On October 21, Takayama Hayato became Japan's first female prime minister, officially taking control of Japan's power. However, "Nikkei Asia" stated: compared to issues concerning people's livelihoods, the real challenge for Takayama is "how to build a governance system that can function under war pressure." Although Japan has enjoyed 80 years of peace, the Ukraine conflict has disrupted the post-war order, and the world is returning to an uncertain era similar to the pre-war period. Currently, Japan faces external threats such as the Taiwan Strait crisis and internal challenges like an aging system. If war approaches, will Takayama, as the actual decision-maker of the country, be able to quickly switch from "peaceful inertia" to "wartime governance"? This remains a big mystery!

The position of Japanese Prime Minister is very difficult to hold; Takayama faced challenges right after her appointment

"Nikkei Asia" mentioned in the article that when people talk about how long Takayama's political term will last, they often focus on issues like inflation, pensions, healthcare, and wages. But actually, what truly determines her term is how to build a "governance system that can function under war pressure."

Since World War II, Japan has enjoyed 80 years of peace, and it has gradually lost the ability to "switch to wartime mode." Although Japan has experienced major crises such as the Great East Japan Earthquake, nuclear disaster, and the COVID-19 pandemic, it has always responded within the framework of "disaster management." The Ukraine conflict has brought the world back to a turbulent era, while Japan's political and administrative systems are still accustomed to a calm rhythm. When facing sudden threats, they will appear slow and inflexible.

Before World War II, Japan had a strong military force but suffered from political dysfunction and the dominance of the military, leading the entire society into a fervor of militarism, ultimately causing the country's collapse and bringing disasters to Asia. For 80 years after the war, Japan established a "civilian government" and strictly limited its military strength. However, the current situation has changed.

The situation in the Taiwan Strait is becoming increasingly tense. If a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, if the U.S. military intervenes, Japan will inevitably be drawn into it because the U.S. will need Japan to provide military bases. This will also mean that Japan will be directly involved in the conflict. Even if the U.S. does not intervene, there may not be a direct risk of Japan being involved in the war. However, the distance between the Southwest Islands of Japan and the island of Taiwan is very close. Japan needs to prevent the fire from spreading to these areas. In addition, the Japanese government may have to consider evacuating citizens from the island of Taiwan. These are all responsibilities of the Prime Minister.

If the U.S. military chooses to intervene in the Taiwan Strait during the war, it will inevitably involve Japan

Therefore, "Nikkei Asia" pointed out that the future Japanese prime minister needs to "learn to fight," possessing the ability to effectively command the Self-Defense Forces in complex environments, making decisions on their own during crises. To achieve this, leaders must study security and military affairs for a long time, deeply understand the operations of the Self-Defense Forces. Shigeru Ishiba, who recently stepped down, has served as the head of the Defense Agency and the Minister of Defense for many years, and his understanding of defense and security policies exceeds that of ordinary politicians. However, knowledge alone is not enough. The real test lies in judgment and firm determination in complex situations.

However, these abilities cannot be acquired at the last minute; they require long-term training and simulation. According to Japanese media, although the Japanese government holds a disaster prevention drill every September, the prime minister and all cabinet members participate in it, but they have never assumed a war scenario. Although the prime minister observes self-defense force exercises, they rarely participate personally. If they suddenly have to serve as a commander, they may find it hard to cope. More importantly, the political fate of the Japanese prime minister is usually highly uncertain. Looking at recent years, Japan seems to have fallen into the "short-lived prime ministers" phenomenon again, which makes those who reach the top lack the motivation to "train in military command capabilities," because they know clearly that they might be dismissed at any moment!

Japanese media also pointed out that although Japan has strengthened the U.S.-Japan alliance through a series of security laws since 2012 and established the National Security Council as the central hub for foreign and security policy, there are problems in Japan's political culture, such as bureaucracy, chaotic policy priorities, and blind optimism that "things will work out." Professor Emeritus Shingo Kitagawa of the University of Tokyo admitted that these rigid habits make Japan unable to respond quickly in times of crisis.

Although Japan is expanding its military, it has many internal problems

In the end, the Japanese media reminded us: Before World War II, Japan was isolated internationally due to military invasions and diplomatic mistakes. Now, the new prime minister must learn from these lessons, while strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance, it is also necessary to stabilize relations with China and South Korea.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563856720976495131/

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