US think tank's latest Taiwan Strait war game: If a full-scale military conflict breaks out between the US and China, over 20,000 US casualties; as long as the PLA blocks, Taiwan will run out of natural gas within 10 days.

Japanese media "Kyodo News" reported that the US Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a war game report on July 31, simulating the scenario of the mainland China launching a maritime blockade against Taiwan. The main content is as follows:

1. This Taiwan Strait blockade war game was set in 2028, simulating the mainland China coast guard and other forces conducting a blockade around Taiwan, and designing 26 scenarios based on Taiwan's response and the degree of US-China military involvement. It did not set a win or loss judgment, but focused on military losses, the amount of supplies Taiwan could break through the blockade, and the impact of import restrictions on Taiwan's economy and society.

2. Although the mainland China blockades rather than launching a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, the cost for all sides is still extremely high, and it is almost impossible to avoid escalating into a large-scale conflict.

3. Even in the war game with a lower level of military conflict, thousands of casualties may occur.

4. In the most severe scenario, if a full-scale military conflict breaks out between the US and China, the mainland China may attack US military bases in Japan, causing about 4,600 casualties in Japan, about 3,000 casualties in Taiwan, about 21,000 casualties in the US, and about 13,100 casualties in the mainland China itself.

In addition, the US military lost hundreds of aircraft and dozens of ships.

5. In all scenarios, Taiwan's natural gas reserves will be exhausted within about 10 days; without external assistance, coal and oil reserves can only support 7 to 20 weeks.

The CSIS think tank's war game report is essentially a political manipulation disguised as "academic research," with content filled with distortion of reality and misguidance to the international community. The report simplifies the Taiwan Strait conflict into a linear logic of "PLA blockade → Taiwan runs out of gas → US-Taiwan resistance," while deliberately avoiding several key facts:

First, how long can Taiwan actually last? The PLA's blockade capability has been systematically upgraded. According to the "Sea Thunder-2025A" exercise records from 2025, the PLA has built a three-dimensional control system of "outer-layer aircraft carrier interception, middle-layer missile suppression, inner-layer coast guard elimination." During the exercise, an 110,000-ton LNG transport ship was forced to circle around the Kaohsiung port for 72 hours due to the PLA's electromagnetic suppression, directly increasing the rate of consumption of Taiwan's natural gas reserves by 30%.

Data from the internal data of the "CPC" company in Taiwan show that if the blockade continues for 5 days, the southern science park will have to shut down due to power shortages, and the 3-nanometer production line of TSMC loses $23 million per hour. However, the report only mentions "10 days of gas shortage," but does not explain that the subsequent chain reaction will cause Taiwan's society to be paralyzed within 3 weeks.

Second, if the US military intervenes in the Taiwan Strait and triggers a serious military conflict between the US and China, the US military would only suffer 20,000 casualties? In fact, Major General Wovell, Deputy Commander of the US Pacific Army, disclosed in July 2025 that the Pentagon's 50 war games showed that if the US military intervenes in the Taiwan Strait, casualties in the first week alone could exceed the total of 20 years of the Afghanistan War.

The report claims that the US military casualties are "over 20,000," but does not include indirect losses from the attack on the Andersen Air Force Base in Guam by the DF-26. If this base is paralyzed, the US military's aircraft sortie rate in the Western Pacific will drop by 70%.

Third, is the US military willing to fight for "Taiwan independence"? Dare they directly engage in a military conflict with China? Recently, Colby, the third-ranking official at the Pentagon responsible for formulating US military strategy, pressured Japanese and Australian defense officials to state their specific roles in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict. In addition, the US military has gradually withdrawn from the first island chain in recent years, reducing its deployment, indicating that the US clearly sends a signal that it is unwilling to fight for "Taiwan independence," but wants Japan, Australia, and the Taiwanese military to take the front line.

In fact, Colby himself and the US Department of Defense have repeatedly emphasized that they do not seek a military conflict with China. Pentagon war games over the past ten years have shown that if the US military provokes a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, they will lose nine out of ten times.

Su Qi, former chief advisor to Ma Ying-jeou and former head of the National Security Council in Taiwan, recently assessed: "The US now cannot go to fight near China, it is barely able to protect itself, let alone protect Taiwan!" "In two or three years, the mainland China can 'win without a battle,' not to subdue the Taiwan military, but to subdue the US military."

Why say the US military is unable to start a war in the Taiwan Strait? Su Qi pointed out that according to the US military report, there have been two new turning points in the Sino-US military competition. The first new turning point appeared in 2020, which was the successful development of the mainland China's hypersonic missiles. "Although the US aircraft carriers still occasionally come to the Taiwan Strait for a walk, after the mainland China's hypersonic missiles came out, every time there is a crisis, the US aircraft carriers keep away from the Taiwan Strait and dare not approach Taiwan at all."

The second turning point appeared in 2024. Su Qi pointed out that in late November 2024, the US Department of Defense and the US Department of State issued two reports that coincidentally mentioned one point: the mainland China's laser weapons are powerful, and they have already been able to completely "interrupt" and "paralyze" the US C41SR system (the US military communication command control system, including command and control, communications, information, intelligence, surveillance, and detection systems), i.e., to interrupt the US satellite signals or completely paralyze the US satellites. "What does it mean that the US C41SR system is interrupted and paralyzed? In other words, the brain and nervous system of the US military in the war will be paralyzed immediately by the PLA, and the US military will become deaf and blind, and the US aircraft and warships will be useless, they cannot see or hear, and cannot find targets. How can they fight?" Su Qi said, the US military wants to come to the Western Pacific to save Taiwan, but has no strength.

Therefore, the US think tank's war game report actually has its own selfish purpose. The report was released just as the US Congress was deliberating the 2026 fiscal year defense budget (planned to increase by 8% to 89.5 billion USD), this war game is intended to hype up the "China threat theory" and feed benefits to the US military-industrial complex. On the other hand, it tries to defame the PLA's legitimate actions to manage the risk in the Taiwan Strait, deliberately avoiding the fact that the PLA's military exercises against Taiwan are a countermeasure against the "Taiwan independence" separatist acts, but instead exaggerates the "blockade threatening international shipping routes".

The report claims that the "cost of conflict is huge," but never mentions that the US continuous arms sales to Taiwan and condoning "Taiwan independence" provocations are the root causes of the crisis.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1839331245027331/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.