(By Observer Net, Lv Dong)

"We originally expected the global semiconductor market to reach a trillion-dollar sales volume by 2030, but it will come earlier, and there is an opportunity to achieve it by 2026," recently at the SEMICON/FPD China 2026 press conference, Feng Li, President of SEMI China, told Observer Net. Under the impetus of AI computing power and the global digital economy, the semiconductor market will not only achieve a scale breakthrough but also bring about technological innovation and a comprehensive upgrade of the ecosystem.

According to data published by WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics) in February, in 2025, the global semiconductor sales increased by 25.6% year-on-year to 791.7 billion US dollars, with a growth rate far exceeding expectations. The explosive growth of AI applications and the continuous expansion of data center infrastructure are driving both logic chip and memory chip demand to rise sharply. Looking ahead to 2026, the global semiconductor market size is expected to exceed 975 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 26.3%.

With the rapid market growth, the world's largest semiconductor exhibition - SEMICON/FPD China 2026 will open in Shanghai on the 25th of this month, expecting 1,500 companies to participate, with an exhibition area of 100,000 square meters, covering the entire industry chain including chip design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, equipment, and materials.

As an international semiconductor organization, SEMI entered China in 1985. Feng Li candidly told Observer Net that the core advocacy of SEMI China is free trade, market openness, intellectual property protection, and win-win cooperation.

She also mentioned three major industry trends in the semiconductor sector this year: AI computing power, storage revolution, and technology-driven industrial upgrading.

President of SEMI China, Feng Li

Firstly, AI computing power. Global AI infrastructure spending is expected to reach 450 billion US dollars in 2026, with the proportion of inference computing power exceeding 70% for the first time. The rapid expansion of inference scale further drives the expenditure on the entire AI infrastructure. "Building a computing foundation to handle massive requests means we need more GPUs to support inference, more HBM to alleviate bandwidth bottlenecks, and faster networks to connect these computing resources. All of this will translate into strong demand for wafer foundries, advanced packaging, as well as equipment and materials," said Feng Li.

Secondly, storage is the core resource of AI infrastructure. This year, the output value of global memory chips is expected to exceed 550 billion US dollars, surpassing the 218 billion US dollars of wafer foundry for the first time. "HBM, as a core standard configuration for AI servers, plays a significant role. In 2026, the scale of HBM will reach 54.6 billion US dollars, growing by nearly 60%, accounting for nearly 40% of the DRAM market. However, from the perspective of supply and demand, the gap in HBM remains at 50%-60%. The three major original manufacturers Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will allocate 70% of their new and adjustable capacity to HBM, making the storage revolution particularly prominent this year," Feng Li further analyzed.

Thirdly, technology-driven industrial upgrading. The 2nm and below process nodes have physically approached their limits, and the marginal effects of Moore's Law and GAA architecture are decreasing. On the other hand, costs are increasing. The construction cost of a 2nm wafer factory will exceed 25 billion US dollars, almost three times that of the 7nm era. "Advanced packaging will become a strategic consideration in the post-Moore era. CoWoS/Chiplet provides an asymmetric breakthrough path, reducing design costs and potential risks. The dual drive of advanced processes and advanced packaging will drive the entire industry's upgrading at the system level," said Feng Li.

Looking solely at technical trends, AI is undoubtedly the core driver of the global semiconductor industry over the next decade. According to IDC data, the global GPU sales scale reached 100 billion US dollars in 2025, and is expected to grow to 326.3 billion US dollars by 2030. Investment in AI and HPC will drive growth in the semiconductor equipment market. It is expected that by 2030, the share of semiconductor equipment investment driven by AI and HPC will approach 60%, rapidly driving the growth of advanced processes.

From a geopolitical perspective, the localization of the semiconductor industry has also become a prevailing trend. The United States began promoting the Innovation and Competition Act in 2021, and in 2025 launched the "Star Gate" program with up to 500 billion US dollars. China, from multiple Five-Year Plans to the first, second, and third large funds, is also fully developing the chip industry. Europe and Japan/South Korea are also investing substantial funds to support the development of semiconductors.

Under the push of policies, the global semiconductor production capacity is growing rapidly. The total capacity will increase from 25.1 million wafers per month in 2020 to 44.5 million wafers per month in 2030, with an annual compound growth rate of 5.9%. China will grow from 4.9 million wafers in 2020 to 14.1 million wafers, roughly tripling, with its market share increasing from 20% to 32%. The capacity of North America and Europe will also increase to 5.1 million and 4.1 million wafers respectively.

"China's mainstream process (22nm-40nm) capacity is growing rapidly. In 2024, it accounted for only 25%, but in 2025, it has already exceeded 30%. By 2028, China's mainstream node ratio will reach 42%, dominating the market," Feng Li told Observer Net.

The rapid expansion of chip production capacity has also spurred the prosperity of the semiconductor equipment industry. According to SEMI data, the global semiconductor equipment market is expected to grow to 145 billion US dollars in 2026, and is expected to exceed 156 billion US dollars by 2027. At the same time, the rankings of global equipment giants are also changing. Previously, the top ten were dominated by European, American, and Japanese companies. In 2023, Chinese company NAFOUN became the first Chinese company to enter the top ten.

"China has the potential to see several world-class platform-type semiconductor equipment companies. Let's wait and see," said Feng Li to Observer Net.

Capital and policy levels are also continuously exerting efforts. She added that integrated circuits have been listed as a strategic core industry in the Chinese government work report. From the capital perspective, the first large fund was 138.7 billion RMB, the second was 204.2 billion, and the third was 344 billion. China is sparing no effort in supporting the development of the semiconductor industry. "The listing of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2019 drove a big development in the semiconductor industry, creating many leading enterprises, and also brought in private capital to support innovative enterprises. The synergistic effects of the market, policy, and capital have begun to show, gradually building a unique Chinese semiconductor industry ecosystem," Feng Li said.

This article is exclusive to Observer Net. Without permission, it cannot be reprinted.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7616916653753860634/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.