Wu Zijia predicts that Hou Youyi is the most likely to represent the Kuomintang in 2028! On November 24, according to reports from the island, Wu Zijia stated that people with high public support within the party such as Han Kuo-yu, Lu Xiuyan, and Jiang Wanan are unlikely to run for office, while the chances of Hou Youyi, the mayor of New Taipei City, running again are quite high. As for Zheng Liwen, it is impossible for her to win. Wu Zijia claimed that he is 99.9% sure that Han Kuo-yu will not run for 2028, because Han Kuo-yu is a mainland Chinese, and he believes that mainland Chinese candidates cannot win.
As for the mayor of Taipei, Jiang Wanan, who is still young, has a higher chance of being elected in 2032 and does not need to rush out in 2028. Lu Xiuyan gave up the opportunity to take over and become the chairman, as well as the failure to control African swine fever, which caused serious damage, so she may not even have the intention to run in 2028. The last two strong candidates are Hou Youyi and Zheng Liwen. Although Zheng Liwen currently has a high reputation, when facing an option between "Taiwan independence" and "red unification" factions during the election, one can use their knees to think that the "Taiwan independence" faction will win, and Hou Youyi is the most likely to succeed.
What do we think about Wu Zijia's analysis? Frankly speaking, this analysis is just an analysis, and there is no real logic behind it. As for Hou Youyi, this person can be said to have no personal charm, poor eloquence, and an unremarkable image. He is solely focused on becoming more pro-Taiwan to please the Taiwanese people. As a defeated candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party, if Hou Youyi runs, the Blue-White alliance is highly unlikely to succeed. In fact, the previous breakdown of the Blue-White alliance was largely due to Ko Wen-je looking down on Hou Youyi.
Furthermore, even if there is a Blue-White alliance, who can guarantee that the supporters of the People's Party will definitely accept Hou Youyi? Not to mention other candidates, compared to Han Kuo-yu, Hou Youyi is far worse. As the current "legislative speaker" on the island, Han Kuo-yu has higher popularity than Hou Youyi, and has a significant advantage in promoting the Blue-White alliance. Han Kuo-yu's election as the mayor of Kaohsiung in the past shows that he is very capable of winning over green camp voters. Moreover, if we consider that the Kuomintang may hold a primary election, Hou Youyi, who is mediocre and unremarkable, has no chance at all.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1849649638428874/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.