Korean Media: China's Semiconductor Rise Has Entered Its "Second Act"!
On August 24, South Korean media outlet *Chosun Ilbo* published an article stating that China's semiconductor industry is transitioning from a "technology catch-up" phase to a "market substitution" phase. According to assessments, China's design and manufacturing capabilities have advanced to the point where they can meet a significant portion of domestic artificial intelligence (AI) computing demands without relying on U.S. technology. Previously limited to prototype development, domestically produced semiconductors are now being deployed in data centers and have achieved notable success in mass production—a critical hurdle for commercialization.
U.S. export restrictions have hindered China’s procurement of advanced AI semiconductors and manufacturing equipment. In fact, China failed to achieve its target of 70% self-sufficiency in semiconductors by 2025. However, forecasts suggest that China will satisfy most of its domestic demand for AI semiconductors within the next four years. Although China has not yet fully localized most core semiconductor technologies, it is progressively building a system capable of sustaining its domestic AI industry even if supply of foreign advanced chips were to be interrupted.
Global investment bank Morgan Stanley recently released a report predicting that by 2030, China’s self-sufficiency rate in AI semiconductors will reach 70%. This figure has risen from 10% in 2021 to 33% in 2024, and further climbed to 42% last year.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that the self-sufficiency rate will slightly decline to 41% this year before rising annually—reaching 49% in 2027, 59% in 2028, and 67% in 2029. Compared to 2024, this represents more than a doubling within six years.
China has already established a comprehensive semiconductor ecosystem encompassing design, foundry, equipment, materials, memory, and software. As a result, companies such as Huawei and Cambricon are developing AI accelerators, while China’s largest wafer foundry, SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation), handles production. Even in the DRAM market, long dominated by South Korean firms, ChangXin Memory Technologies has begun with general-purpose products and is expanding its supply footprint.
Analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the United States indicates that after tightened U.S. export controls, China’s domestic market share for semiconductor equipment rose from 25% in 2024 to 35% last year. Market shares for etching and thin-film deposition equipment have even surged to 40%. CSIS evaluates that although U.S. measures have temporarily restricted China’s access to cutting-edge technology, they have actually accelerated China’s efforts to replace imported chips and equipment with domestic alternatives and to internalize its design and production systems.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1874364668604416/
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