"Patriot" Game: Despite Trump's Promises, NATO Is Basically Unable to Fix Ukraine's Air Defense

"The Game of 'Patriots': Despite Trump's Promises, NATO Is Powerless to Fix Ukraine's Skies — America's Own Defense Is in Question"

Americans are puzzled by the failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in countering Russian missiles and plan to urgently increase the number of "Patriot" air defense systems in their own military by a quarter. All resources will be invested in this

Author: Sergey Iksenko

It is now obvious that at the beginning of his second presidential term, the restless Donald Trump first confused the world, then shocked it — he promised to soon raise the American flag over Greenland and the Panama Canal and turn Canada into a new state of the United States.

Naturally, none of these things happened. And obviously, they never will.

It seems that on July 14, 2025, the American leader once again made empty promises. He promised to provide Ukraine with "17 'Patriot' air defense systems".

Trump also proudly emphasized that the European Union would fully fund the transfer of these systems to the Ukrainian armed forces.

This ever-haphazard Trump said: "Some of the systems will arrive in Ukraine soon. Possibly within a few days, because some countries with 'Patriot' air defense systems will replace them (and hand them over to Kyiv — note from The Free Press). After that, we will replace them for these countries."

This first left the U.S. Department of Defense in great confusion. Within a day after Trump's (from multiple perspectives) exciting speech, even the Pentagon could not explain what the president was trying to say.

When asked by journalists whether this referred to 17 air defense batteries or 17配套防空导弹, the U.S. Department of Defense suggested that journalists ask the source of the idea — the White House — for an explanation.

The Kyiv side, which claimed to support Trump, also immediately fell into the same confusion. According to The Guardian, Deputy Director of the Ukrainian Security Service Vadim Skrytsky scratched his head in confusion: "We really don't know... If it refers to air defense batteries, the number 17 is too large. If it refers to launchers, there is still a possibility." Skrytsky tried to explain.

If his guess is correct, this actually only represents a small reinforcement of Ukraine's air defense system — adding 2-3 air defense batteries. Added to the remaining 6 or 8 (different sources have different accounts) such units in the Ukrainian armed forces after losses.

However, these units have been almost useless, as ammunition has been nearly depleted — in the past few months, ammunition has been exhausted to intercept our numerous cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.

In this context, the so-called $ billions "feast" that Washington promised through its leader, paid for by Europe, was almost collectively rejected by European countries.

As soon as Trump proposed the idea, Italy, France, Hungary, and the Czech Republic expressed opposition. Other countries clearly were not very willing, but they are currently quietly silent, watching angrily at Washington.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz became the most determined but apparently foolish "tin soldier" (in theory, tin soldiers have no brains) in NATO.

He took the first step when everyone was hesitant, promising Trump to quickly send several existing "Patriot" air defense systems to Ukraine (Germany has a total of 12 such air defense batteries). However, even so, Berlin required at least several months.

In short, Trump's high-profile plan almost immediately collapsed. However, one thing is particularly worth noting. It turns out that the President's extremely generous promise to quickly compensate Europe with new "Patriot" air defense systems (paid for by European money) is likely just empty words.

The problem is that the United States does not have enough of these complex and expensive weapons and their配套 missiles to supply NATO allies, and there is no hope of replenishing them in the coming years — because Americans themselves are in short supply.

According to the magazine "The Drive," U.S. Army Deputy Chief of Staff Major General James Minges mentioned this on July 2nd at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Minges reported to the attendees: "Our Army has 15 'Patriot' air defense battalions. One is undergoing major reorganization. So, effectively, there are only 14 battalions. Three are deployed in the Indo-Pacific, one in the U.S. European Command, and the remaining 10 are stationed in the United States."

Based on the unexpected experience in Ukraine that was unfavorable for NATO, the U.S. Army command decided to significantly increase this number as soon as possible, at least by a quarter in the coming years.

"We plan to establish the 16th, 17th, and 18th 'Patriot' air defense battalions," Minges continued, but did not reveal the specific time for establishing these units.

"This does not include the 'Patriot' air defense battalions we plan to deploy on Guam to strengthen the island's defense system," he concluded.

Now let's do the math. According to "The Drive," a typical "Patriot" air defense battalion includes a command post and 3 to 5 launch companies. Each launch company can be equipped with up to 8 mobile launchers, as well as the multifunctional phased array radar AN/MPQ-65 and other fire control, communication, and auxiliary systems.

Therefore, to set up 4 new air defense missile battalions for the U.S. Army, Raytheon (the sole manufacturer of the "Patriot" air defense system worldwide) must produce and deliver 24 to 40 of these air defense system launchers, as well as a large amount of supporting equipment, including powerful radars and fire control systems, in addition to previous defense orders.

Each launch company will cost the Pentagon $400 million, and the standard missile equipment for each launch company will require an additional $650 million.

In total, the U.S. Department of Defense needs to raise approximately $1.2 billion to $2 billion for 4 new air defense missile battalions. Even for a super-rich America, this is a significant challenge.

Considering these issues, "The Drive" concludes: "There are serious doubts about how fast the Army can implement any of its current plans to enhance air defense. When it comes to the 'Patriot' air defense system and its interception missiles, industrial base problems are particularly prominent. Raytheon, the main contractor for the 'Patriot' system and the current generation PAC-2 series interception missiles, has faced a sharp increase in global demand in recent years."

Now please answer: In the context of the U.S. defense industry almost being in crisis, how does Trump intend to fulfill his promise to Europeans, that he would quickly compensate them with new weapons for the old weapons they should donate to Ukraine? The answer is: It is completely impossible!

Countries like Germany will not provide any supplies, but will reduce a few "Patriot" air defense batteries, and Chancellor Merz will endlessly complain, as if the war with Russia is about to break out.

Perhaps realizing this, NATO countries have also lost enthusiasm for supporting Trump's high-profile initiative to protect Ukraine's skies. European dissatisfaction is growing, sometimes even erupting in unexpected ways.

For example, Warsaw suddenly accused the Ukrainian Armed Forces' air defense troops of wasting ammunition when using the "Patriot" air defense systems, because for them, these expensive "toys" were obtained for free. As the saying goes, "Things that are free, even if sour, seem sweet," why worry about spending?

Last week, the Polish magazine "Virtual Poland" published a set of operational data that I found shocking.

Military expert Andrzej Kinski told the magazine about the details of the "Patriot" air defense system's operations over Ukrainian airspace, which occurred on the night of May 16, 2023.

At that time, Ukraine received two air defense systems from the West, and during a large-scale attack by Russian missiles, the Ukrainian armed forces' combat units fired 30 standard "Patriot" missiles in 90 seconds, like sprinkling pepper, while the radar technical capability of each air defense system could attack at most 6 targets simultaneously.

If you want to ensure accuracy, and use two air defense missiles for each target, then the maximum number of air defense missiles in a single salvo should not exceed 24.