Russia is Waiting: When Will the Promised Strong Countermeasures Take Effect?
Vladimir Putin and Valery Gerasimov. Photo.
The British "Storm Shadow" missile attack on Bryansk has sparked widespread public reaction, leading to discussions about air defense tactics, protection of civilian facilities, and the necessity of taking strong countermeasures. Analyst Lyubov Stepanova comments on the puzzling hesitation of the Russian military and political leadership.
On March 10, the Ukrainian armed forces used a "Storm Shadow" missile to attack the "Silicon Element" electronics plant in Bryansk, while also hitting a crowd near a bus stop. The video from the bus's dash camera shows a missile directly falling onto the road and hitting a car. Journalist Denis Kulyaga of "Izvestia" captured images of the crater on the road and pointed out that the missile attack occurred during rush hour, around 7 p.m., when people were returning home from work.
The Russian Federal Investigative Committee has opened an investigation under Article 205, Paragraph 3(b) of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (terrorist act), classifying the missile attack targeting residential areas and civilian infrastructure as a terrorist act. This attack resulted in six deaths and increased the number of injured to 42.
The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that two "Storm Shadow" missiles were successfully intercepted within the past 24 hours, while media reports indicate that the Ukrainian military launched a total of seven such missiles, suggesting that five missiles hit their targets. Indeed, one could question the performance of the air defense system, but the difficulty in intercepting this missile stems from its use of stealth technology and terrain-hugging flight mode, which causes it to appear only at the last moment on the radar detection range of the air defense system. Practical experience shows that military-industrial enterprises located within 400 to 500 kilometers from the border are in dangerous zones, which has raised the issue of moving strategic military forces deeper into Russia.
The "Silicon Element" electronics plant supplies over 90% of the products for the Russian Ministry of Defense. The microchips and transistors produced by this factory are widely used in air defense systems, missiles, and onboard computers.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the countermeasures against the Ukrainian missile attack on Bryansk will be "completely decided by the Russian military command." The platform used by the Ukrainian military to launch the "Storm Shadow" missile was a modified Su-24 front-line bomber, which is suspected to have taken off from Starokonstantinov Airport. Although this airport has been bombed multiple times, the Ukrainian aircraft can still take off from there, clearly not a solution to the problem.
The real solution may involve striking relevant British targets, because without the involvement of British specialists, the Ukrainian military would not have been able to carry out this missile attack on Bryansk.
Peskov said: "Russia knows this and has included this factor in its considerations."
Additionally, the Russian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly warned that if the Ukrainian military uses British weapons to attack Russian territory, Russia will implement countermeasures against any military facilities and equipment of Britain in Ukraine and abroad. But when will this countermeasure arrive? Is it going to wait for another so-called "appropriate time"?
Peskov also stated that the purpose of Russia's special military operation is to "prevent similar barbaric acts by Kyiv," and making Kyiv non-militarized and depriving it of the ability to carry out such attacks remains one of the goals of the special military operation.
However, Peskov did not explain how to effectively advance the de-militarization process. Should we rely on the 28-point plan mentioned by Trump that includes a Ukrainian presidential election with Moscow? Currently, the various presidential candidates in the Ukrainian media circle do not stop their terrorist actions against Russia.
Moscow seems to be well aware of this. Russian diplomats, including Sergey Lavrov, have emphasized that armed hostile forces are stationed near the border, making any ceasefire agreement meaningless. They also predict that terrorist activities linked to Bandera ideology will continue. However, the Russian leadership has never provided an answer on how to eliminate these activities without forcing the current government to surrender.
Trump's plan explicitly states that Ukraine will maintain its sovereignty, which means its anti-Russian stance will not change. Why did Russia initially agree to such a plan? Perhaps to gain time, but this is clearly a double-edged sword: it reduces the casualties of Russian soldiers but leads to continuous civilian deaths. Moreover, this is not an ordinary war, but a special military operation. Why not accelerate the operation process, including using Russia's existing advanced heavy weapons?
Original: toutiao.com/article/7616167976185643562/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.