By Sanxuan

After the high court decided to hold the House of Representatives election in advance, Japan's two major opposition parties took action.

On the 15th local time, the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Komeito Party held a meeting between their party leaders, and both agreed to jointly establish a new party to jointly challenge Takahashi Hayato.

Party leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Hideaki Honda (right), and party leader of Komeito, Tetsuo Hazuda (left)

These two opposition parties have a significant position. One has the second-largest number of seats in the House of Representatives, and the other was a long-term ally of the Liberal Democratic Party. Whether in terms of seats or prestige, they are among the top in the Japanese political arena and are the most likely to counter the Liberal Democratic Party.

The new party form envisioned by the two parties is as follows: each party will retain its own party, with members of the two parties resigning from their original parties to join the new one. This way, even if the cooperation ends later, each party has a way out.

The Japanese House of Representatives election has two forms: proportional representation and single-member districts. To avoid internal competition, Komeito will fully prepare for the proportional representation election, while the Constitutional Democratic Party will focus on winning the single-member districts.

At the same time, both sides can concentrate resources to support each other's candidates, without any competitive relationship. In previous elections, Komeito had always supported the Liberal Democratic Party.

Hayato Takahashi

Although Komeito's popularity is not as high as that of the Liberal Democratic Party, it seems more like a supporting leaf for a red flower, but in the past, the Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito alliance was known as a symbol of stability in the eyes of voters.

Although the Liberal Democratic Party is strong, it is easy for extremists to take over. As a centrist party, Komeito can pull the Liberal Democratic Party back when it goes astray, and also serve as a buffer between Japan and its neighboring countries, especially in Sino-Japanese relations, where Komeito has made significant efforts.

Facts have proven that since the separation of the Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito alliance, the Japanese government has been on a right-wing path, and the newly formed Liberal Democratic Party-Wakasa Alliance is the most right-wing government in recent years, with Wakasa being even more extreme than the Liberal Democratic Party. As a result, after Takahashi Hayato offended China, the ruling coalition could not find a moderate party that could speak with China.

In the two chambers of the Diet, the Liberal Democratic Party-Wakasa Alliance is in a precarious position. The House of Representatives barely passed the majority, and the House of Councillors is a minority. This is why Takahashi Hayato is taking a gamble to dissolve the Diet in advance.

Takahashi's gamble

A reason for supporting Takahashi's risky move is that her approval rating has remained around 70%, even after damaging Sino-Japanese relations, her approval rating remains high, which is rare in the Japanese political arena.

However, as China continues to implement countermeasures against Japan, the negative impact on the Japanese economy will gradually become apparent. Takahashi Hayato is still in the "new prime minister's honeymoon period," and once this goodwill is exhausted, the situation may be harder to control.

Therefore, she must hold the general election in advance before the new prime minister's "honey period" ends. If successful, the Liberal Democratic Party can regain the majority of seats in the Diet, and even without forming an alliance with other parties, it can achieve a majority of seats independently.

Takahashi's prime ministership has just begun. Only when the foundation of her rule is solid can she exert her influence and push sensitive issues such as military expansion and nuclear possession. If she continues to drag on, she may soon exhaust her honey period and be forced to step down.

The Japanese House of Representatives will hold early elections

Of course, there is also a great possibility of losing. Whether Takahashi Hayato's high personal approval rating can be converted into the Liberal Democratic Party's electoral situation remains to be seen. The "black money scandal" has not yet been resolved, and it will inevitably be brought up again in every election.

But regardless of the outcome, it will not change the deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations. The election is Japan's internal affair, but as long as Takahashi Hayato does not apologize and admit fault, China's sanctions will not stop.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7595527390755914274/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.