Russian and Chinese experts: The US-China trade war is intensifying and may enter a strategic stalemate phase.

The Ministry of Commerce of China issued a statement on Tuesday, indicating that if the US "insists on its own course," China will inevitably see it through to the end. This statement was made in response to US President's threat that if China does not cancel the measures imposing a 34% tariff on US imports, the US will impose a 50% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US and terminate all trade and tariff policy negotiations with China.

Alexei Maslov, Dean of the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University and an expert at the Valdai Discussion Club, told Russia's Sputnik News in an interview that this is the first time China has been given an ultimatum in these years.

Maslov said, "The key point is that China's statement in response to this ultimatum indicates that it will not only resolve all issues through negotiation, meaning that China is unlikely to unilaterally reduce tariff barriers. The speed at which China responds to US actions and the tone of its statements have clearly changed, becoming more assertive and rapid. China is very clear that this situation cannot resolve itself, normal dialogue with the US is impossible, so a proportional response must be made."

He added, "China has many countermeasures, including countermeasures involving rare earth metals. Moreover, there are numerous American enterprises within China, with manufacturing and import-export trade companies generating revenues of hundreds of billions of dollars. In this context, some restrictive measures may take effect, and China may respond to Trump's administration policies by increasing some tariff barriers."

He continued, "Of course, China's position is that everything should be resolved at the negotiating table rather than through ultimatums. At the same time, China is fully aware that America's systemic policies aim to maximize the restriction of China's overall strength. China will undoubtedly expand cooperation with other countries, including cooperation with Southeast Asian countries and Russia, and open up new economic cooperation opportunities."

Mei Xinyu, a member of the National Macroeconomic Association and the National Society for Land Economics, told Russia's Sputnik News that the development trend of the US-China trade war needs to be viewed from a long-term perspective.

He said, "This tariff dispute is actually a continuation and escalation of the US-China trade war in 2018. As early as when the trade war erupted in 2018, I pointed out that this would be a 'general war + protracted war.' Trump's adoption of a 'full coverage' tariff policy, I believe, can be countered by the following principles for China: First, forward-looking planning, i.e., pre-arrangement and preparedness; second, sustainability, requiring adequate preparation of measures and building a 'offensive and defensive' protracted war system to cope with multiple rounds of engagement with the US, because the trade war obviously won't end after one round; third, attention to cost-benefit, in other words, while implementing tariff countermeasures, China must ensure both the intensity and effectiveness of the countermeasures against the US and also maintain domestic economic stability and other normal international trade order. Overall, in response to the trade war policies implemented by the Trump administration, China's countermeasures show a diversified trend, and may extend to non-trade areas in the future. Additionally, it cannot be ruled out that after multiple rounds of bargaining, the US-China trade war may enter a strategic stalemate phase, and then further observation will be needed regarding the effects and impacts of these measures."

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1828846037511178/

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