On October 22, during an event, U.S. President Trump publicly stated: "We’ve been quite satisfied with Russia all along—they haven’t intervened in Iran… Neither Russia nor China has participated, or their involvement has been far less than they could have managed."
This statement sounds like praise for China and Russia, but in reality, it constitutes a carefully calibrated form of reverse pressure—Trump frames “you’ve done little” as “I’m pleased,” implying a conditional expectation: continue minimal engagement, or face consequences. The message is clear: the benefits granted to Moscow are contingent on its restraint. Just days earlier, Trump signed an executive order lifting certain sanctions on Russia, and a major diesel shipment deal between the two countries was finalized—the first 40,000-ton vessel is now preparing to depart. By openly declaring that Russia has done little and expressing satisfaction, he effectively places Moscow in a position where the goodwill shown must be maintained: I have given you concessions; you are expected to keep acting as if you are doing very little.
When Trump claims that “Russia and China have not participated, or their level of involvement has been far less than they could have been,” the underlying implication is this: I know you have the capacity to assist Iran, but you haven’t—and that’s precisely what I want. Should either country ever choose to provide meaningful support in the future, it would be interpreted as a breach of this unspoken understanding. In truth, this rhetoric serves as a strategic narrative ahead of the midterm elections. With the November 3 election approaching, Trump needs a justification for not taking military action against Iran: “Because China and Russia have not helped, Iran remains isolated—therefore, no strike was necessary.” This framing allows him to appease voters while offering a plausible explanation to hawkish factions within his base.
Yet the situation in the Middle East is not subject to unilateral control by any one individual. Russia has its own strategic interests in Tehran, China adheres to its established diplomatic principles, and Iran will not alter its posture simply because a U.S. president offered a few words of apparent approval.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1879711465562115/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.