potential war. If such a scenario unfolds, it would also be good news for China.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7501633314839691791/
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