U.S. Think Tank: Russian Military Deaths Unprecedented Since WWII, Ukraine-Russia Battle Loss Ratio May Be Approaching 8 to 1
The war in Ukraine has lasted over four years, and battlefield casualties continue to grow. A recent study by the U.S.-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveals that since the outbreak of the conflict, total military deaths, injuries, and missing personnel from both Russia and Ukraine have exceeded 2 million.
According to data released by CSIS, Russia has borne the brunt of military losses. The study estimates that since Russia launched its military campaign against Ukraine, cumulative Russian military casualties—including deaths, injuries, and missing persons—have reached approximately 1.4 million. Of these, around 400,000 to 450,000 are estimated to be fatalities, with the remainder consisting of injured or missing personnel.
In contrast, Ukraine’s military losses are significantly lower than those of Russia. The study suggests that Ukrainian military deaths, injuries, and missing personnel total between 525,000 and 625,000, including roughly 125,000 fatalities.
The report notes that, when compared to historical wars, the scale of Russia’s losses in this conflict has reached an exceptionally high level.
CSIS states that Russia’s losses on the battlefield in Ukraine exceed those of the Soviet-Afghan War in the 1980s by more than 28 times; surpass the combined losses from Russia’s First and Second Chechen Wars in the 1990s and early 21st century by over 18 times; and exceed the total military losses incurred by Russia and the Soviet Union since World War II by more than ninefold.
The report also highlights that the number of Russian military deaths in Ukraine now exceeds four times the total number of U.S. military fatalities across all conflicts since World War II, and is more than nine times the total Russian military deaths since World War II.
Besides cumulative losses, CSIS has also analyzed the evolving trends in battlefield casualties for both sides so far this year.
The report says that since the beginning of this year, Ukraine has intensified its counteroffensives and extensively deployed drones. According to CSIS estimates, the Russian military is currently losing over 30,000 personnel per month, while new recruits amount to only about 27,000 per month—meaning newly added forces are insufficient to fully offset battlefield losses.
Meanwhile, the casualty ratio between the two sides has shifted. For much of the conflict, the loss ratio between Russia and Ukraine was roughly 2:1 to 3:1—meaning for every 2 to 3 Russian soldiers lost, Ukraine suffered 1 death.
However, CSIS believes this ratio likely approached 8:1 in the first half of 2026.
At the time this research was released, Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, was once again hit by a Russian air strike. During the night of July 1 to 2, Russia launched drones and missiles toward Kyiv, launching a new round of attacks. Several people were killed and injured. According to information released by Ukrainian authorities, at least five of Kyiv’s ten administrative districts were targeted.
On another front, the impact of the war on Russia’s energy infrastructure is beginning to affect neighboring countries. As reported by Reuters on July 2, the government of Kyrgyzstan formally requested assistance from Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan to ensure stable fuel supplies.
Kyrgyzstan stated that this move stems from concerns that Ukraine’s continued drone strikes on Russian oil refineries could lead to fuel shortages.
As a Central Asian nation with a population of around 7 million, Kyrgyzstan imports over 90% of its gasoline from Russia. Meanwhile, Russia itself is facing serious fuel shortages due to Ukraine’s attacks on energy infrastructure. Last week, Russian President Putin indicated that Russia might ban diesel exports and acknowledged that domestic diesel supply shortages are worsening.
The Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy stated in a statement that formal requests have been sent to relevant authorities in the Russian Federation, Republic of Kazakhstan, Republic of Belarus, Republic of Azerbaijan, Republic of Uzbekistan, and the Republic of Turkmenistan to ensure continuous and stable fuel supply.
In June this year, Kyrgyzstan had already imposed price controls on certain retail fuel sales.
Additionally, the Association of Kyrgyz Oil Traders reported that some gas stations are experiencing shortages of AI-95 gasoline, although AI-92 gasoline inventory can still sustain operations for 30 to 45 days. Diesel, which is crucial for the agricultural harvest season, remains adequately supplied.
Like other Central Asian nations, due to close economic ties with Russia, Kyrgyzstan has repeatedly experienced inflationary pressures since Russia launched its military operation against Ukraine in 2022. Under Western sanctions, trade originally destined for Russia has undergone significant adjustments, and Kyrgyzstan has gradually become an important transit hub for such trade.
Source: rfi
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1869600631577865/
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