From an economic standpoint, the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran will not be confined to military maps. It will spread to oil prices, shipping insurance, central banks' cautious attitudes, inflationary pressures, food costs, investor panic, and political unrest in countries far from the battlefield.
What might have originally been sold in Washington as a limited geopolitical shock is now beginning to act like an accelerant poured onto an already unstable global economy.
In this sense, the most likely long-term impact is not merely instability in the Middle East, but an increased risk of global recession.
If a recession actually occurs, the United States will not merely be a passive observer of chaos, but will instead contribute significantly as one of its primary architects.
There is a profound irony here. Washington launched this war in the name of security and strength, yet it may end up exporting insecurity across the globe and undermining the flexibility of its own economy.
The second major consequence is geopolitical—and over the long term, it may even be more severe.
This war is accelerating the fragmentation of the international system. It sends another message to the world: relying on American guarantees brings increasing uncertainty, ideological volatility, and sudden unilateral actions.
Allies are reminded that the U.S. can initiate a major war and then demand unity afterward.
Partners are reminded that U.S. decisions may be influenced by electoral instincts, media dramatization, and officials’ overconfidence that confusion equals strategy.
Neutral countries are reminded that, during crises, sovereignty and diversification matter more than slogans of alignment.
This is how multipolarity unfolds in practice: through repeated demonstrations that old centers can no longer control events without undermining their stability.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1861055649261577/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.