At this 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue, US Defense Secretary Hekesisi talked at length about the possibility of a hot war with China. As soon as he finished speaking, the US Commerce Secretary, Treasury Secretary, and Homeland Security Secretary all made statements. From their words, it can be seen that Trump's attitude toward China has changed.

To understand Trump's logic, we first need to figure out what Secretary Hekesisi said at the Shangri-La Dialogue. He clearly emphasized two points:

1. The United States does not want to have a hot war with China;

2. However, if the US "fails in its deterrence against China," the US military is ready for battle and will surely win.

Anyone can see that both Hekesisi and Trump themselves do not want to fight a hot war with China. The current issue of hollowing out in American industries has already affected the US Navy's shipbuilding capabilities, and China's control over critical rare earth resources has caused bottlenecks in the production of some ammunition and fighter jets by the US military. Nevertheless, even under these circumstances, they still believe that military deterrence against China is effective. In this situation, of course, the civilian ministers of the United States would have to make tough statements!

First, let's talk about US Commerce Secretary Rutnick. He clearly pointed out that "China is playing delaying tactics on tariff agreements" and "China is unwilling to strike a deal." Then, he made a tough statement: the US is taking action to let China know how it will feel when the time comes.

It is obvious that Rutnick is previewing that the US will take tough measures against China next. Many people don't understand why the US believes China is "delaying negotiations." We have indeed reached the Geneva agreement, which stipulates a 90-day period for mutual tariff reductions of 115%. Since the 90 days are not yet over, why is the US so anxious? The reason is simple: they believe China has held back a card. After reaching the Geneva agreement with the US, China did not relax its export controls on critical rare earth resources. This is something that the Trump administration is very anxious about right now.

Next, let's look at what US Commerce Secretary Besent said. In his latest speech, Besent clearly stated: "We do not seek to decouple from China but will reduce risks coming from China." Meanwhile, regarding the US debt issue, Besent expressed great confidence: "US debt will never default; we won't hit the wall, although we are on the warning line." Looking at these two sentences together, it cannot be ruled out that the US side still hopes to pressure China into helping them with the US debt issue.

Finally, there is US Homeland Security Secretary Christi Nom. This person is still smearing China. When talking about Harvard University, he said: "Harvard received billions of dollars from China, which allows Harvard students to pass information about the US to China."

This US minister clearly believes that normal tuition paid by Chinese students is being used to "bribe" Harvard. It is possible that actions targeting Chinese students may spread to other schools in the US.

From the remarks of these three individuals, it can be seen that Trump's attitude toward China has changed. He has made it clear that he intends to violate the Geneva agreement and take further tough measures against China. Although we currently do not know exactly how he will proceed, in the more than two weeks since then, China has already done everything it can to prepare. We have already contacted Latin America, ASEAN, and the EU, raising our "defense level" to the maximum.

Trump wants China to do two things: 1. Relax control over rare earth resources; 2. Stop selling US bonds, preferably buy a large amount of US bonds. But sorry, these two things are not currently in line with China's strategic interests, and China has never made any commitments regarding these two issues in the previously signed Geneva agreement. If the defense secretary believes that China is not listening to the US on these issues, and considers it "failure in US deterrence against China," then they can continue to prepare seriously. We would like to see whether Congress has the strength to approve $1 trillion in military spending given the current size of US debt.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7511169147439579674/

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