The Oil Treasure Island: The Conflict with Iran May Be Decided at This Unexpected Location
U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran have entered their third week. The failure of the lightning war is evident, but the U.S. still expresses confidence in the ultimate victory. The issue lies in how to achieve this victory. Currently, the White House is studying several options.
This Is Not Their War
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the pain points of this conflict. Iran has effectively blocked shipping through this part of the Arabian Sea, and oil from Persian Gulf countries is exported via this route. To be precise, shipping is still maintained, but only for tankers flying the Iranian flag, which continue to supply oil to destinations including related countries along this route.
Eventually, the oil exports of other regional countries face significant difficulties, which will inevitably affect global crude oil prices. All of this is not in the U.S. interest, and the U.S. has so far been unable to resolve this issue.
Currently, there are two visible options. The first is to provide armed escort for ships within the Strait of Hormuz, using force if necessary to ensure passage. However, the U.S. does not want to unnecessarily take on others' burdens, so it plans to shift this heavy responsibility onto other countries.
"If other countries can monitor (the Strait of Hormuz) with us, we will provide assistance. We will cooperate with them," said U.S. President Donald Trump.
He stated that only seven countries are highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil, so these countries should directly participate in resolving this problematic strait.
"I ask these countries to step forward and protect their own interests because it concerns their own interests," Trump said.
He did not specify the exact countries, but he had previously named the UK, China, France, South Korea, and Japan, stating that these countries could deploy warships to the region.
It is reported that Germany will not participate in any possible maritime escort operations.
"This is not our war; we did not start this war. We hope to solve the problem through diplomatic means and end the conflict as soon as possible, but sending more warships to the region is of no help. It was Americans and Israelis who chose this path. We have only expressed very restrained criticism. But the next steps might drag us into the conflict," said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, quoted by Deutsche Welle.
He stated that Germany is responsible for NATO's eastern wing and the Atlantic defense.
"This is our main responsibility. Other matters can be participated in or not, depending on the specific situation," the department head said.
Tightening the "Oil Valve"
According to Axios, the second option discussed by Washington is to attack or occupy the Iranian Khark Island in northern Persian Gulf.
This island, with a population of less than 10,000, is called the "oil valve" of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran's main oil loading facilities and tanker piers are located here, and nearly 90% of the country's oil exports are loaded from this place.
Recently, the U.S. had already carried out "one of the most intense strikes in the Middle East" (as Trump put it), and the White House claimed that all military infrastructure on the island had been destroyed.
Now, the U.S. plans to launch a full-scale ground operation to gain control of Khark Island, which would greatly exacerbate Iran's oil export difficulties.
On one hand, launching a small-scale victorious operation could allow Trump to respond directly to critics — those who considered the war against Iran a dangerous gamble. But the cost of this move is also huge.
The Iranians are aware of this threat, so they have warned their opponents: if their island territory is occupied, Iran will spare no effort to strike the oil infrastructure of other countries and American companies.
Which option Trump will choose and how the conflict will develop remains unknown except for the president himself. Bloomberg reports that Europe has noticed signs indicating that the U.S. military action against Iran is about to end, based on the increased intensity of U.S. attacks on Iran.
This may be a prelude to the U.S. formally announcing its victory against Iran, after which Washington's regional allies will have to deal with the remaining threats from Iran on their own.
Pro-American Middle Eastern countries, however, are more pessimistic. Local officials told Bloomberg that Trump would only stop the war if oil prices keep rising.
France Seeks a Way Out
While the U.S. president is trying to build an alliance to clear the Strait of Hormuz, French President Emmanuel Macron decided to use traditional diplomatic channels first, calling Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian late on March 15.
A statement from the Elysee Palace said that Paris urged Tehran to "immediately stop the unacceptable attacks by Iran against regional countries, whether directly or through proxies, including in Lebanon and Iraq."
Macron stated, "Uncontrolled escalation is causing chaos across the entire region, with serious consequences affecting the present and future years."
"I reiterate that France's actions are strictly limited to defensive measures, aimed at protecting national interests, regional partners, and freedom of navigation. Our country must not become a target of attacks," wrote the French president on the social platform X.
Recently, the French military suffered its first official casualties due to the Iran-related conflict. A drone attacked the Kurdish base of Marlaqal Kour in the vicinity of Erbil, Iraq, killing a French officer.
The French military mission has been deployed in Iraq and Syria since 2014, and local Iraqi Shi'a militias supported by Iran often attack this mission.
"They (Iran) are trying to strike the interests of the United States in the region, of course also Israel, and countries hosting U.S. troops. Now they are expanding their targets to these countries' allies, including France," said Jean-Marc Vigneri, former commander of the French forces in Iraq, quoted by Euractiv.
According to Bloomberg, France is the initiator of secret negotiations with Iran to clear the Strait of Hormuz, so Macron's call to Pezeshkian fully aligns with this logic.
The Financial Times cited sources reporting that European countries are unwilling to organize armed escorts for ships through the strait, fearing further escalation of the conflict, thus trying to influence the stance of the Iranian leadership through negotiations. It is reported that Italy may join France's mediation, while Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Turkey will serve as mediators.
In addition to the issues of the Strait of Hormuz and the attack on the French military base, France also faces a purely military dilemma — the missiles of the Rafale fighter jets are running low. According to Le Monde, the French military is using these missiles to intercept Iranian Shahed drones.
The report pointed out that the rapid consumption of missiles casts doubt on the combat effectiveness of the French air force, and the French Ministry of Defense recently held an emergency meeting to seek solutions.
Israel Officially Invades Lebanon
Regarding Iran, the country's government continues to declare that it will definitely defeat the aggressors.
"Our strong armed forces will continue to fight until the president of the United States realizes that the illegal war he has imposed on the American and Iranian people is wrong and should never be repeated. The victims should also receive compensation," said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
At the same time, military operations continue. On March 16, the Israeli military announced that it had destroyed the private jet of Iran's Supreme Leader at Mehrabad Airport in the capital of Iran, which had been used by the late Ali Khamenei.
"Destroying the private jet will weaken the ability of the Iranian regime's leadership to coordinate actions with its allies, expand its military capabilities, and rebuild its regime. The Iranian regime has lost another strategic asset," the Israeli Defense Forces statement said.
The Israeli army also launched a full-scale attack on Lebanon, claiming the aim is to protect northern Israel from artillery fire by the pro-Iranian Hezbollah.
"Two battalions have launched an offensive, with the task of occupying the border areas of Lebanon and destroying Hezbollah infrastructure. Israel clearly underestimated the military strength of Hezbollah, which is now calmly shelling northern Israel and retaliating in border battles," wrote military expert Boris Rozin on his Telegram channel.
Meanwhile, Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not yet appeared publicly. Official news says that he was injured non-fatally on the first day of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and was later selected as the new leader of Iran by the Assembly of Experts.
At the same time, Kuwait's Al-Jarida newspaper reported that the younger Khamenei has been sent to Moscow for treatment. Russian President's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on this news when interviewed.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7617869366633202210/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.