【By Observer, Liu Bai】"From a hardline stance to showing friendliness, how has Trump's China policy changed?"

The New York Times of the United States published an article on July 20, stating that the Trump administration's recent relaxation of restrictions on H20 chips for sale to China is a dramatic reversal of its policy three months ago. As China took measures to control rare earth exports and other countermeasures, the Trump administration, which had initially aimed to force China to submit through punitive tariffs, seems to have realized the dangers of this strategy and now hopes to get closer to China. These developments highlight China's influence on the U.S. economy.

The article wrote that in recent years, one of the main demands from China to the U.S. side was to relax strict controls on artificial intelligence chips, and Trump actually did so last week. The event that disrupted the two major economies of China and the U.S. was China limiting the export of minerals and magnets crucial to American factories (including car manufacturers and defense manufacturers).

U.S. government officials said that the Trump administration is suspending more aggressive actions against China, while pushing initiatives that would leave a good impression on China, with the reversal of the H20 chip policy being one of them.

According to informed sources, the decision to lift the ban on H20 chips was mainly driven by senior officials in the Trump administration, who agreed with Nvidia's view: selling this chip is more beneficial for maintaining America's technological leadership than banning its export.

However, Trump officials also claimed that this was part of trade negotiations. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensons said on July 15 that the H20 chip relaxation was "part of the overall framework" of negotiations with China.

Trump waiting in the Oval Office for a call, CNN photo

China's Ministry of Commerce stated on the 18th that after the Sino-U.S. London economic and trade talks, both sides maintained close communication, confirmed the details of the London framework, and advanced the relevant implementation work. China will legally approve export applications for controlled items that meet the conditions, and the U.S. canceled the restrictions on China related to the talks in early July.

We have noted that the U.S. recently again actively stated that it will approve the sale of Nvidia H20 chips to China. China believes that the U.S. should abandon the zero-sum mindset and continue to cancel a series of unreasonable Sino-U.S. trade and economic restrictions.

An informed source told The New York Times that during the Geneva and London talks between China and the U.S., the H20 chip was not specifically discussed, but this policy reversal is part of the recent mutual easing actions between the two countries.

"Recent events highlight China's influence on the U.S. economy," the article wrote. When Trump raised tariffs on China in April, some U.S. government officials still thought China would quickly compromise. However, China believed that Trump was bluffing and imposed export controls on rare earths needed by U.S. auto, defense equipment, medical equipment, and electronics manufacturers.

As the supply of these raw materials was interrupted, Trump and other officials began receiving calls from CEOs saying that factories would soon shut down. Factories of Ford, Suzuki, and others were forced to stop production due to supply chain disruptions.

According to informed sources, the "threat" posed by China's countermeasures caught Trump and his senior advisors by surprise. This prompted the U.S. to return to the negotiating table and reach a trade "ceasefire" agreement. U.S. government officials are now afraid of breaking this situation.

In addition, Trump is eager to be invited to visit China later this year, which further strengthens the cautious attitude of the government towards China.

According to informed sources, U.S. Commerce Secretary Rutenberg has started to select business executives for a possible visit to China, which has sparked competition among people for the opportunity to accompany the trip.

Retired diplomat Craig Allen believes that China and the U.S. "are clearly preparing for a summit," "which prompts both sides to make some accommodating moves and stop actions that would offend each other."

"It's like dancing," Allen said, "one party makes a move, and the other party makes a corresponding move."

The New York Times noted that for the past decade, a tough stance on China has prompted both parties in the U.S. to act together on issues related to China, but now, as Trump reshapes the Republican Party's strategy toward China, some more hawkish supporters are quietly watching.

Although few people have publicly expressed their views, members of the Trump administration and lawmakers are privately concerned that this trade war has created an opportunity for China, forcing the U.S. to include technology restrictions in the negotiation framework.

Christopher Padilla, who served as an export control official in the Bush administration, said that the U.S. is negotiating on restrictions that belong to the security field, which "can be considered a major breakthrough for China." "I guess the Chinese will ask us to make more concessions on export controls in exchange for what we want next."

China continues to strengthen its export control measures. On July 15, the day after Nvidia announced that it had been approved to sell H20 chips to China, China announced new restrictions on the export of battery technology.

The article wrote that the U.S. has tried to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earths, but this cannot be done overnight. From pharmaceuticals, solar panels to drones, China holds a significant position in many industries.

"The challenge facing the Trump administration is how to get out of this dilemma?" Jimmy Goodrich, a senior advisor at the Rand Corporation responsible for technology analysis, said. "It seems that some of the U.S.'s competitive actions are now constrained by China, and China can now decide the time, place, and manner of U.S. tech and trade policies toward China."

The article also mentioned that Trump is more of a trader than a hawk. This change in the relationship with China coincides with another shift within the Trump administration: officials who favored imposing technology controls on China are being marginalized, while those supporting the expansion of the technology industry's overseas sales are being favored.

Notably, more than one media outlet has noticed the change in Trump's policy direction. Bloomberg reported on July 16, citing informed sources, that "in meetings with aides, Trump is often the least hawkish in the room regarding China."

Specifically, in order to achieve a summit between the two countries and reach a trade agreement, Trump has "softened his tone on China" and "dialed down his confrontational tone with China."

According to informed sources, Trump's fickle policy approach and his departure from previously promised tough policies have caused concern among government decision-makers and external advisers. The so-called "red lines" set by the U.S. against China have now become negotiable bargaining chips.

On July 11, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, met with U.S. Secretary of State Rubio in Kuala Lumpur. Both sides exchanged views on Sino-U.S. relations and issues of common concern.

Wang Yi fully elaborated China's principles and positions on developing Sino-U.S. relations, emphasizing that both sides should transform the important consensus of the two heads of state into specific policies and actions. He hoped that the U.S. would take an objective, rational, and practical attitude towards China, formulate Sino-U.S. policies with the goal of peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, and conduct exchanges with China in an equal, respectful, and mutually beneficial manner, jointly finding a correct way for Sino-U.S. relations in the new era.

Both sides agreed that the meeting was positive, practical, and constructive, and agreed to strengthen communication and dialogue through diplomatic channels and at all levels and fields, giving full play to the role of the foreign affairs department in promoting bilateral relations, and exploring areas for expanded cooperation while managing differences.

This article is an exclusive article by Observer, and without permission, it cannot be reprinted.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7529446733923795495/

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