French media: Why European military leaders predict Russia will become more reckless

As Russia continues to advance, Ukraine is at a critical moment. In this context, French Chief of the Armed Forces Fabien Hinsch warned about Russia's ambitions on November 20 at the French Mayors' Annual Meeting: "If our country retreats because it is not prepared to accept the loss of its children, refuses to speak the truth, and refuses to bear the economic losses caused by prioritizing defense production, we are in danger."

Such remarks naturally sound alarmist in France, a country that has not experienced war for many years, and have sparked intense controversy. Some extreme politicians have reduced this to "sending our children to die for Ukraine," fueling populist sentiment. In fact, this chief of staff was speaking from a broader, long-term perspective on the consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine for Europe and France, directly reminding elected representatives. Moreover, General Hinsch's statements are consistent with the more "alarmist" remarks made by most of his European counterparts in recent days.

Indeed, this "non-traditional" chief of staff had already criticized "relativism" just two weeks after his promotion to Chief of the Armed Forces on September 18. He said, "What I ask of you is not to deceive yourselves, but to face the problems so that we can face the future." What is "relativism"? It is the attitude that leads you to say, "It's not that bad," "Not worth it," or "It's all the same anyway."

On October 22 and November 5, General Hinsch also delivered particularly serious speeches during hearings of the Senate Defense Committee, which resonated with the members present. He told the legislators, "If we are to defend ourselves, Russia must not make us afraid." He warned that Russia might be preparing to attack NATO in "three to four years." He even explicitly stated to senators that once President Trump's term ends, President Putin may take action at that time. He mentioned that Putin had reached some form of non-aggression "agreement" with Trump, and once Trump leaves office, Putin would no longer be bound by it.

As Russia increases pressure on Ukraine and Europe, the public statements of General Hinsch's European counterparts have become increasingly severe. On November 19, General Michael Claesson, Chief of the Swedish Armed Forces, told 'Politico' media, "I am certain that Russia is prepared to take great strategic risks to obtain everything it believes it can get," referring to a potential "systemic conflict" that could last "a generation."

On November 18, after a railway line in Poland was sabotaged, General Wieslaw Kukula, Chief of the Polish Armed Forces, said that Poland had clearly entered the "pre-war" stage. This statement repeated the expression first used by Prime Minister Tusk in March 2024. The general said, "The enemy has started preparing for war. It is creating conditions to undermine public confidence in the government, the army, and the police, while preparing for a possible invasion of Polish territory."

However, none of General Hinsch's colleagues have gone as far as expressing concern about the future of young people. Only German Chief of Defence General von Blücher used a relatively unusual tone when he spoke to Canadian CTV television in February. He said, "We see Russia becoming stronger, it is acquiring new structures, producing more combat tanks (......), which scares me. He considers Russia a 'pressing threat'."

On November 15, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, in an interview with 'Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung', made this timeline more specific. Although military experts and most intelligence agencies have estimated that Russia may be able to launch attacks against NATO member states from "2029 onwards", he agreed with the shocking assessment of some military historians, saying, "Some military historians believe we have already passed the last peaceful summer."

The influential newspaper 'Le Monde' commented in its editorial on Saturday that the words of the French chief of staff were not out of place. This is one of a series of similar statements from the highest levels of the defense establishment. General Buchard, before transferring his duties to Hinsch in the summer, had declared, "We must be prepared for high-intensity warfare because it is the best way to avoid war." At the end of October, Hinsch also asked the armed forces to "be prepared for a shock in three or four years, which will be a test."

The editorial pointed out: We need to make people aware of the reality of the Russian threat. Drones flying over the heartlands of NATO countries, Moscow's information warfare, the sabotage of railway lines in Poland in mid-November, not to mention the new proposals from the United States and Russia that have done nothing to curb Russian aggression, all indicate that although Europe may not be in a state of war, it is no longer completely at peace. In such a situation, it is not surprising that mayors, who are the closest representatives of the people, should be made aware of how to contribute to national defense.

Source: rfi

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1849532514807820/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author."