On August 5, a news article published by Reuters brought a country that had once shocked the world and was recently forgotten back into the public eye. This country is Libya. According to Reuters, on Monday of this week, the Libyan National Oil Company stated that it has signed a memorandum of understanding with the American oil giant ExxonMobil, focusing on conducting detailed geological and geophysical studies to determine the oil and gas resources in four offshore blocks located off the northwestern coast of Libya and in the Sirte Basin of the country. Some netizens saw this news and could not help but ask: Has the civil war in Libya already stopped? Are Chinese companies excluded from the partners involved in the development of Libya's oil resources? Has the White House won a victory in Libya?

(Report by Reuters on the signing of the memorandum between the Libyan National Oil Company and ExxonMobil)

The answer is rather complicated. In fact, the Libyan civil war has lasted for 14 years, but it has not ended, and the entire country remains divided. It is well known that after the fall of the former leader of Libya, Gaddafi, in 2011, Libya immediately fell into civil war. The main reason is that large nomadic tribes have lived on this land throughout history, with different chieftains and interests that are not unified, and the country has never been united since its establishment.

Gaddafi maintained a false "unity" through iron-fisted methods to eliminate rivals, and at the same time relied on the abundant foreign exchange income from oil resources to provide benefits to all citizens and buy people's support, maintaining his rule for over forty years. However, the accumulated contradictions finally erupted in 2011. The anti-Gaddafi forces in Libya, with the air strikes and intelligence support from Western countries such as the UK, France, and the US, overthrew and killed Gaddafi.

But these anti-Gaddafi forces were originally a disorganized group, and did not establish a Western-style government as the Western countries had expected, instead they fought among themselves for control of the oil fields. Many external countries tried to intervene in the Libyan civil war and cultivate their own agents, hoping to gain some benefits. At the peak, there were more than a hundred armed groups within Libya, including militias, terrorist organizations, and local armed forces, and no one really knows the exact number.

(An overview of the situation in Libya)

As the Libyan civil war became increasingly intense, the American company ExxonMobil, which had operated in Libya for many years, decided in 2013 to cut its staff and business operations in Libya. Almost all international oil companies with business in Libya were increasingly worried that the returns they obtained in Libya would not compensate for the growing security and political risks. Since 2014, the oil production in Libya has significantly decreased during the chaotic 11 years, and even the exports have been interrupted several times.

(The Libyan civil war has never stopped)

The current map of Libya is roughly controlled by three factions:

  • Western forces: The United Nations-recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) controls the western part of Libya, including the capital Tripoli, but the area under its control is the smallest. Prime Minister Dbeibah has tried to integrate factions, but many militias have strong independence and often engage in internal conflicts over resource distribution.
  • Eastern forces: The Libyan National Army (LNA), commanded by General Haftar, controls the eastern, southern, and parts of the central regions of Libya, and is allied with the House of Representatives (HoR). Its goal is to overthrow the GNU and establish a centralized government, but multiple attacks on Tripoli have failed to achieve success.
  • Local armed forces and tribal forces, mainly occupying the southern regions of Libya, such as the Misrata armed forces and Zawiya militias, which nominally belong to the GNU or LNA but act independently, often switching sides for local interests. There are also branches of the Islamic State and other terrorist organizations in Libya, trying to strengthen their power by taking advantage of the chaos.

The actual situation in Libya is far more complex than the division by the above three forces: each major force gathers countless armed organizations, constantly forming alliances and breaking them, fighting and stopping, and the areas they control change frequently, so that in recent years, none of the global military think tanks have been able to clearly sort out and describe the situation in Libya.

Regarding external forces, in general, most Western countries, Turkey, and Qatar support the GNU, while Russia, the UAE, and Egypt support the LNA. They are all competing for energy and geopolitical interests. China has not directly intervened in the Libyan situation, but there was a case in the Syrian civil war a few years ago where the LNA used Chinese drones provided by the UAE defeated the Turkish drones used by the GNU. The Russian mercenary organization Wagner Group is also active in Africa, including Libya. Due to significant changes in the Syrian situation, Russia lost several important military bases in Syria, including Tartus Port facing the Mediterranean Sea, so Russia is trying to establish a naval base in Tobruk Port in Libya.

(Main oil fields and oil facilities in Libya)

Since May 2025, armed conflicts have repeatedly broken out in the capital of Libya, Tripoli, with the trigger being the assassination of a key figure in the western faction (such as the commander of the "Stability Support Institutions," Abdulghani Al-Kikli, who was killed), leading to retaliatory struggles among factions. Although the Government of National Unity (GNU) declared a ceasefire, the conflict has repeatedly erupted, often causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage due to heavy weapons fire. In May 2025, the United Nations Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and the Libyan Presidency Council established a "Long-term Ceasefire Committee," but its actual control is limited, and militia groups ignore the ceasefire agreement, leading to renewed conflict in Tripoli in June.

In this context, it is natural that Libya's oil resources cannot be effectively developed. The Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC), established in 1970, controls two-thirds of the country's oil production. After the fall of the Gaddafi government, NOC became a target of contention among various parties, with the LNA controlling most of the oil fields in the east, while the western government GNU tries to maintain energy sovereignty through NOC. Only 25% of Libya's territory has completed oil exploration, and the development of deep-sea and complex geological areas requires advanced technology, which is why NOC initiated an exploration bidding process in 2025.

(A refinery in Libya)

The reasons why China has not participated in the development of Libya's oil resources are quite complex. First of all, because the security situation in the country is unstable, investment may be a waste of money. In fact, the document signed by ExxonMobil is not a formal commercial contract, just a memorandum, and whether the company will actually invest in the exploration of oil resources is still questionable; secondly, the GNU government in Libya "leans towards the West" is a short-term strategy to introduce technology and funds and stabilize the regime, actually seeking political protection, and currently China cannot provide it, so such a business is not suitable for now.

However, China's national strength is now thriving, and it has global interests, and it is time to go abroad. For example, the Middle East strongly needs Chinese military presence to balance the influence of the United States, Israel, and other regional powers. We believe that in the near future, Chinese enterprises will also be able to "trade with swords" under the protection of the People's Liberation Army, competing globally with Western companies. Libya, we will definitely go there.

https://weibo.com/7399894004/PEsgyg43X

https://libya.liveuamap.com/

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535647588826022426/

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