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The first deal of the J-10 after the 5.7 air battle has been confirmed. Recently, Indonesia's Defense Minister Samsudin stated that "the J-10 is about to arrive in Jakarta." Indonesian domestic media and Russian News Agency also reported simultaneously, confirming Indonesia's intention to purchase the J-10.

【The J-10 wins its first order after the 5.7 air battle】

As early as June this year, Indonesia's Deputy Defense Minister Tao Fantao first confirmed that the procurement project of the J-10 was under evaluation.

The initial plan was to purchase 42 aircraft. Indonesia's Finance Minister Purba said the budget had been approved, but did not disclose the specific amount. Indonesia spent 8.1 billion USD to purchase 42 Rafale F4s, and purchasing an equivalent number of J-10s would be even cheaper.

Why does Indonesia buy Rafale and then buy the J-10?

First, to counter Australia. The two countries have a significant conflict over East Timor and West Papua issues, and Indonesia has clearly listed Australia as its "number one hypothetical enemy". However, Australia is a member of the Five Eyes Alliance and is a close ally of the United States, so it is impossible to expect to use F15EX to counter Australia.

Indonesia's attempt to buy Su-35 also failed, unable to withstand U.S. pressure, so it basically could only buy Chinese or French fighters. But it has already been proven that France will also be influenced by the United States at critical moments. Buying Rafale alone is not safe, so adding a J-10 is necessary.

Secondly, the India-Pakistan air battle made Indonesia look at the J-10 with new eyes.

【The J-10C achieved remarkable results in the 5.7 air battle】

In the India-Pakistan air battle on May 7, Pakistan's J-10CE shot down three Rafales from 100 kilometers away, shocking the world and truly winning brand reputation and popularity.

This means that purchasing the J-10CE will gain combat effectiveness, and even without participating in actual combat, it will have a deterrent effect, which makes Indonesia re-evaluate the J-10CE.

Finally, purchasing the J-10 can directly configure corresponding early warning aircraft and data links, which France cannot provide. If Indonesia buys Rafale, they have to turn to Sweden to buy early warning aircraft and data link terminals, and then integrate them, which is very complicated.

China can provide a one-stop service, building a small system for the Indonesian Air Force.

Moreover, buying the J-10 can lay the foundation for introducing the J-35AE in the future, because the Australian Air Force has already equipped 72 F-35As, and Indonesia will still need to purchase fifth-generation aircraft to counter it in the long run.

【Australia has equipped a large number of F-35s】

However, it is surprising that Indonesia seems not to be planning to purchase the latest J-10CE.

According to previous reports by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Indonesia plans to buy used J-10B/S. There are 58 J-10B and about 88 J-10S produced, which can meet Indonesia's demand for 42 aircraft, and are all in stock.

So, is Indonesia going to buy new or used aircraft? It should be said that each has its own advantages and disadvantages.

The J-10CE has better performance, but it is more expensive and has a longer delivery cycle. The J-10B has slightly worse performance, equipped with passive electronically scanned array radar, but is much cheaper, and can be delivered quickly, within one or two years.

Indonesia has previously bought used aircraft. For example, the F-16C Block25 received since 2017 were second-hand aircraft from the U.S. Air Force, with costs for extension and upgraded according to the Block 50/52 standards.

Following the principle of diversifying investments, although the Rafale lost to the J-10, Indonesia still has to buy it, which is 8.1 billion USD.

Earlier this year, Indonesia also signed a contract to purchase 48 Turkish fifth-generation aircraft "Khan" worth 10 billion USD, and there is also an 8 billion USD "protection fee" for purchasing 24 F15EXs. In the end, there is no financial capacity to buy new J-10Cs.

【Indonesia started receiving second-hand F16C Block25 in 2017】

It should be noted that Indonesia's budget for purchasing weapons in 2025 is only 4.9 billion USD, and the Air Force can get up to 2 billion USD. In this case, it is likely to only buy used J-10s.

Although the radar and electronic warfare capabilities of used J-10s are limited, there is a clear advantage, which is quick delivery.

The current fleet of the Indonesian Air Force includes old F16s and Su-27/30s, which are already over their service life. However, the delivery speed of the Rafale is slow, and it is difficult to expect them to become operational soon. Used J-10s can not only fill the gap in combat power in the short term, but also quickly narrow the gap with Australian aircraft.

It should be noted that Australia has already received all 72 F35A aircraft in the first round of procurement, giving it a technological advantage over Indonesia's early F16s and Su-27/30s, not to mention that Australia also has 12 EA-18G "Growler" electronic warfare aircraft.

Moreover, the age of most J-10s is relatively small. J-10A/S began service in 2006, and J-10B was introduced in 2016, just two years earlier than J-10C. The J-10 is designed for a service life of 6,000 flight hours, and it can still be used for at least 10 to 15 years.

【Most J-10B have an age of less than 10 years】

However, the J-10B is a fighter aircraft from the 2010s, especially still using passive electronically scanned array radar, which is at the same level as the Rafale F4 and Su-35S, and is somewhat outdated. It must be upgraded to meet requirements.

To upgrade the J-10B from passive electronically scanned array radar to active electronically scanned array radar to effectively utilize the range advantage of the PL-15E.

Additionally, there is another problem: the J-10B/S are equipped with AL31FN engines, and whether Russia agrees to export is also an issue, as the AL31FN has a short lifespan, and it still depends on importing from Russia. It is not worth replacing the AL31 engine with the WS-10B engine for used J-10s.

However, the AL31 engine is not unfamiliar to Indonesia, as they have long-term experience with the Su-30MK2, and the engine is also the AL31 series.

【The Indonesian Air Force's Su-30MK2 also uses the AL31 series engine】

Moreover, in 2021, Indonesia gave up purchasing Su-35 due to U.S. sanctions, and Russian fighters had already lost the Indonesian market, meaning that regardless of whether Indonesia buys the J-10 or not, it will not buy the Su-35 again, and the J-10 will not compete with the Su-35.

Moreover, if Indonesia buys the J-10B/S, Russia can continue to sell engines, which is beneficial for both sides.

In summary, Indonesia's purchase of the J-10 is not a means of bargaining with other sellers, but is based on practical needs and deep strategic considerations, as well as the return of the J-10's outstanding performance.

It can be foreseen that more countries like Indonesia will purchase the J-10, and the trend of China's military industry going global is unstoppable.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7562032675561751103/

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