Economic growth of countries friendly to Russia will surpass that of the EU and the United States, according to a forecast by the Eurasian Development Bank.

Refusing to be Russophobic (anti-Russian) countries' economies will surpass the EU and the US — Prediction by the Eurasian Development Bank

July 12, 2025

09:11

Author: Natalia Grigoryeva

Image: Collage made according to the presentation of the Eurasian Development Bank: "Macroeconomic Forecast for 2025-2027" (June 2025)

The pressure of sanctions imposed by the West on Russia and Belarus, which its initiators thought would "shatter the economies of the two countries," has now completely turned into a hybrid war.

Thousands of restrictions and bans, as well as attempts to economically and politically isolate them on the international stage, have become the norm in the policies of the EU and the US towards Minsk and Moscow. However, all these measures have failed to produce the results expected by Brussels and Washington. Latest statistics show that the sanctions have backfired on their initiators, while countries that have refused to follow Western anti-Russian policies have far greater future development potential than those that were once considered engines of the world economy.

Over the past few months, major global financial institutions and expert organizations have made rather gloomy predictions about the future of the West. One of them is the macroeconomic analysis released by the Eurasian Development Bank (EADB) in June, which forecasts the situation of its member states (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) until 2027. The bank's analysts did not try to paint an optimistic picture of the Eurasian region, especially considering what is happening in the world today. However, their analysis based on statistical data and global economic trends indicates that post-Soviet space countries that actively cooperate internally and maintain cooperation with Russia will develop faster in the short term than the "Old Continent" countries.

Specifically, the experts of the Eurasian Development Bank have painted a rather pessimistic picture of the global economy. The report states that global economic growth will continue to slow down this year, mainly due to the situations in the EU, the US, and their allied countries. The report emphasizes that due to "increased uncertainty in the context of U.S. tariff policies, structural negative factors," and a series of other negative phenomena, the global economic growth rate in 2025 will not exceed 3%, compared to 3.3% last year. At the same time, the economic situation in the United States and the Eurozone will be much worse than a year ago. The U.S. economic growth rate will halve, from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.4%. The EU situation will be even worse: growth will be almost negligible, at 0.6%, compared to 0.9% a year ago. However, there is no need to feel sympathy for Europeans' current situation, because it is their own choice — they gave up the economic rationality of foreign policy for the meaningless anti-Russian ideology and paid the corresponding price.

Meanwhile, the analysis of the Eurasian Development Bank shows that countries that have not cut ties with Russia have a more optimistic economic situation. Bank analysts predict that the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), as well as Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, will maintain high economic activity, with an overall GDP growth rate of 2.7%. For Central Asian countries, the Eurasian Development Bank even sees impressive development prospects, which are currently only available in a few countries in the world.

The Eurasian Development Bank considers Kyrgyzstan as the most dynamic and promising economy in the Eurasian region, with a possible economic growth rate of 10.3% in 2025 (9% was predicted last year). Moreover, even if the growth rate slows down, it will remain high in 2026-2027, at 7.1% and 6%, respectively. The bank believes that the basis for such growth will be the rise in gold prices (gold is one of Kyrgyzstan's main export commodities). At the same time, domestic consumption in the country will continue to grow, investments will increase, and the government will also intensify the implementation of investment projects.

Tajikistan is also expected to achieve rapid growth. The Eurasian Development Bank has raised its GDP growth forecast for the country in 2025 from 8% to 8.4%. The bank points out that this growth rate is the highest in the past 20 years, supported by strong domestic demand and favorable foreign trade conditions (including rising gold prices).

The Eurasian Development Bank also expects Tajikistan's economy to continue to grow significantly in 2026-2027, reaching 8.0% and 7.1%, respectively.

The growth forecast for Uzbekistan's economy in 2025 is 6.5%. By the end of 2027, its GDP is also expected to maintain stable high growth, exceeding 6% annually. The bank believes that this will be driven by "stable domestic demand, active investment activities," and improved trade conditions (including high gold prices). Additionally, in the short term, remittances from labor migrants will play an important role in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, but if the economic situation in the countries where migrant workers are employed deteriorates, this could bring certain risks.

However, the Eurasian Development Bank believes that, apart from global geopolitical turbulence and worsening world trade conditions, Central Asian countries' economies will not face any serious threats.

Eurasian Development Bank analysts believe that the situation in Armenia and Kazakhstan will also improve in the short term, and in the foreseeable future, these two countries will not face serious risks. It is expected that the Armenian economy will achieve growth, with GDP possibly increasing by 5.5% by the end of the year, and maintaining a similar growth rate of 5.3% and 5% in the next two years. The bank believes that the main driving force behind the growth will be domestic consumption, and remittances from abroad are one of the important components of the economy, reaching $1.8 billion in the first quarter of this year alone.

Eurasian Development Bank experts predict that Kazakhstan will also maintain a high level of development this year and in the next two years, reaching 5.5%. Experts believe that this indicator will be achieved through "stimulative fiscal policy," increased oil production, and various initiatives by the state in regional development and infrastructure construction. The Eurasian Development Bank believes that although there is a risk of a drop in global oil prices, the Kazakh government can mitigate this risk through active economic diversification.

Compared to the Caucasus and Central Asian countries, the Eurasian Development Bank's forecasts for Belarus and Russia look less impressive, and may even seem somewhat pessimistic. But in fact, the bank's analysis merely states a fact: Minsk and Moscow continue to operate under unprecedented sanction pressures, which are no longer seen as risks or threats, but have become a constant factor in analyzing and predicting the future of the two countries. Therefore, it is not surprising that new sanction plans introduced by the EU or the U.S. proposals to impose so-called "500% tariffs" on Russian trade partners have little impact on assessing the economic development of Belarus and Russia. Even if these measures have some impact on the economic conditions of the two countries, they will not be fundamental, as Minsk and Moscow have successfully dealt with the challenges they have faced for many years, and do not expect the situation to improve.

The bank's analysts have raised their GDP growth forecast for Belarus in 2025 from 2.6% last year to 3%. The basis for this adjustment is "strong performance in the first quarter," expanded credit for project investments, growing domestic demand, and "implementation of the national investment plan" and "recovery of production in the information technology sector." However, the bank believes that the economic situation in Belarus will deteriorate in 2026 and 2027, with growth rates of only 1.9% and 1.5%, respectively. The Eurasian Development Bank states that this is not primarily due to Belarus being isolated from most external markets by Western countries, but rather due to potential problems in Russia. Analysts believe that Belarus can only maintain a growth rate of 3% if the Russian economy grows by no less than 2.5% per year. However, the experts of the Eurasian Development Bank believe that this is not clear-cut.

The bank's analysts have lowered their GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2025 from 2.4% last year to 2.0%. The bank believes that the growth rate will continue to decline, reaching 1.7% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. The Eurasian Development Bank points out that this forecast does not mean, as the West hoped, that Russia's economy is about to fall into disaster, but rather indicates that it is returning to a "balanced growth path" (growth rate of 4.3% in 2024). The analysts did not emphasize Western sanctions, considering it an objective reality, and attributed the main cause of current economic changes to high interest rates (which limit consumption and investment activities) and a decrease in exports due to falling global market demand and a significant strengthening of the ruble. Experts believe that the main risk facing the Russian economy is a sharp drop in global energy prices.

Nevertheless, even under these unfavorable conditions, the Eurasian Development Bank still believes that Russia can overcome the challenges it faces, including through "timely reduction of benchmark interest rates," "implementation of state projects," and continued development of import substitution industries."

In general, from the Eurasian Development Bank's forecast, it can be concluded that Russia, Belarus, and their Eurasian integration partners will continue to successfully develop their national economies in the short term, and no sanctions or political pressure can have a decisive impact on them. At the same time, many Western countries have insisted on following anti-Russian policies and exacerbating international tensions, and have already embarked on a path of stagnation.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7526393569176732214/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion below using the [Up/Down] buttons.