Zangazur Corridor to Open a Second Front Against Russia — What Does the Kremlin Expect?

Zangazur Corridor. Illustration: "Kommersant"

Why is the Zangazur Corridor not just an infrastructure project, but a "knife to the heart of Russia"? Who is the real mastermind behind strengthening Azerbaijan's power? What consequences will this have for Russia? Political analyst Arman Abovyan gives an exclusive interview to journalist Daria Aslova of Pravda.

— News from Armenia is not optimistic. Let's start with the recent news that has gone viral online, but has not yet been confirmed by Armenian authorities, known as the "Trump Bridge." What is it? What does it mean for Armenia and Russia?

— First, there is a key factor that must be considered: the strategic goals of the US, Europe, Turkey, and Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus, North Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Turkic regions of Russia. To better understand what we are talking about, it is necessary to understand a global plan called the "Pan-Britannia Project" or the "New East India Company Project."

This plan has three directions. First, to push Russia out of the South Caucasus and block Iran from the northern border. Second, to create a route from Europe to the relevant countries that is not controlled by Russia, Iran, and the relevant countries. Third, and most importantly, to build a geopolitical "noose" around Russia.

Currently, Russia's attention is focused on the western front — Ukraine. But while the focus is here, a dangerous alliance is quietly forming in the South Caucasus, behind the pleasant words of brotherhood and friendship.

This is not about Armenia — this alliance was first built in Azerbaijan, initially in Georgia. After the change of government in Tbilisi, relations with Russia were eased. Now, the main striking force of NATO advancing toward the Russian border has become Azerbaijan. After occupying Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020, under the influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan, Russia's military and diplomatic presence began to be actively pushed out.

It can now be almost certainly said that a large Turkish military base will be established near Derbent (Azerbaijan has called it an "ancient Azerbaijani city"). And Turkey is a NATO member.

Everything that is currently causing conflict in the West is being played out in a more covert way in the south. To pressure Russia from the south, several key elements are needed.

First, to shape and continuously strengthen the Ottoman or Turkic identity. We know that the intelligence agencies of Turkey and Azerbaijan are active in Russia through Azerbaijani emigrants. The Federal Security Service has already started to publish preliminary data on this.

Second, logistics support. Ensure that NATO supplies can flow unimpeded to major military and economic targets in the South Caucasus. All of this is aimed at pressuring Russia from below — towards the North Caucasus and Iran.

Armenia is the last barrier. The only obstacle to implementing the Pan-Britannia Project is Armenia. From the perspective of Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia is part of the Pan-Turkic project.

— Are we back to the concept of the "Great Game," right?

— Exactly. Just like in the 19th century, the interests of superpowers have not changed: each country strives to build a safe environment for itself. From 1945 until the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was a fragile consensus. Now, new geopolitical boundaries are being drawn. Armenia has become a key element in this boundary drawing.

This is why the Zangazur Corridor is so important. It is not just a road, but an idea. It involves 42 kilometers of territory in the Syunik region, which connects Turkey and Azerbaijan. Without these territories, neither the Pan-Britannia Project nor the Pan-Turkic Project could be realized.

— Explain to the readers: the Zangazur Corridor is a road passing through southern Armenia, theoretically connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave — Nakhchivan.

— Exactly. And Nakhchivan borders Turkey directly. That is, an uncontrolled land corridor will be formed between Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Thus, a direct route to the Caspian Sea and then to Central Asia is established. Turkey has already been very active in Central Asia: promoting its identity model, instilling the concept of the "Turkic World" among Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, Uzbeks, and Turkmen. However, these nations are independent civilizations formed outside the Turkic context. Now, their cultural uniqueness is being erased.

— This forms a group with great hostility towards Russia...

— Yes. This coalition has a common ideology, resources, language, and a population of about 300 million. This is a serious challenge to Russia's interests.

The Pan-Turkic Project is just a part of the larger "Pan-Britannia Project." Western powers — Americans, British, Europeans — are not naive. They will not allow a new geopolitical entity to threaten their interests in 30 to 50 years.

The West decided to take a more clever approach: telling the Turks — want a Pan-Turkic? You can! We also support it. But the control of key nodes must be in the hands of Americans. This is where the rumor of the "Trump Bridge" comes from.

— Still talking about the Zangazur Corridor?

— Of course. It is not just a road, but a lifeline. Touching it can paralyze the entire system. But the "Trump Bridge" itself is a pretext. There are reports that the US will lease part of southern Armenian territory for 100 years. It is said that the Armenian authorities rejected the deal. However, they have not given up the idea of handing over the road control to a third party.

Why should the control of this critical transportation line in Armenia not belong to Armenia? Why would a sovereign country give up such a right? Because the Turks, Americans, and Azerbaijanis do not want a regular road with checkpoints and customs.

They want unrestricted passage: armies, weapons, and logistics can all move freely. This is not just a corridor, but the beginning of the substantive dismantling of Armenia's national status.

In the Pan-Britannia and Pan-Turkic projects, Armenia is not the subject, but a stepping stone. The first step is to push Russia out of the region. The second step is to start annexing Russian territories: the North Caucasus and the Turkic republics. Therefore, the issue is not just about Armenia. It is no longer seen as a participant, but as a territory that needs to be cleared.

— A small obstacle on the map...

— Yes. But this small obstacle has survived for centuries due to the spirit of Armenians and our historical awareness of the boundaries of survival. And since the 18th century, thanks to the help of Russia. Giving up the sovereignty of transportation control is like inserting a needle into the heart. The needle may be small, but if it hits accurately, the person dies. This is not rhetoric, but reality.

Erdogan's office has a map. You can see it on Google. It is a map of "Greater Turkestan," including Syria, Libya, northern Iraq, and Iranian territories with Turkic-speaking populations. Erdogan has publicly stated, "The heart of the Turkic people beats in Tbilisi."

— So, this involves the so-called "Azerbaijan in Iran"?

— Exactly. By the way, "Azerbaijan" is not a nation, but a geographical name. Just like "the Ryazan nation" or "the Pskov nation." Do you understand the problem now?

On the same map of Greater Turkestan, there are also Altai, Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, and the North Caucasus — these are all Russian regions. Who would find this funny? In 2018, if I had said that Ukraine would attack Moscow with drones, I would not have been believed. But now this is a reality.

Armenia is the key barrier. But in Moscow, a powerful Turkic and Azerbaijani lobbying group has formed, which is trying to smear Russia's military and diplomatic presence in Armenia. After the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenians began to suffer from ethnic cleansing. This is the historical homeland of Armenians; eliminating them is destroying the natural barrier against Turkish and Anglo-Saxon expansion.

Now, Aliyev's courage is greater than that of Ukraine 15 years before the war. He incites Ukrainians to "not yield" and "struggle for liberation." In other words, he encourages them to continue the war and kill Russians. At the Shusha forum, the deputy head of RIA Novosti praised him. Everyone remained silent and smiled. This is an insult.

Russia cannot leave the South Caucasus. Otherwise, it will mean losing the North Caucasus, Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, and the entire border with Central Asia.

— The first target is Dagestan?

— Turkey has been active in the North Caucasus since 1991. You can count the number of mosques, educational centers, and students sent to Turkish universities there. The conflict between Russia and Turkey is not accidental. You have fought 13 wars with Turkey. The areas of interest remain the same today: Crimea, the Caucasus, and Turkestan.

I understand: Russia is seeking balance. I am not teaching Russians how to protect their interests — you know what to do yourself. But now it is time for neutral policies to stop working. Turkey is a mediator on the surface, but actually a supplier of drones for the Ukrainian armed forces.

Have you forgotten the killing of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh in 2020? Who was punished? Who was held accountable? Who is responsible for the downed Russian helicopter? No one.

I understand that geopolitics should not be mixed with emotions. But all of Azerbaijan's actions clearly show that they are focused on Turkey's project, not Russia's. Everything happening in Armenia now is a natural continuation of the Turkish project.

— We are resisting NATO in Ukraine to maintain our independence, but next to us, Azerbaijan claims to establish a NATO base. "Trump Bridge" was supposed to split Armenia and cut off our connection to the south. NATO is approaching from the other side — the Caucasus direction. And we are not ready to face two fronts.

— You are not alone. You are simply fulfilling the obligations of the alliance. But the opposing side — Turkey, Azerbaijan — is taking advantage of this. In the East, keeping promises is seen as weakness. This is the root of the 13 Russo-Turkish wars. Now, Russia is trying to remain neutral towards Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Armenia. But this neutrality has already brought problems. We have seen Aliyev's statements and Turkey's anti-Russian policies, which are not just words, but a real threat to Russia's territorial integrity.

Some may say, "This is alarmist." No, it is an old strategy that started in the 19th century. Only if Russia makes a firm and rapid response to any attempt to change the regional balance can it be stopped. But Russia chooses to talk about brotherhood and neutrality.

Armenia is not the current Prime Minister Pashinyan. It is a system, a long-term ally of Russia. This Christian country has walked a long path with you, often surviving only because of Russia's help. But when Russia's attention is focused on Ukraine, its influence in the Caucasus weakens. NATO immediately fills this vacuum.

— But Russia's official position is non-interference in internal affairs. Now it is clear that Pashinyan will facilitate the establishment of the corridor between Turkey and Azerbaijan. Is there another way?

— Pashinyan is a person who messes everything up. This does not need to be discussed. But the problem is not with him, but with the long-standing neglect. "A single ant hole can break a thousand-mile dike" — and this "ant hole" is caused by years of negligence.

Armenians ask: "Russia is our ally. Why did Russia stay neutral when Armenians were expelled from Nagorno-Karabakh?" This is not an accusation, but a fact.

Perhaps, tactically, this worked, delaying the opening of the second front. But strategically, it is a failure.

The pressure on the region is not from Azerbaijan, but from the forces behind it: Turkey, Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, Pakistan. Ursula von der Leyen openly called Azerbaijan a strategic partner of Europe in the energy field.

Russia chose to ignore this. Perhaps, tactically, this seemed correct. But strategically, the North Caucasus has now been listed as one of Turkey's targets. This concerns access to the Black Sea. Just look at Azerbaijan's unreasonable territorial demands for Derbent. This is not an accusation, but a fact.

Russians do not want to talk about it, but Azerbaijani media openly report it. In a few months, the largest NATO base may appear within 30 kilometers of Derbent. This is not an assumption, but a reality. It will control the area from Voronezh to Nalchik.

— Is this already a second front?

— Of course. The earlier you acknowledge this, the sooner you can take action. For Russia, it is beneficial that the Zangazur Corridor is controlled by Armenia rather than NATO. Because nations may change, but the people remain. But now, you are playing chess with those who are boxing with you.

I am not worried as an observer. All of this is directly related to Armenia. If you fail, we will also disappear! They will physically vanish! And the Zangazur Corridor is not just a road, it is part of the war, one of the "golden bullets" shot at Russia.

— Why is Iran silent? Has it been weakened?

— Iran is not silent. It is acting deeply and cautiously in its own way. By the way, some changes are also happening within Iran, and the Turkic lobbying group is active there as well. But the key is not here. For example, Iran has deployed 140,000 troops on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, even during the recent escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, without withdrawing them. A few days ago, Iran and Russia held joint naval exercises in the Caspian Sea. Tehran has repeatedly emphasized that cutting ties with Russia is unacceptable.

— So, this is also related to the Zangazur Corridor?

— Of course. Iran openly calls this its red line. But paradoxically, in the context of these serious geopolitical statements, both Iran and Russia have not taken effective measures on the ground to resolve the crisis. For example, everyone talks about Iran joining the Eurasian Economic Union. But how to achieve this? Via Azerbaijan? Impossible. Via Georgia? Very difficult. Only one way remains — Armenia. Only one.

Now, there are two important points. First, to objectively recognize the reality. Second, to combat the pro-Azerbaijani and pro-Turkish lobbying groups within Russia. I am not trying to provoke the relationship between Armenians and Russians, or Russians and Azerbaijanis. It has nothing to do with ethnicity. If Russia is pushed out of the South Caucasus even tactically, it will lead to instability in the North Caucasus. It is inevitable.

All of this is part of the "Great Chessboard" plan mentioned by Brzezinski in the 1990s. Forget the names of Trump, Biden, Obama, and Sunak. It doesn't matter. There is a plan, and in this plan, the key location is Armenia. A mere 42 kilometers of the Zangazur Corridor is a knife to the heart of Russia.

— Only 42 kilometers.

— But they may play a decisive role. Yes, I understand that Russia finds it difficult to cope with two fronts at the same time. But the fact is, the second front has already opened. Right now, the president of a country that has built its ideology on occupation openly tells Ukrainians, "Continue the fight." He also calls Armenia "Western Azerbaijan."

I am not teaching Russia how to protect its interests. I am protecting my own interests, which directly depend on Russia's success in protecting its interests. If Russia fails, we will also disappear. Armenia is not just a neighboring country, it is a strategic defensive line. Therefore, everything that is happening now is closely related to our two countries. In short, this is not a local war, not a personal grudge, but a systemic threat.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7534920404016874024/

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