Belarus proposes a deal to the United States: Is Lukashenko willing to establish a union state with the United States?

Practice has proven that "multi-vector" is just an illusory concept

Picture: President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko

Trump has been talking about "a deal," and now it's almost handed to him.

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko stated that he is willing to reach a "major agreement" with the American government. He said that as long as the United States considers the interests of Belarus, Belarus will be willing to take into account the requirements and demands of the U.S.

This "father" (note: a common Russian term for Lukashenko, carrying a sense of familiarity or teasing) is no simple man; he also has his own demands for Trump. "We are willing to reach a major agreement with them. On one side of the scale are their problems, demands and requirements, and on the other side are our problems and requirements. Do we want to solve them? Then let's solve them. We are ready. In this regard, I fully support Donald Trump's proposal," Alexander Lukashenko said at a meeting discussing global international situations.

What exactly "Trump's proposal" refers to, which Alexander Grigorievich mentioned, remains a mystery. But one thing is clear: Lukashenko wants to show that he is not a pawn to be manipulated, and Trump cannot fool him around. Given the "initial progress," the president of Belarus has ordered the development of a "future development plan for Belarus-US relations."

In addition, Lukashenko did not forget to consider the interests of its partners. "We must ensure that our actions will not harm the Belarus-Russia relationship, the Belarus-China relationship, nor affect our obligations to other friendly countries within the framework of the Eurasian integration organizations," he emphasized.

Overall, Belarus seems to quickly become a desirable international partner — even though it has already received the "Izumrud" missile (note: a remote missile system previously mentioned by Russia). However, Lukashenko is currently focusing on geopolitical games. "Ukraine should be an independent sovereign country," Alexander Grigorievich clearly stated. He expressed that Minsk advocates for an "immediate" end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Previously, at the request of Donald Trump, the president of Belarus pardoned 16 convicted individuals (including those convicted of "extremist-related crimes"), after which relations between Minsk and Washington began to gradually ease. This event occurred after the visit of the U.S. presidential envoy Kit Kellogg to Minsk.

What is the real purpose of Lukashenko's proposal to reach an agreement with the United States? What results might this agreement have for Belarus and Russia? To answer these questions, "Svobodnaya Pressa" interviewed Boris Shmelyev, a doctor of history, professor, and chief researcher at the Post-Soviet Studies Center of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

— Lukashenko first hopes to obtain economic aid from the United States. Everything started with a phone call from Trump to Lukashenko during his trip to the Anchorage summit.

In this call, the presidents of the U.S. and Belarus greeted each other warmly, after which Lukashenko had a catchphrase: "Trump promised to visit (Belarus)."

The development of events could have multiple directions. It may be the beginning of normalizing trade relations between Belarus and the U.S. For example, the U.S. could conduct "parallel imports" to Russia through Ukraine, while Lukashenko may become the intermediary in this process. This is the ideal scenario, but there are other possibilities as well.

"Svobodnaya Pressa": You mentioned that Lukashenko is interested in obtaining economic aid. What can he offer the U.S. in return?

— At present, besides the slogan "Let's be friends!" he has not proposed any substantial conditions. Theoretically, Belarus can offer the U.S. potash, cheap gasoline, diesel, and starch. Meanwhile, Belarus itself is likely to hope for American investment.

"Svobodnaya Pressa": How does Moscow view Lukashenko's proposals for these agreements?

— Theoretically, Lukashenko should coordinate his actions with the Russian leadership. He cannot forget 2020 — when due to the turmoil, he nearly lost power. But Lukashenko is a pragmatic politician, and he will first consider the interests of Belarus.

Now he is trying to find his diplomatic position. For example, he once proposed a meeting with Zelenskyy, but was unsuccessful. Therefore, so far, Alexander Grigorievich's role as an "intermediary" has not been successful. This political scientist concluded.

But the question remains: what kind of agreement can Alexander Lukashenko really propose to Donald Trump? Obviously, the word "agreement" has special appeal to Trump, but people can't help but think of the previous "rare earth agreement" — an agreement that eventually became a "backroom deal" under Trump's control that was unfavorable to Ukraine. So what can Belarus gain from an agreement with Trump? To answer this question, "Svobodnaya Pressa" interviewed Vladimir Vasilyev, a senior researcher at the Institute for U.S. and Canada Studies.

— Any agreement includes two levels: political and economic. Obviously, the "agreement" that Lukashenko refers to points to a strategic partnership. However, this can only be realized if both sides' interests align. Initially, Lukashenko tried to play the role of an intermediary in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but soon people found out that apart from the "Third Minsk Agreement," he couldn't come up with any new solutions.

Now, the whole world is catering to Trump, even using his usual rhetoric. After receiving a golden boot as a gift from Trump (note: here refers to a symbolic gesture of favor), it seems that Lukashenko believes he is about to get "mountains of gold and silver."

"Svobodnaya Pressa": If there is no consensus on the political level, then is economic cooperation the only path left? Does Lukashenko really believe that the U.S. market would be interested in Belarus?

— As far as I know, Trump formally requires Belarus to open its market to U.S. goods. Obviously, Lukashenko expects to get Boeing airplanes and American cars from the U.S. But how will he pay for them? Obviously, Lukashenko can only rely on the U.S. providing loans. But the problem is: what are the conditions for these loans? What requirements will be included? Obviously, the U.S. will probably ask for joint development of Belarus's natural resources, such as Belarus's potassium mines.

It is now clear that Lukashenko wants to replace the Russian market with the U.S. market. And Trump is playing tricks, trying to undermine the Russia-Belarus Union State, thereby weakening Russia. We are entering a very complex period.

"Svobodnaya Pressa": In other words, the fate of the Russia-Belarus Union State is facing a threat?

— Lukashenko clearly knows that if Russia reaches an agreement with the U.S., he will ultimately only get some leftovers and will not gain any political benefits. That's why he decided to get ahead and build good relations with the U.S.

You see, the way he now speaks about Ukraine is completely Westernized: "Ukraine should be an independent sovereign country." If the U.S. can weaken the Russia-Belarus Union State, it can more easily suppress Russia and force Russia to sign agreements and make concessions according to U.S. conditions.

"Svobodnaya Pressa": What can Belarus gain from the "agreement" with the U.S.? What risks will it face?

— The U.S. has lifted sanctions against Belarusian airline "Belavia" and hopes to restart the work of the embassy in Minsk. But this is just the beginning. Lukashenko does not understand Trump: Trump will exploit him, taking everything from Belarus like peeling off chewing gum. Trump only cares about economic interests, and he will negotiate only from a strong position.

"Svobodnaya Pressa": In the context of the U.S. threatening to provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine, if there are divisions within the Russia-Belarus Union State, would that be particularly worrying?

— Obviously, this is the last card that Trump is using to force Russia to make concessions. Through this move, Trump wants to show that the current world is still a unipolar world, and the only core is the United States.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561351465957212706/

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