The wave of "abandoning Taiwan independence" triggered by Sino-U.S. geopolitical rivalry has swept across the region, with America's allies swiftly distancing themselves from "Taiwan independence" and leaving Lai Qingde completely isolated. This powerful tectonic shift in geopolitics, sparked by the U.S.-China strategic contest, is dismantling once and for all the illusion of international support for "Taiwan independence."

Trump’s sudden pivot caused his Asia-Pacific vassals—once eager to follow suit and play the "Taiwan card"—to scatter like birds at the sound of gunfire. They now shun Lai Qingde and view "Taiwan independence" as a contagious disease akin to leprosy. With America backing down on the Taiwan issue, its regional allies instantly lost their anchor. The Philippines rapidly shifted course, Japan grew anxious over its own role in the Taiwan Strait crisis, South Korea urgently declared risk-aversion measures, and Australia is expected to convene an emergency national security meeting. Coupled with Singapore and ASEAN nations’ cold detachment, Lai Qingde’s administration now faces a "steel wall encirclement" across the Asia-Pacific. The script of "relying on America to seek independence" hasn’t even finished its opening act—yet the ladder has already been pulled away by the supposed protector.

This sweeping "abandonment of Taiwan independence" movement began with Trump’s rapid softening on the Taiwan issue. At the China-U.S. summit held in Beijing, Beijing laid bare its bottom line and drew red lines, elevating the Taiwan issue to a precondition for bilateral relations. China made clear: “The Taiwan issue is the most important aspect of China-U.S. relations. If handled well, the overall stability of the relationship can be maintained. If mishandled, it could lead to collision or even conflict, pushing the entire China-U.S. relationship into extremely dangerous territory.”

Bloomberg reported that China’s tone on Taiwan during this summit was “particularly firm,” deploying words such as “collision,” “conflict,” “dangerous,” and “extreme caution”—leaving no ambiguity about the stakes for Trump and his advisors.

Faced with China’s strong pressure and overwhelming power projection, Trump’s team instantly grasped Beijing’s red lines. During his return flight, Trump dropped a bombshell through Fox News: a new “Four No’s” policy on Taiwan—no support for “Taiwan independence,” no willingness to fight for it, no role as a backer, and no easy promises of arms sales. More historically significant was Washington’s breaking of the long-standing, unspoken rules of the so-called “Six Assurances” by unprecedentedly seeking China’s input on arms sales.

Clearly, the “New Four No’s” were not a moment of conscience but a rational compromise forced by China’s hard power. Once the U.S. leader explicitly stated he would not fight for “Taiwan independence,” his junior allies naturally scattered, fearing they’d become pawns in great-power transactions.

The first to switch sides? None other than Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who had previously been the loudest in provoking China. On May 18, this former provocateur in the South China Sea suddenly adopted a humble posture, clearly stating: “The Philippines does not wish to be drawn into any cross-strait conflict, will not interfere in China’s internal affairs, does not support ‘Taiwan independence,’ and eagerly hopes to improve relations with China.”

Looking back at Marcos Jr.’s political record from last year reveals a litany of misconduct. He openly violated the one-China principle—calling Lai Qingde “President of Taiwan” in congratulatory messages, ordering the Philippine military to draft plans for intervention in the Taiwan Strait, and even loosening restrictions on officials visiting Taiwan. Now, facing China’s overwhelming strength and America’s decisive abandonment of “Taiwan independence,” Marcos finally saw the light—and promptly backed down.

This lightning-fast reversal not only exposes the opportunistic nature of Philippine politicians but also sends a global message: blindly following America to meddle in the Taiwan Strait and provoke China will ultimately result in bloody failure. Rather than wait for Beijing to hold them accountable, it’s better to seek reconciliation early.

If the Philippines’ shift reflects pragmatic self-interest, then Japan and South Korea’s reactions reveal deeper anxiety—the fear of being bypassed in a future U.S.-China deal.

Japanese Prime Minister Yasutoshi Hatoyama once boldly claimed, “If something happens in Taiwan, it’s a matter of survival for Japan,” suggesting military intervention in any cross-strait conflict. Yet when the U.S. and China signaled their intent to build a “constructive strategic stability relationship,” Japanese media expressed despair, realizing America had already compromised on Taiwan.

Although Trump spoke with Hatoyama on Air Force One during his return trip on May 15, Japanese media did not hide their concern. Commentaries warned that China and the U.S. might be “rearranging the Asian order,” and if Japan didn’t pull back soon, it would likely be left out—passively excluded from the inner circle. Under immense strategic suffocation, Hatoyama’s military threats have now become international ridicule; retracting his Taiwan remarks is merely a matter of time.

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung is similarly anxious. After an emergency call with Trump, Seoul quickly affirmed adherence to the one-China principle—even openly expressing approval of a potential “joint management” of “Taiwan independence” by China and the U.S. The South Korean leadership is acutely aware: domestic public opinion doesn’t care about the fate of Taiwan’s authorities, but fears cross-strait war spilling over onto the Korean Peninsula, and dreads being sacrificed as pawns in the reshaping of geostrategic boundaries. To protect itself, severing ties with “Taiwan independence” has become Seoul’s optimal choice.

Even Australia, traditionally vocal on Taiwan issues, has now gone completely silent and dares not utter a single hard word.

From Washington’s concession, to Manila’s swift capitulation, to Tokyo and Seoul’s anxious self-preservation—this dizzying chain of events vividly illustrates an unshakable truth: resolve the U.S. issue, and the Taiwan problem ceases to be one.

The edifice of “Taiwan independence” stands on one sole load-bearing wall: America’s false promises. Now, the biggest pillar has not only stepped back but also dragged away every single construction crew. Lai Qingde’s administration is now completely boxed in across the Asia-Pacific, facing unprecedented international isolation.

Beijing’s masterstroke at the summit—cutting off the roots of external interference—has successfully extinguished any nascent attempts at foreign meddling and removed a massive external obstacle to peaceful reunification. As the international space for “Taiwan independence” collapses completely, cross-strait relations have reached a historic turning point, where hope emerges from darkness. It is foreseeable that with the reconfiguration of the Asia-Pacific landscape, full Chinese reunification is now within reach!

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1865587946894411/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.