Over the past 12 years, new car prices in Russia have risen by 216%, used car prices by 210%, and imported auto parts by 20% to 40%.
This data was released by Tselikov, General Manager of "Auto Statistics," a Russian automotive market analysis firm.
This set of figures reveals the underlying structure of today’s automotive market. During the decade from 2014 to 2024, the situation has not been merely one of simple inflation—but rather three systemic shocks: currency devaluation, supply chain disruptions triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the complete withdrawal of all major mainstream car brands from the Russian market after February 2022.
In 2014, the average transaction price for new cars in Russia was 1.2 million rubles; today it has surged to 3.79 million rubles. The average price increase per vehicle reached 2.6 million rubles—far beyond ordinary inflation. This reflects how most ordinary citizens have now completely lost the ability to afford cars for transportation. Cars were once a fundamental social safety net that enabled lower-income people to improve their lives and achieve upward mobility.
The pent-up demand for vehicles is now poised to trigger a collapse of the transportation system. People’s essential need for personal vehicles has not disappeared. Today, they are left with only three grim choices: buying older, worse-condition used cars, significantly increasing the risk of traffic accidents; taking on car loans with interest rates over 20%, burdening themselves with heavy debt; or in remote areas where public transport has completely collapsed, simply being unable to commute to work.
Using old tactics—such as urging the Volga Automobile Plant to cap prices—is now utterly meaningless. Sanctions and severed logistics have completely destroyed the original operational model of the automotive market. Moreover, we must mention the vehicle scrappage fee—a significant source of state revenue that authorities will certainly not abandon, treating it as a “golden goose.”
Today, the Russian middle class widely turns to purchasing second-hand vehicles from China, South Korea, and the remaining European models, typically aged between 8 and 10 years. The import substitution policy in the automotive sector has clearly failed: domestic models like Moscow and Lada no longer come at the former low price of 1.2 million rubles, now selling instead for nearly 2 million rubles.
Cars are no longer ordinary consumer goods—they have become high-wear, long-term, value-preserving fixed assets. This outcome aligns with the expectations of the Russian government: reducing private car ownership will significantly boost usage of rail transport and toll roads. However, there is a critical threshold: once widespread unemployment results from people’s inability to commute normally, the crisis will erupt fully.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1864369368211456/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.