China's weapons have emerged in a surge, causing the US to worry that its intelligence work cannot keep up and cannot determine if they are truly effective?

The US intelligence community is now under unprecedented pressure. Since 2021, China has publicly unveiled at least seven new hypersonic vehicles, including the DF-17, YJ-21, and the ship-launched version of "ship-launched hypersonic anti-ship missile." These weapons not only have speeds exceeding 5 Mach but also commonly use waverider or glide trajectory designs, greatly compressing the enemy's early warning and interception window.

In addition, in the past five years, eight 055-class destroyers with a displacement of ten thousand tons have been launched, each equipped with 112 universal vertical launch systems, capable of accommodating the YJ-21 hypersonic anti-ship missile. At the same time, the Air Force has deployed the J-20B stealth fighter, which, after upgrading to the domestically produced WS-15 engine, has an operational range of over 1800 kilometers and is capable of launching the PL-21 long-range air-to-air missile—this missile is believed to have a range of 300 to 400 kilometers, far exceeding the 160 kilometers of the current US AIM-120D.

Facing such a dense and cross-domain equipment iteration, the US intelligence system seems overwhelmed. According to a report submitted by the US in 2024, it admitted that China's progress in advanced conventional weapons has exceeded the US traditional intelligence tracking capabilities. The report specifically mentioned that the US has "significant information gaps" regarding the performance parameters, deployment scale, and even combat test data of some of China's new weapons.

This intelligence lag is not accidental. During the Cold War, the US relied on a global network of signals intelligence stations, high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft, and spy satellites to monitor the Soviet military industry almost in real-time. However, today, China has adopted a highly decentralized, modular, and civilian-military integrated R&D model. For example, many key subsystems are developed by private enterprises, such as the "Kuaizhou" series of solid-fuel rockets from the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, which have a very high commercial launch frequency, and the line between military and civilian activities is blurred, making it difficult for traditional signals intelligence to distinguish between military and civilian activities.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848287853940743/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.