China News, June 27 (Reporter Bai Lu) Since the 13th, the conflict between Israel and Iran has rapidly evolved in an unexpected direction, drawing widespread attention and concern from the international community. On the 26th, during the media briefing of the 13th World Peace Forum and the 2025 "Tsinghua Salon" media salon, Yan Xuetong, Honorary Director of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, outlined the timeline of the Israel-Iran conflict. He believes that the United States does not have as much initiative in this war as many people imagine, but is more likely to be dragged into it by Israel. He pointed out that for a superpower like the United States, if major decisions such as overseas military operations are made only out of necessity and without alternatives, how can there be any certainty in the international situation?
Yan Xuetong gave a lecture titled "International Order Without Global Leadership." (Photography: Bai Lu)
· "In international relations, it's not always 'the dog wags the tail,' and 'the tail wags the dog' is also common."
Based on the timeline of the Israel-Iran conflict and statements from all parties, Yan Xuetong believes that the United States' control over Israel is not as strong as imagined. Instead, Israel is the main driver of the war. The legitimacy of the Trump administration was based on the interests of the American people, and its domestic and foreign policies should revolve around this foundation. However, getting involved in the Israel-Iran conflict clearly does not align with the interests of the American people or the goal of "making America great again," and seems more like being dragged into it at the last moment by Israel.
In fact, Israel's influence on the U.S. political scene is far greater than expected. Both parties in the U.S. find it difficult to escape Netanyahu's influence on the government, and even passed the "Anti-Semitism Awareness Act." "It means you not only cannot act against Jews, but even having such thoughts is illegal," said Yan Xuetong. He believes that this law violates the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution regarding freedom of speech, indicating the significant impact Israel has on the United States.
In the real world, military powers like the United States are not omnipotent. They cannot quickly end the Russia-Ukraine war or force an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Even for countries providing military aid, they cannot make the final decision.
Yan Xuetong pointed out that in international relations, it is not always "the dog wags the tail" (a big power dominates a small one), but "the tail wags the dog" (a small country drags a big one into war) is also a common phenomenon. "However, historical experience tells us that when a superpower gets involved in a war, it does not necessarily mean the war will end quickly. On the contrary, it may lead to the escalation of the war."
· Macro-level judgment for the future world
Yan Xuetong pointed out that the second term of the Trump administration continued the first term's anti-globalization policies. Currently, the international order is shifting from globalization to anti-globalization, increasing uncertainty, mainly manifested in military security and economic cooperation.
In terms of military security, Yan Xuetong believes that military conflicts are on the rise and gradually expanding outward, with increased risks of nuclear proliferation. According to the relevant provisions of the international nuclear non-proliferation mechanism, nuclear states have the responsibility to provide security guarantees for nuclear projects under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency. However, three Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan—are all within the scope of the IAEA's safeguards and monitoring, yet were attacked by the nuclear state—the United States. The U.S. military strike on Iran clearly violates this provision. The result will be a loss of trust in nuclear states by non-nuclear states. "When more and more countries doubt nuclear states, their possibility or thought of developing nuclear weapons could increase, which is very detrimental to international nuclear non-proliferation." In addition, in a world of anti-globalization, human rights are seriously violated. In the Gaza war, Israel targeted schools and hospitals, causing massive casualties. "Some countries disregard the laws of war and even refuse to make verbal commitments."
In terms of economic cooperation, Yan Xuetong believes that specific anti-globalization actions, such as the U.S.-China trade war and sanctions against Russia caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led to disruptions in the supply chain, and the new supply chains are shorter and involve fewer countries. Moreover, with "reciprocal tariffs" sweeping the globe, tariff sanctions have become the first tool of U.S. economic cooperation. "First consider sanctions, and then cooperate under the premise of sanctions becomes a common method for the U.S. in external cooperation. This will lead to tariff retaliation among countries, and mutual sanctions will become a normal phenomenon in the economy," said Yan Xuetong.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521915131173896742/
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