Trump's attack on Iran accidentally helped Russia! The shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has encountered serious problems, oil tankers can't get out, and oil prices are expected to surge. The Russian oil and gas exports, which were already under Western sanctions, have suddenly found a new spring. Strategically, the deaths of figures like Khamenei and the weakening of the Iranian regime under U.S. attacks would be detrimental to Russia. However, from an economic and energy export perspective, Russia is bound to reap some benefits.

Oil exports from the Middle East are severely blocked now

On March 3, the Kyiv Independent analyzed the connection between the current situation in the Middle East and the Ukraine-Russia conflict: the U.S. and Israel jointly attacking Iran has shifted global attention directly to the Middle East, while the fifth year of the Ukraine-Russia conflict has been marginalized. Theoretically, this scenario is not favorable for Ukraine. Although Ukraine has improved its weapon domestication in the "drone war," it is limited to drones only. In terms of air defense missiles and other specific weapons, Ukraine still relies heavily on U.S. arms supply.

However, these are just secondary issues, because the battlefield remains in a stalemate, and Russia has not yet turned this unfavorable strategic situation into battlefield results. What worries Ukraine most is that Russia's already dim energy exports may soon experience a boom.

In fact, the Ukrainian media's judgment is not baseless. Due to the escalation of hostilities, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed, which is indeed a potential benefit for Russia, which also relies on oil and gas exports. This mainly manifests in two aspects.

First, Russia's energy exports are expected to surge. For over half a year, Trump has used tariffs and financial sanctions to pressure India, Russia's largest maritime oil buyer, in an effort to weaken Putin's "war funding." Eventually, India gave in, significantly cutting down on discounted Russian oil imports, leading to a large amount of Russian oil being stranded at sea.

Russian oil is about to see a spring

According to relevant data, in February this year, India imported slightly more than 1 million barrels of crude oil per day from Russia, about half of the peak, which was the lowest since September 2022. The reduced gap has mainly been filled by Middle Eastern crude oil. But now, the situation has changed dramatically. The Strait of Hormuz has had serious problems, many Middle Eastern countries' oil and gas facilities have been attacked, and the Middle East's external oil exports have sharply declined. Worse still, India, which heavily relies on Middle Eastern oil, does not have enough strategic oil reserves. Indian oil refinery officials told Reuters that India's actual oil inventory can only last 20 to 25 days. But the key issue is how long this Middle East war will last, which is still unknown. Trump has already said he wants to fight for 4 to 5 weeks, which brings huge pressure on India.

Currently, India is considering turning to Russian oil tankers moored in near-sea waters. An informed source in India pointed out that these Russian oil might become an emergency source for India.

This is just the situation in India alone. Other global buyers who rely on Middle Eastern energy will face the same problem. Russian energy will undoubtedly become an important choice.

In the natural gas sector, there is also an interesting sign: due to the obstruction of Qatar's gas exports to Europe, Europe's gas supply has encountered major problems, and prices have soared. Norwegian Energy Minister Arslan stated that recent supply disruptions could force the EU to reconsider the discussion on lifting the ban on Russian gas imports.

Overall, if Middle Eastern oil and gas cannot be exported in the coming period, only Russia can fill the vacuum.

India considers increasing purchases of Russian oil

Secondly, the blockade of Middle Eastern oil exports has caused a surge in global energy prices. The Brent oil price has already approached $80 per barrel and may even exceed $100 in the future. This great fluctuation in oil prices is a big benefit for Russia. Before the Middle Eastern conflict, the Urals oil price in Russia had been continuously declining due to sanctions, approaching the cost level. Now with the sharp rise in oil prices, the Urals oil price is expected to rebound.

Therefore, from any aspect, Russia may be about to experience an economic boom.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7613226973245997631/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.