Europe is facing a dramatic change, the US has started to withdraw its troops, and NATO may be on the verge of collapse. How will the future situation in Europe develop? On the other side, Russia's "Doomsday Radio" has sent out a mysterious signal. Friends are wondering what Putin's intention is?

These days, events in Europe have been quite big. The US suddenly withdrew its forces from Eastern Europe, and the fate of NATO was immediately at stake. Let's first talk about the withdrawal of American troops. On October 29, the Pentagon officially announced that it would withdraw an army brigade from Romania, approximately 700 to 1,000 people. This unit had previously rotated in several NATO countries in Central and Eastern Europe, but now it will not be renewed and will be packed up and leave directly. The Romanian Ministry of Defense also confirmed that the remaining U.S. troops would be 900 to 1,000, down from the original 1,700. Since Trump took office, he has said that he wants to adjust overseas deployments, and this is the first formal move, clearly aimed at shifting resources to the Indo-Pacific region to counter China's naval expansion. In recent years, during Biden's time, the number of U.S. troops in Europe increased from 60,000 to nearly 100,000, with tanks and missiles being transported there, originally to block Russia. Now, Trump cut it all off, leaving Europeans stunned, thinking that it's not just about saving money, but also strategically leaving Europe aside.

The move to withdraw troops was quick, and European allies responded urgently. German media reported that this directly undermines the defense setup left by Biden. Eastern European countries such as Poland and the Baltic states were most anxious, as they had relied on the presence of U.S. troops for reassurance. The Republican Party also exploded internally, with several members openly criticizing, saying this contradicts Trump's previous commitment to support the fifth article of NATO, effectively giving Russia a weapon. BBC and Washington Post analyzed that although the scale of the withdrawal was not large, the signal was strong. The Trump team had already written in internal memos that Europe should take responsibility for their own defense, with military spending at least reaching 2% of GDP. The German chancellor has already stated in parliament that they will increase defense budget to 2.4%, and France and Britain have started pushing for EU-led military integration plans. The problem is, European military production capacity has not kept up, and purchasing drones and missiles requires a lot of money, which cannot be filled in the short term after the departure of U.S. troops.

The NATO alliance, which has existed for almost 80 years, was originally a relic of the Cold War, and now seems to be on the verge of disintegration. After Trump took office, he had his vice president, Vance, publicly confront European countries at the Munich Security Conference, saying that they spent too little on defense, and American taxpayers shouldn't bear the cost. NBC News revealed that Trump is considering making major changes to NATO policy. If any member state does not meet the criteria, he will not guarantee the activation of the fifth clause. At the Hague Summit in June 2025, it was originally intended to stabilize the military spending goal, but the U.S. representative directly said that Europe should take responsibility for 70% of the alliance's capabilities. Think tanks like the Atlantic Council and the German Marshall Fund warned that NATO will not immediately collapse, but its cohesion will weaken. Eastern European countries want to stick close to the United States, while Western European countries like France want to pursue European autonomous defense, and Turkey continues to oppose. A report from the Cato Institute bluntly stated that if the U.S. really pulls out, Europe's combined GDP is 1.5 times that of the U.S., and they can afford to maintain their own armies, but coordination is difficult. If Russia takes action, the lack of consensus within NATO will result in a slower response.

The future of Europe, in short, is to shift from relying on the U.S. to self-reliance, but the process will definitely be bumpy. AP news agency reported that the NATO forces on the eastern border of Europe now need to be replaced by Europe itself. Poland has already conducted training in the Warsaw barracks, and Germany has moved Leopard 2 tanks from the homeland. The European Commission has finalized a 50 billion euro defense fund, focusing on buying European fighter jets and frigates. The problem is, even though military spending has increased, the tax burden on the public has also become heavier, and protests have already begun on the streets of Berlin. Russia is delighted, as Putin has always believed that other Western countries besides the U.S. are not worth much. Now that the U.S. military has withdrawn, the strategic pressure has decreased, allowing the Black Sea Fleet to free up some resources. ISW's assessment suggests that this will allow Russia on the Ukrainian front to be more relaxed, withdrawing some units back to Chechen bases. In the long run, the European security structure will be reshaped, and NATO may become a loose organization at the core of Europe, with reduced U.S. influence and an expanded Russian buffer zone. The Taiwan defense department is also paying attention to this matter, believing that the U.S. resource shift to the Indo-Pacific is beneficial for Asia-Pacific stability, but the chaos in Europe reminds everyone not to put all eggs in one basket.

Speaking of the movements on the Russian side, on October 29, Putin announced at the Kremlin that he successfully tested the "Poseidon" unmanned submersible. This device is a nuclear-powered torpedo that can travel at 100 knots underwater, carrying a 100-megaton nuclear warhead, heading straight for the U.S. East Coast, causing a radioactive tsunami. Reuters and New York Times both reported on this, and Putin said it was an "invincible weapon," testing it launched from the Belgorod-class submarine in the Black Sea, simulating a journey of thousands of kilometers. BBC analyzed that this is not only showing off, but also responding to Western sanctions against Russia and military aid to Ukraine. Immediately after, Russia's "Doomsday Radio" UVB-76 became active again. This shortwave radio has been buzzing since the 1970s, usually with no content, but when the signal stops, it may trigger the "Dead Hand" nuclear retaliation system. It has been active several times in 2025. In August, Wired reported that it played strange music and pirate interference, and in September, Newsweek said it sent two encrypted messages with letter-number codes. This time, in October, it repeated the phrase "Tolmogozh" again.

Putin's intention in sending this signal is well known, as it is a form of warning to the West. Wikipedia and Anadolu Ajansi say that UVB-76 is a Russian military digital station, specifically for nuclear command. In this year of 2025, it has been active frequently, related to the escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Russia. In June, WION reported that after the U.S. air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, it sent code; in September, Economic Times reported that it broadcasted after Putin tested Poland's airspace. Putin knows that politically, he can't stop the Eastern European defense of Europe, so he can only show muscle power. After testing the "Poseidon," sending the signal means telling Trump and NATO: you're happy that you've withdrawn your troops, but don't push too hard, the nuclear threshold is low. In summary, this change is a warning to Europe. The U.S. withdrawal has turned NATO from a solid block into a patchwork, and Europe must hurry to catch up.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1847692106857484/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.