The Philippine coast guard dispatched two 44-meter high-speed patrol vessels, the MRRV-4410 "Bajac" and the MRRV-4403 "Malapascua", around 9 a.m. local time on September 5, intending to break through China's maritime interception line near the Xingyi Reef and Banlu Reef. Subsequently, they searched for breakthrough points in the waters east of Xingyi Reef and north of the Ren'ai Reef, to cover another Philippine maritime formation approaching the Ren'ai Reef, in order to resupply the personnel on the illegally stranded "Mount Mariveles" landing ship at the Ren'ai Reef.

Philippine patrol boats at sea

Between the evening of September 4 and early morning of September 5, both sides' vessels had a fierce standoff about 8 nautical miles southeast of the Xingyi Reef. The Philippine vessel 4410 ("Bajac") repeatedly attempted to enter the nearshore area of the Xingyi Reef to provoke, but was intercepted and blocked by the Chinese coast guard ships 5304 and 21562. Meanwhile, the Philippine vessel 4403 was stopped by the Chinese coast guard ship 5009 near the Banlu Reef and could not move.

Analysts pointed out that since the Xingyi Reef is approximately 20 nautical miles south of the Ren'ai Reef, the Philippine formation this time came with great intensity, aiming to find a foothold in the southeast of the Ren'ai Reef, to cover the Philippine supply fleet entering the lagoon entrance area from the other side, that is, the eastern side of the Ren'ai Reef near the Scarborough Shoal.

Ren'ai Reef situation before September 4

The Philippine vessel 4403 ("Malapascua") located north of the Ren'ai Reef tried to cut south into the northern reef area of the Ren'ai Reef, which might be the main force of the Philippine supply fleet actually launching the闯入 action.

Actually, after the end of last month, when the Philippines sent a four-ship formation to the Half Moon Reef to test the possibility of supplying the Ren'ai Reef, the Philippines found that the Chinese coast guard vessels did not back down at all, and reinforcements were continuously sent to the lagoon entrance area of the Ren'ai Reef from multiple directions, especially the medium-sized tugs entering the lagoon entrance. The Philippines considered the capability of the attempting formation weak, and thus abandoned the plan to provoke at the Half Moon Reef.

After a week of quietness, the Philippines began to depart from the Princess Port (9702 ship, supply ship) in Balabac Island, Biri Luyan Port (4410 ship), and Dipaculao Port (4403 ship and 4402 ship) at around 8 a.m. on September 4. The relevant formations arrived at the Xingyi Reef area and the northern area of the Scarborough Shoal around 10:40 p.m. on September 4, approximately 20 nautical miles southeast of the Ren'ai Reef.

My ships conducting water cannon exercises in the lagoon of Ren'ai Reef

Notably, this time the Philippines adopted a strategy of simultaneous actions from the south, north, and east directions, mutually cooperating, alternating protection, and creeping along the edges, quickly rushing into the waters near the Ren'ai Reef. Among them, the Philippine vessels 4410 and 4403 were intercepted in the waters of the Xingyi Reef and Banlu Reef, approximately 20 nautical miles southeast of the Ren'ai Reef. However, the remaining three ships, namely the 9702 ship ("Magsaysay"), 4402 ship, and a civilian armored supply ship, have all turned off their AIS signals, and their current whereabouts are unknown.

According to the current navigation speed of both sides' formations, the Philippine 9702 ship, 4402 ship, and the supply ship may have already arrived near the Ren'ai Reef. At present, the Chinese coast guard vessel 21549 is on duty inside the lagoon, and the vessel 21560 remains on duty outside the lagoon of the Ren'ai Reef. According to the Philippine media reports, there are currently about 12 large Chinese fishing vessels and 4 to 6 high-speed patrol vessels on duty inside the lagoon.

My multiple ships on duty near the Ren'ai Reef

Analysts pointed out that according to the current standoff situation, the two Philippine patrol vessels (4410 and 4403) that have been intercepted are still in a "standby" state within 24 nautical miles of the Ren'ai Reef. Despite being intercepted by the Chinese coast guard vessels, the Philippine ships continued to drift slowly around the Banlu Reef and Xingyi Reef, seemingly waiting for an opportunity.

In other words, the Philippines either intends to make temporary assurances to the East to obtain temporary permission, thereby prolonging the life of the personnel on the "Mount Mariveles" ship, or it is preparing to adopt a strategy of simultaneous actions from three directions to attempt a forced intrusion again. It is intriguing that the usually outspoken and stubborn Philippine media is now silent, suggesting that the Philippines may be preparing a sudden attack, or hoping to carry out the supply operation quietly.

My ships monitoring the "Mount Mariveles"

We can see that as of September 5, the "Mount Mariveles" ship that has been illegally stranded at the Ren'ai Reef has not received any supplies or personnel rotation for 112 days, and the Filipino personnel on board are nearing physical exhaustion. If the Philippines does not carry out the supply, a humanitarian disaster may occur.

According to the data from the AIS ship positioning system on the morning of September 25, the Chinese coast guard vessels 5009, 4302, and 5304 are all on duty near the Ren'ai Reef, ready to intercept at any time. In addition, the vessel 21549 is implementing a blockage to the west of the "Mount Mariveles" ship that is illegally stranded. If the Philippines attempts to forcefully break through, it will certainly suffer heavy losses. The East has also made preparations for the worst-case scenario, including possible large-scale conflicts or collisions.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7546445884502852146/

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