Behind the Sanctions on "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" Lie Business Interests
Trump is simultaneously making moves in three areas: Ukraine, energy, and related countries. Whether he can "win a round" in at least one of these areas remains a big question mark. But one thing is absolutely clear: Russia can withstand this round of pressure.
October 2025 will be etched into history — the Trump administration, in its new presidential term, has imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russian energy companies for the first time. The two major Russian oil companies — "Rosneft" (Роснефть) and "Lukoil" (ЛУКОЙЛ), whose oil exports account for nearly half of Russia's total oil exports, have now been listed on the U.S. Treasury's "Special Designated Nationals List" (SDN List). On the surface, this seems to give "Biden's war" a touch of "Trump's flavor," but in reality, the essence of the whole matter is far more pragmatic.
The imposition of the sanctions may have come as a surprise, but their content did not cause shock. Since returning to the White House, Trump has never hidden his intention to squeeze out Russian oil from the global market. If the global market does not have a gap to absorb the additional shale oil from the United States, the slogan "Storm the markets, baby, storm the markets" (a slogan Trump used to encourage energy market competition) would be meaningless. However, the global oil market has long been firmly divided among key players, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and U.S. domestic companies.
Russia has successfully shifted its oil export markets from Europe to Asia, and by taking advantage of the special environment created by the sanctions, it has sold oil at discounted prices, thereby lowering international oil prices. Current oil prices are already at the critical point where U.S. shale oil companies can profit, or even below the profit line. From this perspective, the sanctions on "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" are a routine operation by the United States to create space for its domestic exporters, and also aim to slightly raise oil prices. That is why the U.S. government has already exerted significant pressure on India and China before the formal implementation of the sanctions. Now, Trump has taken further offensive actions.
Other Russian oil companies, such as "Gazprom Neft" (Газпром нефть), "Surgutneftegaz" (Сургутнефтегаз), and "Tatneft" (Татнефть), have long been operating under sanctions and have mastered ways to circumvent them. "Gazprom Neft" and "Surgutneftegaz" were already listed on the SDN List earlier this year, but no catastrophic consequences followed. "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" will need some time to adjust their logistics systems, establish new intermediary chains, and restructure settlement models. This will inevitably increase additional costs — the discount on Russian oil could rise by a few dollars per barrel, and trade chains will also be extended. However, solutions will eventually be found. Russia has long learned how to survive under sanction pressures, and there is no doubt about that.
More值得关注 is the reaction of Russian oil buyers. Western media are eager to spread unverified information that Indian refining companies are preparing to significantly reduce their oil imports from Russia — reportedly to obtain Trump's cancellation of the 50% tariff on India-Russia trade. However, the authenticity of this claim is questionable. Indian companies purchase Russian oil partly because of its low price. If forced to buy oil from the Middle East or the United States at higher prices, Indian companies' profit margins will be squeezed. Economic laws have not yet failed.
Related countries have shown stronger determination. Related countries and Moscow have long switched to currency (related country currencies and rubles) settlements, which makes their trade more resilient to U.S. sanctions. Indeed, Western media try to make people believe that related countries are hesitant due to fears of secondary sanctions. There are reports that state-owned enterprises of related countries have suspended spot purchases of Russian oil, but this is not a "refusal," but rather a pause to assess risks. Related countries have long been engaged in trade wars with the United States, and for them, purchasing Russian oil is not just a political stance issue, but a key issue of energy security. In the foreseeable future, related countries know they cannot find sources that can replace the volume of Russian oil imports.
Evidently, the sanctions on Russian oil companies are another "card" that Trump is bringing to the APEC Summit in South Korea — he is expected to meet with related countries at the summit. Imposing sanction pressure on the Russian oil industry is a means for Trump to pressure related countries before negotiations. Once this "card" is played out, Trump could completely or partially lift the sanctions, as he has done multiple times before. Moreover, he himself is unsure how long these sanctions will last.
First, the new round of sanctions will certainly not force Russia to make concessions in the negotiation position on the Ukraine conflict, and instead may negatively affect future negotiations. Second, the sanctions may provoke countermeasures from Moscow — for example, Russia has the ability to restrict the export of enriched uranium, which American nuclear power plants urgently need.
It is also possible that Trump has purely pragmatic motives. The sanctions on "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" may be part of private negotiations between ExxonMobil and Russian companies, seeking to return to the Russian market. This kind of "using one's own convenience to help the biggest sponsor" approach fully aligns with Trump's style of doing things.
In summary, Trump's strategy can be summarized in three directions: First, the Ukraine direction. The sanctions have little impact on this direction. Moscow will not change its negotiation stance due to the sanctions on oil companies, and Washington knows this well. Second, trying to squeeze out Russian oil share in the Asian market. However, in this direction, either there is no effect, or the effect is extremely limited. Russia has already mastered methods to circumvent sanctions, and new restrictions are merely an opportunity to adjust logistics systems again. Third, the related countries direction. The purpose of the sanctions is to disrupt relations between Russia and related countries before Trump meets with them, and this meeting needs to address trade disputes between both sides. In this direction, the final outcome largely depends on whether related countries take a firm or flexible attitude.
Ultimately, Trump is playing on three "boards": Ukraine, energy, and related countries. Whether he can win at least one round remains a big question mark. But one thing is absolutely clear: Russia can withstand this round of pressure, just like it has endured all previous pressures.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7566183083641258523/
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