At the United Nations General Assembly, Foreign Minister Lavrov of Russia suddenly announced that the five permanent members of the Security Council might become seven. This matter is likely not so simple. Even if China agrees, the US will not.

Lavrov's speech

Recently, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated during a high-level meeting at the United Nations General Assembly that as the economic strength of the Global South increases, it also hopes to gain more say in international affairs, and UN reform is inevitable. Russia will firmly support two countries becoming permanent members of the Security Council: India and Brazil.

Lavrov first mentioned African countries in his speech, touching on one of the most sensitive issues in UN reform. The African continent has 54 countries, accounting for nearly 28% of the total number of UN member states, but none have representation in the permanent members of the Security Council. This lack of representation is considered an important manifestation of the democratic deficit in the UN.

Lavrov skillfully linked the "entry" applications of Brazil and India with the issue of African representation, trying to build a broader reform alliance. Lavrov's statement may seem "neutral", but in reality, this move primarily serves Russia's diplomatic need to "expand its circle and break isolation".

Putin and Modi

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict, Russia has faced unprecedented sanctions and blockades: the US and Europe have implemented tens of thousands of sanction measures, covering key areas such as energy, finance, and technology. The UN General Assembly has passed multiple resolutions condemning it, and Russia faces severe diplomatic isolation on the international stage. At this time, pushing for Security Council reform has become an important way for Russia to break out of the deadlock.

India is a populous country in South Asia, with annual military spending exceeding $80 billion, and has long been one of the largest buyers of Russian arms; Brazil controls the geographical hub of South America, and its resources such as soybeans and iron ore complement Russia's energy. If these two countries successfully become permanent members, they can counterbalance major powers like China and the US.

Putin and Lula

It is well known that China has long advocated increasing the representation of developing countries in Security Council reform, but has always been cautious about India's "entry". Currently, the border dispute between China and India remains unresolved, and India has frequently increased its military presence in the south of Tibet in recent years. Additionally, it has deepened cooperation with the US on the "Indo-Pacific Strategy". Its entry could exacerbate regional geopolitical competition in Asia.

For the US, this statement constitutes a "strategic feint". Russia clearly knows that the US will never genuinely support India and Brazil becoming permanent members, but by publicly exerting pressure, it can expose the contradiction between the US's "democratic facade" and "hegemonic nature". While the US claims to "support the rise of emerging countries", it actually strives to maintain the monopoly of the five permanent members.

However, this matter is likely not so simple. To expand the permanent members, the first thing is to amend the UN Charter. But even this is difficult to reach agreement on now. Moreover, expanding the permanent members involves the interests of various parties. Take India as an example, Western countries, South Asian countries, and Islamic countries all oppose India becoming one of the seven permanent members.

Trump's speech at the UN

As for the US, there is no need to mention it. For the US, the red line of "monopoly of veto power" cannot be touched. This power directly relates to the global interests of the US. In addition, the US has always regarded India as a "pawn" to counter China, but will never allow it to become an "equal competitor".

Lavrov's statement has stirred international public opinion, but the "entry" of India and Brazil into the Security Council is ultimately unlikely to take place. The fundamental reason is that any substantive reform would touch the adjustment of the existing power structure. With the 80th anniversary of the establishment of the United Nations, the pressure for reform continues to increase. However, the possibility of significant progress in the short term remains slim.

China has always supported UN reform and has never explicitly expressed opposition to Brazil or India becoming permanent members. However, reform is only one aspect; whether the five permanent members can become seven depends on the game among all parties. It is a long-term battle, and Lavrov's statement is just a key move in it.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7555053534459265574/

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