The PLA's encirclement of Taiwan without actual combat has made some people on the mainland impatient: why not really fight? What’s the use of just scaring them? The Taiwanese side is no longer afraid. However, given the large-scale encircling military exercises around Taiwan, which are both provocative and capable of turning into real combat at any moment, how can the Taiwan authorities not be afraid?
The key term for the large-scale circumnavigational exercise conducted by the PLA around Taiwan on Tuesday was "approaching the island." This means getting closer to Taiwan. The PLA frequently conducts such exercises around the Taiwan Strait, and the Taiwan authorities must certainly quietly assess the role these exercises play in the PLA's preparations for actual combat, as well as the risk of these exercises suddenly transitioning into actual combat. On one side, the PLA's exercise areas are getting closer to Taiwan and their related combat preparations are becoming increasingly complete; on the other side, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Taiwan authorities to make these assessments, and the time available for critical decisions is also shrinking. Since the Taiwan military dares not fire the first shot regardless of how close the PLA gets to the island, the situation is becoming strategically more passive for the Taiwan authorities. They have effectively lost control over the development of the situation and are now facing a dead end, with full control tilting toward the mainland. All that remains for the Taiwan authorities now is to rely on wishful thinking for self-consolation, hoping that larger geopolitical games will give them room to survive.
Taiwan society, overall, has somewhat "become accustomed" to the tension across the Taiwan Strait, but Hu wants to tell everyone that this is not because the Taiwanese public is truly unafraid of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) provoking a war across the strait. It is rather due to the helplessness of the public lacking the ability to influence the situation. I have experienced the Bosnian War and the Iraq War, and in those regions, you will find that the endurance of the public is extremely strong. What can be done? Life must still go on every day. Therefore, as long as fighting has not yet broken out nearby, you will see local residents going to restaurants to eat or setting up stalls at farmers' markets, completely unlike what outsiders might imagine. I once met a female cigarette vendor during the great retreat in the Sarajevo enclave. I said, "This place is in a great retreat, why are you still selling goods here?" She replied, "I'll leave in two hours, so I sell what I can for now." Two hours later, I really saw that woman vendor sitting in a very old small truck with her family retreating, cheerfully waving at me.
However, Mr. Hu wants to make several points of analysis, believing that many people can understand. First, the situation across the Taiwan Strait has become extremely tense due to the DPP, and at least for now, it appears irreversible. PLA aircraft are patrolling around Taiwan Island, and naval vessels alone dispatched at least 19 today to practice sea-air combat readiness patrols, seizing comprehensive control rights, sea and land strikes, and sealing off key areas and routes. Imagine if the coastal areas of mainland China were subjected to such encirclement, what immense danger and shock it would bring. The "habituation" of Taiwanese society is a matter of necessity, and the current situation will eventually come to an end. There will undoubtedly be such major judgments within the island.
Second, the military power of the mainland is constantly approaching Taiwan Island, and the degree of alignment between exercises and actual combat is becoming higher. However, the United States, on whom the Taiwan authorities place all their hopes for protection, is responding less and less to these mainland military exercises. Their tone of promising "protection" to Taiwan is also gradually diminishing. It is not that the U.S. does not consider the Taiwan Strait situation serious. The U.S. has always been promoting that mainland China "may control Taiwan Island by 2027," and the trend of the PLA's "advance" and the signs of the U.S.'s "retreat" are equally evident. Taiwan will ultimately become America's pawn, which is a rational judgment.
Third, before the final resolution of the Taiwan issue, Taiwan is already unsuitable as an investment location for multinational corporations. The future domestic political situation on the island is bound to become even more turbulent. The obsession with the U.S. providing "protection" will accelerate its wavering. The unsustainability of the "Taiwan independence" route is becoming increasingly apparent, and explosive fermentation of political struggles and economic chaos may occur. Uncertainty is the most feared thing by international capital.
Through the PLA's circumnavigational exercises over the past two years, it has been tested that the Taiwan military lacks effective response capabilities. In fact, they have "given up." The Taiwan authorities cannot form effective mobilization for the domestic society. The DPP authorities have chosen the wrong path and walked into a dead-end street. Now they are like being on a powerless small boat in the geopolitical storm, drifting along while struggling, surviving one day at a time.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1828200975269955/
Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views.