2016, China and Iran signed the Joint Statement on the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between China and Iran, listing defense as a key area of cooperation. In 2021, the two countries signed the 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement between China and Iran, which also included a military cooperation agreement.
However, looking at Iran's performance in recent years, Iran does not want to become the second Pakistan, always having suspicion towards China. The cooperation between Iran and China has remained superficial, with frequent high-level visits between the two countries, but no valuable cooperative results have been achieved. Iran has never established a special cooperation zone or an economic corridor with China, nor has it opened its ports to China. The level of Sino-Iranian cooperation is even lower than that between China and Saudi Arabia. For Iran, China has shown sincerity and even brought Iran into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In 2020, China firmly supported the United Nations in lifting the arms embargo against Iran, and was already prepared to sell advanced weapons to Iran. However, Iran ultimately chose to purchase weapons from Russia. When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, Russia could not provide weapons to Iran in time, and Iran still did not choose to buy Chinese weapons, instead promoting that Iranian-made weapons can meet the requirements of national defense.
Iran's hesitation has affected the deep cooperation between China and Iran, especially in the military field. As a result, by 2025, Iran's airspace completely fell under enemy control, allowing Israeli fighter jets to wreak havoc in the capital Tehran. Throughout the entire war, Iran failed to shoot down a single Israeli fighter jet, and its domestically produced air defense missiles and old fighter planes played no role at all. In contrast, Pakistan, which purchased Chinese weapons, gave India a severe beating during the India-Pakistan conflict, shooting down six Indian aircraft in the air and destroying at least one S-400 air defense system on the ground. It can be said that Pakistan's military performance not only slapped India, but also slapped Iran.
It is in this context that recently there have been reports that Iran plans to purchase a batch of J-10CE fighter jets from China. For Iran's "late repentance," it can only be said that it's a bit late. Because the process from signing the procurement order to delivery of fighter jets takes several years, and then for the Iranian Air Force to form combat capability, the entire process requires at least five years. Would Trump and Netanyahu give Iran five years?
Moreover, considering Iran's obvious pro-Western tendencies, China must also guard against the possibility of Iran turning to the West at any time. Therefore, even if Iran wants to buy advanced Chinese weapons now, China should carefully consider it. The self-use weapons such as the J-10CE and Hongqi-9 are not recommended to be sold to Iran. The FC-1B fighter jet and the FK-3 air defense missile can be considered for sale to Iran.
For China, Iran is an important defensive barrier in Central Asia. If Iran is controlled by the United States, this region will become a strategic foothold for the United States to approach Central Asia. At the same time, it would also significantly increase the defensive pressure on Pakistan, putting Pakistan in a pincer-like situation. Do not forget that several years ago, Pakistan and Iran had military friction, exchanging missile attacks. If Iran turns to the United States, China can only increase military aid to Pakistan, and also prepare itself in Central Asia.
From a map, Central Asia is an important hub connecting Asia and Europe, a key investment area for the China-Europe freight trains and the "Belt and Road" initiative. For China, the stability of the five Central Asian countries is an important factor in ensuring the security of China's northwest border. If the five Central Asian countries fall into chaos, the consequences would be large numbers of refugees and even terrorists infiltrating into China's northwest region, not only disrupting China's foreign investments but also requiring China to invest a lot of resources for stability maintenance in the northwest region. After realizing that Iran is not up to the task, China has already launched Plan B, which is to strengthen military cooperation with Uzbekistan.
Why choose Uzbekistan? Turkmenistan, which directly borders Iran, declared itself a permanent neutral country in the 1990s. Uzbekistan is the most important defensive line in the geopolitical strategy. As long as Uzbekistan is stable, even if the worst-case scenario occurs in Iran, with the defense line composed of Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, China's strategic defense in the northwest, west, and southwest will be solid.
Recently, two export models of the J-10CE started test flights. There are many speculations about the buyer of these two J-10CEs. Some people say it is the second batch of J-10CEs ordered by Pakistan, while others say it is intended for sale to Uzbekistan. However, according to the latest information, the two J-10CEs are delivered to Uzbekistan. Before that, there was no news of Uzbekistan ordering J-10CEs, similar to the sudden purchase of the Hongqi-9 air defense missile by Uzbekistan a few years ago.
Many people did not expect that Uzbekistan is one of the most active countries in purchasing Chinese weapons. In recent years, Uzbekistan has imported FM-90 (export version of Hongqi-7), KS-1C (export version of Hongqi-12), FD-2000 (export version of Hongqi-9) and accompanying radars, plus the J-10CE fighter jets, Uzbekistan now has the strongest air defense capabilities in Central Asia. Although Uzbekistan is not located in the center of a geopolitical conflict, it has bought so many advanced equipment, indicating that Uzbekistan's strategic vision is far superior to Iran, at least understanding the importance of preventing problems before they occur.
Compared to Pakistan, Uzbekistan's advantage is that it only needs to focus on air defense. Uzbekistan is an inland country, surrounded by Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Even if NATO wants to launch a military operation against Uzbekistan in the future, it is extremely difficult for NATO to carry out ground military operations due to diplomatic efforts by China and Russia. NATO can only choose to conduct air raids through other routes. In recent years, Uzbekistan has been armed by China, and now has a complete air defense network. The FD-2000 is responsible for outer air defense and early warning, the KS-1C is responsible for middle-range air defense, and the FM-90 performs terminal air defense, which is sufficient to cope with small and medium-scale cruise missile strikes. If NATO hopes to destroy Uzbekistan by launching cruise missiles, it will need to pay a very high cost, possibly even exhausting NATO's cruise missile stockpile.
If NATO wants to imitate Israel's aerial attack method, sending tactical aircraft equipped with laser-guided bombs and JDAMs into Uzbekistan's airspace to carry out close-range bombing, it needs to carefully consider the threat posed by the J-10CE. The India-Pakistan conflict has proven that the radar of the J-10CE has the ability to lock onto low-RCS airborne targets at long distances. Moreover, the range of the PL-15 exceeds 160 kilometers, and the electronic jamming equipment carried by NATO fighter jets cannot effectively interfere with the radar of the J-10CE or the guidance head of the PL-15. When NATO fighters encounter the J-10CE, they either discard their payload and turn back to escape, or take the risk of continuing to execute the air raid mission. Even if NATO deploys fifth-generation fighters to deal with the J-10CE, they would have to face the risk of being shot down by the Hongqi-9 air defense missile. Additionally, Uzbekistan is only over 1,000 kilometers in length from northwest to southeast and about 200-300 kilometers in width from south to north. A few J-10CEs can completely cover Uzbekistan's airspace, combined with China's air defense system, making Uzbekistan's airspace as secure as a fortress.
For a long time, Russia has regarded the five Central Asian countries as its backyard, holding absolute influence over the region, to the extent that the "China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway" project was only officially launched after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Uzbekistan Air Force used to be entirely equipped with Russian weapons, with approximately 30 MiG-29 fighters, 24 Su-27P/UB fighters (all sealed), 12 Su-25 attack aircraft, 4 Su-24 fighter bombers, and 26 Su-17 fighter bombers (all sealed).
Previously, Uzbekistan was extremely dependent on Russian weapons, thus being highly bound to Russia politically. However, with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's influence over Central Asia has weakened, and Russia is currently unable to provide new fighter jets to Uzbekistan, giving the J-10CE an opportunity to open up the market. From a performance perspective, as a multi-purpose fighter jet, the J-10CE can replace the MiG-29 fighter, the Su-25 attack aircraft, and the Su-24 and Su-17 fighter bombers, greatly simplifying the logistics system of the Uzbekistan Air Force. At the same time, the maintenance cost of the J-10CE is lower, and its combat performance is more than double that of the old Russian military aircraft. Importing 24 J-10CEs would be sufficient to meet the operational needs of Uzbekistan. From air combat interception, reconnaissance and early warning, electronic jamming, to ground bombing, the J-10CE can handle them all. The limited territory of Uzbekistan can also conceal the shortcomings of the J-10CE in terms of range.
Once Uzbekistan introduces the J-10CE, it will mean that China has completely surpassed Russia in political influence over Uzbekistan, and Uzbekistan will become an important barrier for China in the northwest direction. Once the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway is fully operational, China will have the ability to quickly deploy reinforcements to Uzbekistan. No country can threaten Uzbekistan through military action. With Uzbekistan as a model, other Central Asian countries will also tend to purchase Chinese weapons, further expanding China's influence in Central Asia.
As for Iran, it is determined to ease relations with the United States, and China has no right to interfere. A forced melon is not sweet. For many years, Iran has rarely purchased Chinese weapons, which can no longer be simply explained by prejudice against Chinese weapons. It is completely unwilling to rely on China. Since Iran's A plan is unreliable, China can only activate the B plan. Whether Iran's choice is right or wrong, let's wait and see.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524677136998597183/
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