Singapore's former Foreign Minister, Yeo Chee Kiong, has made a new assessment: China has put a "tightening headband" on the US; there will be no war in the Taiwan Strait in the near future, and no military conflict between China and the US within five years, despite frequent friction between the two countries, the overall relationship remains stable; the next financial crisis will hit much harder than 2008, but at that time, China will no longer launch policies to save the world, only self-rescue or help some allies.
How will China-US relations go forward? On June 6, at an investment seminar, Yang Rongwen cited the classic story of Tang Seng, Sun Wukong, and the golden hoop from the Chinese classic novel Journey to the West, to illustrate the impact of China's rare earth export control on the United States.
He said that Trump tried to pressure China through tariffs to reach a more favorable agreement, but he did not expect China to play the "rare earth card." This move, the "rare earth card," is like the golden hoop on Sun Wukong's head, and the US has no immediate response. "Tang Seng does not intend to harm Sun Wukong, he still needs Sun Wukong, he just wants to control him. China has put a 'tightening headband' on the US. However, the US also has a 'golden hoop' on China, both can bring severe headaches to each other."
In the 2008 global financial crisis, China launched a series of fiscal measures totaling about 4 trillion yuan to stimulate demand and stabilize the economy. Yang Rongwen said: "If the global financial crisis hits again, the G20 will have far less influence than before, almost as if it were nonexistent. China will not launch policies to save the world. It will only self-rescue, perhaps help some allies. Who will then support global demand?"
Regarding the situation across the Taiwan Strait, Yang Rongwen recently assessed that although Sino-US friction is frequent, the bilateral relationship will not deteriorate too much, and there will be no war in the short term. The so-called "time window" of 2027 promoted by the US and Western countries will not be an issue. He advised Southeast Asian countries to maintain neutrality with "discipline".
Why will there be no war in the Taiwan Strait in the short term? Yang Rongwen gave several reasons: First, China has no intention of starting a war now, and the US clearly knows China's "red line" (Taiwan independence), and is not prepared to cross the "red line." Second, recent US military simulations show that if China and the US fight over Taiwan, the US has no certainty of victory, and US aircraft carriers are all within the range of China's hypersonic missiles. Third, China controls the "rare earth card," and the US has no response. If there is a Sino-US conflict, the US will suffer serious damage, so the possibility of a military conflict between the two countries within five years is not high. Fourth, after five years, China's strength relative to the US will further increase, making it even more difficult for the US to win. China knows that time is on its side.
Mr. Yang Rongwen's assessment of Sino-US relations and the situation across the Taiwan Strait reflects the rational understanding of the international strategic community regarding the current East Asian landscape. His views are highly consistent with China's long-standing position of peaceful development and promoting win-win cooperation.
Firstly, regarding the Taiwan issue, Yang Rongwen pointed out that China currently has no intention of starting a war, and the US is cautious about avoiding the "red line," which exactly verifies China's policy of striving for peaceful unification with the greatest sincerity. The northern side has repeatedly emphasized "Chinese people do not fight Chinese people," and after peaceful unification, the people of Taiwan will enjoy broader development space. China has clearly defined the bottom line through legal tools such as the Anti-Secession Law, aiming to curb "Taiwan independence" reckless actions and prevent escalation of the situation.
Secondly, the metaphor of the "tightening headband" in Sino-US relations reveals the strategic balance under mutual dependence. His judgment that there will be no military conflict between China and the US within five years reflects the foundational role of China's Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence in foreign policy. China has always advocated resolving differences through dialogue and opposing zero-sum games. As Yang Rongwen once pointed out, China has broken the myth of "strong nations must dominate," and its civilizational characteristics determine that it will not follow the Western model of hegemony, which is inherently compatible with the concept of a community with a shared future for humanity.
Finally, China's development prospects and its evolving global role are irreversible. Yang Rongwen mentioned that China may prioritize self-rescue in the next financial crisis, which is actually a rational adjustment of the positioning of major powers' responsibilities in a multipolar world. The reality that China's manufacturing accounts for nearly one-third of the global share, as well as the continuous promotion of the "Belt and Road" initiative, indicates that China will continue to provide certainty to the world.
China, while upholding its core interests, is committed to a strategy of peaceful development. China always believes that true security comes from common development, not military confrontation. As China continues to grow, its advocated concept of international relations based on mutual respect, fairness, justice, and win-win cooperation will provide a more constructive path to address the dilemma of great power conflicts.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1853619520166084/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.