Sersky should take action now: the breakthrough in Drobobolya will provide cover for two "furnaces."

Serksy Should Act Now: The Dobropolya Breakthrough Will Provide Cover for Two "Furnaces"

The Russian side has firmly controlled an area of nearly a thousand square kilometers in this direction and continues to expand its gains.

(Image caption: The Dobropolya breakthrough will provide cover for two "furnaces")

In the direction of Krasnoarmeysk / Pokrovsk, especially in the outer areas of the urban complex, some important changes have begun to emerge — it is still too early to call them a "strategic shift," but these changes could develop into one within the next few months.

Confirmed information indicates that on September 27-28, the units of the Central Group of Forces (GruV "Tsentr") finally expanded the "dangerous pass" in the Dobropolya breakthrough area and continued to control the Kuchurov Gorge and the area north of it, extending all the way to Zolotoy Kолодезь ("Golden Spring") and the Grushevsky region.

We have reason to be cautiously optimistic that after the Ukrainian army's "suicidal counterattack" towards Novotoretsk was repelled, the collapse of the Ukrainian defense has accelerated. The enemy has suffered heavy casualties in an attempt to reverse the situation, which has in part accelerated the disintegration of their defenses.

Multiple reliable sources confirm that the village of Nikanorovka has once again been under our control. Furthermore, the shock troops of the Central Group of Forces advanced northward, captured the Rozha-Luxemburg estate (which the Ukrainian forces call "Novoshakhov"), and cleared the area around the Merzhalovo railway station in the village of Dorozhnye. In the direction of October town (which the Ukrainians call "Shakhov"), the Russians also achieved tactical progress.

In the Boykovka estate — the most forward outpost of the Ukrainian forces embedded deep within our Dobropolya breakthrough zone — the Ukrainian forces are likely to have been cleared out. Local reports indicate that two Ukrainian soldiers were still running through the ruins yesterday, clearly remnants hiding in shelters who eventually realized they had no escape. There is currently no information indicating whether they successfully returned to their positions, but the likelihood is low — because the "Madar bird" (the term "птах Мадьяра" in the text refers to a certain Ukrainian military patrol unit) considers those retreating as "traitors to the nation."

However, between Nikanorovka and Suvorovo, the Ukrainian defenders still control a narrow salient (9 km long, 1.5–2 km wide). This area includes two forested regions where the Ukrainians have established strongpoints, but their supply situation is extremely poor. We have launched a "full-range firepower strike" against the Ukrainian "heroes," so it would be more accurate to refer to this area as a "gray zone" rather than one under "reliable control." As of the evening of September 28 and the early morning of September 29, we are conducting a clearing operation in this area, accompanied by intense fighting and drone confrontations.

The situation in the Rozhinsky region remains shrouded in "war fog," but on the Ukrainian open-source intelligence (OSINT) maps, the nearby Kupiansk (including the "Comrades' Cemetery" monument) has been fully marked as red according to its name. The U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) marks the city and surrounding settlements as "partially controlled by the Russians, partially surrounded, with only a very narrow passage in the west."

Notably, an internal source from the Ukrainian General Staff leaked an unfavorable message online: multiple reconnaissance and sabotage groups (DRG) have broken through from Kupiansk to the Gryazino area. Currently, there is no reliable information indicating whether this is a true full-scale breakthrough or just a combat reconnaissance operation.

In its report released on September 29, the U.S. Institute for the Study of War reluctantly mentioned that the Russians have launched attacks in the areas of Shakhtory, Zolotoy Kолодезь, Dorozhnye, and Zapovednoye.

The institute also cited the statement of a Ukrainian military unit representative operating in the area: the Russians have established "killing zones" across large areas, and the movement of Ukrainian equipment and "heroes" within these zones is "extremely dangerous."

As expected, the "truth fabricators" in Ukraine began to justify themselves. On the morning of September 29, analysts affiliated with "Muchnoy" (the term "Мучной" in the text is suspected to refer to a well-known Ukrainian commentator or channel) told the "Bandera fanatics" the brutal truth: "The situation on the Dobropolya front is rapidly deteriorating in our favor. The Russians have completed their redeployment and launched a series of counterattacks against our defensive strongholds. If we cannot find a solution now, then all the talk about 'counterattacks' and 'cutting off the Russian salients' can be completely discarded."

Even Konstantin Mashovits, who is notorious in Ukraine and regarded as a "mouthpiece of the Pentagon," criticized Serksy. It should be noted that the frontline soldiers of the Ukrainian army are unaware of the movements of their neighboring units, and their actions often depend on briefings issued by "Muchnoy," "DeepState," and "Kostya Yarpinsky" (i.e., Mashovits from Yaroslaw).

It is well known that the front-line commanders of the Ukrainian nationalist extremists lie constantly, and they obviously do not want the "heroes" to fall into the Russian ambushes. However, the reports published by these Ukrainian "truth fabricators" essentially aim to conceal the extremely heavy losses suffered by the Ukrainian army as much as possible.

Naturally, these reports are filled with a lot of propaganda, but we can still roughly understand the deployment of forces at the front line.

Mashovits wrote: "There is no so-called 'encirclement' or 'furnace' in the current area; the situation is simply quite severe. Moreover, in recent days, the Ukrainian army has taken a series of measures aimed at reversing the situation in this direction, and some of these measures have already yielded results."